As of July 24, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) leads in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.
Trump’s polling average stands at 52%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 18%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.57, DeSantis’ share price is $0.20, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s share price is at $0.13. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election were held today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.
President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 35% polling average, with no other candidates polling at or above 10%, and a $0.67 PredictIt share price. Two other candidates have a share price at or above $0.10. California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) stands at $0.22, and environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. stands at $0.10.
Newsom is the only candidate of those mentioned above to have not announced a 2024 presidential campaign.
Additional reading:
- Presidential election, 2024
- Democratic presidential nomination, 2024
- Republican presidential nomination, 2024
