President Biden is currently en route to Wisconsin as part of a two-day battleground state swing, with campaign stops in Milwaukee today and Michigan tomorrow. The official nominations of President Biden and former President Donald Trump have set the stage for a potential 2024 rematch, marking the start of the campaign season.
Recent national polling data from March 13th shows a close race between Biden and Trump, with Trump currently holding a minimal lead within the margin of error. This contrasts with the 2016 campaign, where Biden consistently led by a significant margin at this point in the race.
When considering the Electoral College, Trump currently has a slight edge with 272 electoral votes, just two more than needed to win. States like Wisconsin and Michigan are now considered toss-ups, while Georgia leans towards Trump. Nevada and Arizona are also battleground states, further highlighting the tight race in the Electoral College.
Both candidates have notable weaknesses that could impact the race. Trump faces concerns about ethics, with 68% of voters nationwide viewing him as not ethical. On the other hand, Biden's age is seen as a potential weakness, with 67% of voters believing he may be too old to effectively serve another term.
Historically, polls at this stage of the campaign have been off by an average of seven points since 1972, indicating that significant shifts in voter sentiment are possible leading up to the election. The largest deviation was in 1980, with a 28-point difference between early polling and the final margin.
