Ben Davis: ‘This was the right move’
It was the right move. Joe Biden’s dropping out of the race at this late stage is unprecedented and risky. The risks of a Trump presidency are far higher, though. The president was in a position where winning was incredibly unlikely, floundering in the polls, facing a major revolt from his party, and unable to fix the critical concern voters have - his age. A move to a candidate in Kamala Harris who can forcefully make the case against Donald Trump, barnstorm the country, do town halls and press conferences, and inject energy into the political moment offers Democrats a chance to catch up and beat Trump.
Had Biden done these things, he could have held on after his shocking debate performance. But the fact that he was unable to make his case publicly and energetically confirmed people’s fears in the first place. Both Biden’s defensive posture over the last few weeks and the oftentimes shambolic slow-motion movement against him by party elites caused great harm. Biden bowing out and endorsing Harris may mean that episode is soon forgotten.
Endorsing Harris, rather than entertaining ideas for some sort of “blitz primary”, was also the smart move. It allows the party to start campaigning vigorously again immediately. It puts the kibosh on any sort of “donor coup” that would result in a more conservative candidate that many progressives feared. Currently, Trump is still the favorite in this election, but a Harris campaign gives Democrats a much higher ceiling than the Biden one did. Trump is still deeply unpopular, and Harris has a great chance to capitalize. We will see if she takes it.
Ben Davis works in political data in Washington, DC
Richard Wolffe: ‘This election is now about old versus new’
The Trump campaign can pretend like they have a plan to run against Kamala Harris, but there are no plans that are worth the pixels they’re written on.
Nobody in politics or the media today has any working experience of the presidential nomination process in the era of smoke-filled rooms, party bosses, or any kind of convention that wasn’t already locked up before the delegates arrived.
Nobody except for Joe Biden, who just secured his legacy of an epic lifetime in honorable public service by voluntarily relinquishing the nomination.
Whoever becomes the Democratic presidential nominee has already turned the Trump narrative on its head.
Instead of strength versus weakness, this election is now about old versus new. No amount of Trumpy bleating about the Democratic primaries, or Biden’s record, will change that.
For Democrats, it will be hard – but not impossible – to seek to draw the greatest possible contrast with Donald Trump. And the greatest contrast to an old racist misogynist is a woman of color.
The drive to lock up the nomination for Kamala Harris will be swift and intense. But it is unlikely to happen without Harris proving herself on the public stage. The process will be a messy mixture of high-minded rhetoric and low-minded horse-trading.
There will be debates, and speeches, and endless blather on social media. The last Harris campaign did not excel at any of those tests.
Is there enough time for an orderly process? You betcha! The Biden meltdown lasted all of three weeks, and the outgoing president was accused of dragging things out. The Trump assassination attempt was all of one week ago, and it might as well have been last year.
Back in the 1960s, when they still had open conventions, the British prime minister Harold Wilson famously said that a week was a long time in politics.
There is a month before the end of the Democratic convention, which is more than enough time for several candidates to rise and fall before the balloons drop on the party’s presidential nominee.
Richard Wolffe is a Guardian US columnist
Lloyd Green: ‘Harris must now reunite her party’
On Sunday, Joe Biden declared that he would no longer seek reelection, an announcement that should have instead been made soon after the 2022 midterms. “If the Lord Almighty came down and said, ‘Joe, get out of the race,’ I’d get out of the race,” Biden told George Stephanopoulos of ABC little more than two weeks ago. The good Lord apparently works in mysterious ways.
Biden’s exit throws a wrench into Republican hopes of painting Donald Trump’s opponent as old or addled. Kamala Harris, 59, his likely adversary, is nearly two decades younger than the former president. Come the fall, the contrast will be stark.
Congressional Democrats must also be heaving a sigh of relief. Hours before Biden’s withdrawal, a poll published in the Detroit Free Press showed Trump with a seven-point ahead in Michigan, a do-or-die battleground for the Democrats. The same poll, however, reported Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Michigan Democrat, three points ahead (43%-40%) of Republican Mike Rogers, a former Michigan congressman.
With Biden out, Democrats again have a chance of flipping the House and a prayer at retaining the US Senate. Nationally, polls show Harris running marginally better than Biden.
She must now unite her party. Already, Biden, Bill Clinton and the Congressional Black Caucus have endorsed her. Still, convention delegates expect to be wooed. Expect abortion to reemerge as a key issue.
Likewise, whom she picks as her running mate will be scrutinized. A swing-state governor or senator could wind up on the ticket. Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro and Arizona’s Mark Kelly all come to mind. For that matter, so too does Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, a Democratic governor in a ruby-red state.
The US is staring at uncharted waters. The race will be one for the ages. How it all shakes out is anyone’s guess.
Lloyd Green is an attorney in New York
Osita Nwanevu: ‘Harris can win. She must’
The paeans being written to the heroism and courage of Biden are extraordinary – it’s rare to see history being so quickly and blatantly rewritten. The truth is that today marks the end of one of the more shameful and ridiculous sagas in American presidential politics – a crisis made and extended by the fecklessness and inertia of the Democratic party as an institution and the bullheadedness of a man who should have understood his own limits and the risks a re-election campaign would pose to the country years ago.
It’s been reported that Biden’s own staffers were informed mere moments before his decision to withdraw was publicly announced on X – one final illustration of the remarkable insularity the last month has revealed within the White House and Biden’s inner circle.
For weeks they charged ahead, questioning the integrity of their critics and ignoring all contrary data until Biden’s position became fully untenable. And one has to wonder now the extent to which their behavior has been reflective of how this administration has handled substantive policy matters behind the scenes, perhaps most especially the war in Gaza, which Biden has backed with an implacability that has baffled and troubled even experts who’ve become accustomed to American deference to Israel. Well before June’s fateful debate, that war fundamentally tarnished what might have been remembered, on the basis of Biden’s domestic policy record, as a respectable and even transformative presidency. Unavoidably now, Biden’s arrogance and solipsism will be part of his story.
If she obtains the nomination, as seems likely, what will Harris’s story be? Thanks substantially to the administration’s own efforts to sideline her, we know very little about her as a leader. Thanks to her time as California’s attorney general, her record in the Senate and her last presidential run, we know a bit more about the policies she’d probably support in office – all told, she offers progressives both much to hope for and much to be wary of.
A key test in the weeks ahead will be how she handles the Gaza question – substantively, a break from Biden there is absolutely necessary. And politically, she could do with an even broader break – the public has been down on this administration for ages and the campaign’s efforts to refocus attention on Trump’s negatives and the threat he poses to democracy simply hadn’t been working.
It’s unclear what will, but removing Biden from the ticket has given the Democrats the opportunity for a full reset. Donald Trump has never won the support of even a plurality of the American public in an election. He has never been viewed more favorably than unfavorably. And he’s never looked more beatable than he did at this year’s Republican national convention. Harris can win. She must. Here’s hoping she does.
Osita Nwanevu is a Guardian US columnist
