The Biden administration has assessed that Israel has amassed enough troops on the edge of the city of Rafah in Gaza to potentially move forward with a full-scale incursion in the coming days. However, senior US officials are uncertain if Israel has made a final decision to carry out such a move in direct defiance of President Joe Biden.
One of the officials warned that Israel has not adequately prepared for potentially evacuating over one million Gazans who currently reside in Rafah. This lack of preparation includes building infrastructure related to food, hygiene, and shelter.
If Israel were to proceed with a major ground operation into Rafah, it would contradict months of warnings from the US to avoid a full-scale offensive into the densely populated city. President Biden explicitly stated that the US would withhold certain offensive weapons shipments to Israel if such an operation were to occur.
US officials are increasingly questioning Israel's approach to the war, expressing doubts about its ability to achieve its stated aim of destroying Hamas and eliminating its leadership. The State Department's number two official highlighted tensions between the two countries regarding the theory of victory.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned of dire consequences if Israel were to go 'headlong into Rafah,' potentially leading to an insurgency or chaos in the region. While the US believes Israel may not completely destroy Hamas, it acknowledges that Hamas has been significantly degraded during the conflict.
The US continues to assist Israel in targeting senior Hamas members, including providing intelligence support to track down key figures. President Biden has called for a temporary ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas.
However, the Biden administration is urging Israel to focus more on post-war Gaza plans, expressing frustration over Israel's lack of interest in developing a comprehensive strategy for governance and security in the region once the conflict ends.
Secretary Blinken publicly called on Israel to engage more seriously in planning for post-war Gaza, emphasizing the need to prevent Hamas from governing the region in the future.
