There was a time that if you started 0-2 your season was over. Good teams can lose back-to-back games at midseason and it isn’t life or death. But the playoff odds for teams starting off 0-2 drop hard.
The additional regular-season game and third wild-card team in each conference makes overcoming an 0-2 start more manageable. But if you start 0-3? That’s trouble no matter how you slice it.
Coming into Week 3, a lot of teams are on the edge of that 0-3 cliff, including 2022 playoff teams (Bengals, Vikings and Chargers) and a couple that thought they had legitimate playoff chances (Patriots and Broncos). These teams are going to be more desperate than most because the hole they’ve dug is already deep and getting a lot deeper with a third straight loss.
New York Giants (+400) at San Francisco 49ers (-550)
The Over/Under is a little too low (44.5 points at -110 for the both Over and Under). It’s not too low because of the Giants, but the 49ers have posted 30 points in each of their first two games and have the horses to top that number this week. That doesn’t require the Giants to do too much. Take the Over (-110).
Tennessee Titans (+145) at Cleveland Browns (-175)
This will be a watershed game for the Browns without Nick Chubb. The Titans aren’t a flashy team and are solid road underdogs (3.5 points at -110 for both teams). I think Cleveland will win, but giving away 3.5 points on a game that could go either way is hard to swallow. Take the Titans plus 3.5 points (-110).
Atlanta Falcons (+145) at Detroit Lions (-175)
The Lions are an improving team, but their defense is still suspect. Detroit has been established as a decent favorite (3.5 points at -110 for both), but Atlanta wins games by running the ball and controlling the pace of play. Being given 3.5 points in a game Atlanta could dominate time of possession is asking a lot. Take the Falcons plus-3.5 points (-110).
New Orleans Saints (+105) at Green Bay Packers (-125)
The Packers already have a lot of injuries and Jordan Love has been doing better than some expected. But Green Bay is a small favorite (2 points) for a reason. The Saints are the better team and have a defense that is going to be one of the best in the league. The mystique of Lambeau Field died years ago. Take the Saints on the moneyline (+105).
Denver Broncos (+230) at Miami Dolphins (-300)
Two teams going in different directions … Miami is a solid favorite (6.5 points at -110 for both). The Dolphins are 2-0 having gone cross-country to beat the Chargers and up to New England to beat the Patriots. Now, they’re at home against a Broncos team that just doesn’t look up to the task. Take the Dolphins and lay 6.5 points (-110).
Los Angeles Chargers (-110) at Minnesota Vikings (-110)
Both teams are 0-2, and the Chargers are a one-point road favorite. Minnesota is 0-2 because it has committed seven turnovers and has been minus-3 in a pair of one-score losses. The Vikings are better than their record indicates, and this will be the game they eliminate turnovers in front of the home fans. Take the Vikings on the moneyline (-110).
New England Patriots (-150) at New York Jets (+125)
The Patriots have lost two one-score games, but it should be noted that the losses came to the Eagles and Dolphins – two teams viewed as Super Bowl front-runners. The Patriots are a small road favorite (2.5 points at -115 Patriots, -105 Jets). Bill Belichick is going to have a scheme to control Breece Hall. That may be all that will be required to win this one. Take the Patriots and lay 2.5 points (-115).
Buffalo Bills (-300) at Washington Commanders (+230)
The Commanders are 2-0, but the wins came against the Cardinals and Broncos. The Bills are a big road favorite (6.5 points at -110 for both teams). Buffalo hasn’t been dominant to start the season, but there are games in every season that define it. Buffalo is better in all three phases and it will show Sunday. Take the Bills and lay 6.5 points (-110).
Houston Texans (+333) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-450)
This game has one of the lowest Over/Under numbers (43.5 points at -110 for both) of the week, but that may be because the Jaguars defense has owned the Texans. Their two meetings last year were both dominant performances by Jacksonville’s defense – a 31-3 win by the Jags and a 13-6 win by the Texans. I don’t see Houston competing in this one, but the Jaguars aren’t going to put up 40 points on their own. Take the Under (-110).
Indianapolis Colts (+290) at Baltimore Ravens (-375)
The Ravens are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but the Over/Under in this game seems a little high (45 points at -110 for both the Over and Under). The Colts offense is without Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson has been knocked out of both games in which he’s played. The Ravens defense will be in attack mode, and the offense will look to hold the ball for 40 minutes. Take the Under (-110).
Carolina Panthers (+200) at Seattle Seahawks (-250)
The Panthers are in rebuild mode and the Seahawks are viewed as a playoff team. The Seahawks are a solid home favorite (6 points at -110 for both teams). Carolina has been able to muster only 27 points in two games. Seattle’s offense will score more than enough than is needed. Take the Seahawks and lay 6 points (-110).
Chicago Bears (+525) at Kansas City Chiefs (-750)
One of my failings in predicting games is too often laying off big points. The Chiefs are huge favorites (12.5 points at -110 for both). The Chiefs haven’t been explosive on offense, but the Bears defense is awful. The Chiefs should win by 20, but won’t take their foot off the gas if they get a lead because of their early struggles. Take the Chiefs and lay 12.5 points (-110).
Dallas Cowboys (-700) at Arizona Cardinals (+500)
This has a lot of similarity to the Chiefs game, because the Cowboys are identical favorites (12.5 points at -110 for both teams). Dallas has a defense that is terrorizing, and the Cardinals are not going to match up well. All the Cowboys need to do is be efficient on offense and this one could be over in the third quarter. Take the Cowboys and lay 12.5 points (-110).
Pittsburgh Steelers (+115) at Las Vegas Raiders (-135)
I’m not a believer in the Raiders, so I wasn’t surprised they were such a small home favorite (2.5 points). The Steelers aren’t overpowering, but they do a lot of things right and have an opportunistic defense that takes advantage of mistakes. They will get those opportunities against the Raiders. Take the Steelers on the moneyline (+115).
Philadelphia Eagles (-225) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+180)
The Eagles are still the class of the NFC and, while the Buccaneers are 2-0, it’s not the same type of 2-0 as Philly. The Eagles are favored (4.5 points at -115 Eagles, -105 Buccaneers). The Bucs will struggle to keep this game close, because the Eagles can control games from both sides of the ball. Take the Eagles and lay 4.5 points (-110).
Los Angeles Rams (+120) at Cincinnati Bengals (-145)
The Rams have been a pleasant surprise, and the Bengals have been a disaster. The Over/Under on this game is very low (43.5 points at -110 for both). The Rams have enough offense to do its part. If Joe Burrow plays – even at less than 100 percent – the Bengals definitely do. Take the Over of 43.5 points (-110).
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