As we head into Gameweek 16, there are more FPL tips to help your team selections – this week Big Man Bakar answers eight more pressing questions that will be rattling around a lot of manager’s heads.
FPL Tips For GW16: Big Man Bakar Tackles Eight BIG Questions
Respected FPL tips expert, Big Man Bakar gives you his reasoning behind some big football transfer possibilties head of gameweek 16.
Read on to see if you agree or disagree with Bakar’s answers – with plenty of time still left to get those all-important transfers in before the deadline.
Q) Gabriel – keep or sell?
This week’s uncertainty around Gabriel doesn’t change my view of him as one of the strong long-term FPL tips picks.
Arsenal’s impressive data coupled with Gabriel’s goal threat makes him an easy hold for those who have a strong enough bench to cope with his potential absence.
For those with a weak bench, I’d look at moving him on to Trent.
Q) Who is the best captain this week?
Bookmaker probabilities with the best football betting sites in the UK to score or assist this week.
- Palmer 75%
- Salah 73%
- Isak 67%
- Haaland 67%
- Saka 67%
As you can see, it’s a fairly close call between Palmer and Salah this week.
Both Palmer and Salah are operating close to 1 xGi per 90 this season so there’s nothing in their data to split them.
I’m currently leaning towards captaining Palmer because Brentford’s defensive data is worse than Fulham.
Fulham are conceding 1.2 xG per 90 this season, as opposed to Brentford’s 1.7. Looking further into the data, Brentford’s away data is even worse than their home data.
Brentford are conceding 2 xG per 90 away from home this season, which is a far contrast from their xGc of 1.3 per 90 at home.
Only Ipswich and Leicester are conceding more xG away from home this season, making Brentford clearly a team to target this week.
Q) Initial thoughts on the Assistant Manager chip?
I’m struggling to come up with a strong opinion about the chip.
I think the chip to be super powerful, which will bring a lot of variances into play, especially with the “table bonus” rule.
I’d expect it to be worth 35-45 points, which is a lot of points when you look at it.
That’s not something which I feel comfortable with, but then again, it’s something that is likely to work in the favour of engaged managers like us. As we draw nearer to it, I’ll have some more FPL tips to help use it to our best advantage.
Q) Trent worth buying this week?
Trent is probably the best defender to own in the game at this point.
The fact that he has had a week of rest surely bodes well for his minutes going forward and a potential double Gameweek to follow surely adds to his appeal.
He ranks first in xGI (expected goal involvement) among all defenders while being part of the defence conceding the fewest xGC (xG conceded) in the league.
With promising fixtures ahead, he seems like a reliable set-and-forget choice for the long term.
Q) Enzo Fernandez worth considering?
Enzo has definitely caught my eye in recent weeks.
He’s played 90 minutes in four consecutive fixtures, posting good underlying data playing in an advanced position.
Crucially, he’s priced only £5.0m and has an amazing run of fixtures to follow.
What worries me though is the fact that Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia could end up playing in midfield with Malo Gusto slotting in as the right back in some of the easier games.
That may put Enzo’s position and role in the team at risk, which is why I’m still happy to wait and see with him for a couple of more weeks.
Q) Dominic Solanke – keep or sell?
Solanke’s output has dropped off in recent weeks but for most teams, I believe there should be bigger fires to put out.
Given the packed fixture list, Solanke is a strong hold for this week’s FPL tips.
Spurs are ranked in the top five teams for expected goals (xG) this season, with Solanke right up there among the league’s top forwards in the xG charts.
He’s completely nailed for starts and should be a 90 minute man on most days.
Q) Rico Lewis – keep or sell?
Who are the best replacements?
I think most Lewis owners will find it difficult to keep Lewis as a result of defensive problems to address.
If you’re in a position where you can afford to keep him, I probably still would as Lewis should keep on playing most games after his suspension with Ake injured.
However, if you don’t have the bench strength to cover, I’d sell him for Colwill. Chelsea’s fixture list up to Gameweek 22 looks encouraging, creating potential for defensive improvement.
The bookmakers expect the same – Chelsea are ranked in the top five teams for bookmakers’ clean sheet probability in four of the next six Gameweeks. Colwill is the most secure starter in the Chelsea defence, and at £4.5m should be good value for money.
Q) Bryan Mbeumo – keep or sell?
My stance with Mbeumo is still the same as it was in earlier weeks.
It’s obviously easier to justify keeping him after a 13-point haul but irrespective of that, it’s difficult to sell a penalty taking talisman for his team who is likely to start all the games in December.
His expected goal involvements per 90 remain strong over a larger sample size this season, making him worth holding.
This week’s fixture is challenging, but Brentford’s strong home record suggests returns are likely against Forest next week.
Eberechi Eze interests me as a potential replacement, but he’s only worth considering for Palace’s fixture swing after Gameweek 17.
Q) Bruno Fernandes – keep or sell?
If I had Bruno, I’d be looking at keeping him for the foreseeable future.
Very much like Mbeumo, selling Fernandes seems like a luxury at this point.
His underlying data is strong, he’s playing in an advanced role since the return of Mainoo and he’s going to start all games in the congested period.
Q) Mark Flekken – keep or sell?
Best goalkeeper to buy this week?
A goalkeeper transfer is generally never high on the list of my priorities, but Brentford’s upcoming fixture schedule means that Flekken has reached “sell when you can” territory.
Brentford’s defensive data is really poor, which is surprising to see given that generally Brentford have been in the top 10 teams for xG conceded in recent seasons.
I’m considering Alisson as a replacement, given Liverpool’s excellent defensive metrics and the allure of a potential double in Gameweek 24.
