It’s a shame the NFL can’t flex standalone games determined last spring before the season played out and the fortunes of teams took a dive.
Of the four games played on Thanksgiving and, God forbid, Black Friday, all four of the expected winners are favored by more than a touchdown – the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers by 7.5 points, the Miami Dolphins by 9.5 points, and the Dallas Cowboys by 12.5 points. In contrast, of the 12 games played Sunday and Monday, only one team (the Kansas City Chiefs at 9 points) are favored by more than 3.5 points, with five teams favored by less than two points.
It would seem the NFL botched this holiday tradition by having the games expected to be the closest being played when only part of the fan base is watching.
Note: Odds are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Green Bay Packers (+290) at Detroit Lions (-375)
The Packers are banged up offensively, and the Lions have won 16 of their last 20 regular season games – including three wins over Green Bay. Detroit is a solid home favorite (7.5 points at -110 for both teams). Three of Detroit’s last four home wins have been by more than this, and they’ll make it four out of five. Take the Lions and lay 7.5 points (-110).
Washington Commanders (+500) at Dallas Cowboys (-700)
The Cowboys are gigantic favorites (12.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Commanders have lost four of their last five games and seven of their last nine. When the Cowboys win, they win big – six of their seven wins have come by 40, 20, 35, 23, 32 and 23 points. I hate laying huge numbers, but the Cowboys have paid off all season. Take the Cowboys and lay 12.5 points (-110).
San Francisco 49ers (-375) at Seattle Seahawks (+290)
The Seahawks are big home underdogs (7.5 points at -105 49ers, -115 Seahawks). Seattle’s offense is likely without Kenneth Walker III (oblique, doubtful) and QB Geno Smith (elbow) is questionable. Seattle would struggle to beat this 49ers team at 100%. Horribly weakened by injury makes that task a lot more daunting. Take the 49ers and lay 7.5 points (-105).
Miami Dolphins (-500) at New York Jets (+375)
The Jets offense is a complete mess, and switching to QB Tim Boyle is why they’re such big home underdogs (9.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Jets defense should have them in the playoffs, but the offense is so punchless that it gives opponents more possessions to do damage. You don’t do that to Miami and get away with it. Take the Dolphins and lay 9.5 points (-110).
New Orleans Saints (-110) at Atlanta Falcons (-110)
The Saints are one-point road favorites. Both teams have been extremely erratic. The Falcons have lost three straight games by a total of 10 points. They just haven’t closed out games. The Saints haven’t been able to string solid games together and with a win, Atlanta will by 3-0 and in first place in this weak division. Take the Falcons on the moneyline (-110).
Pittsburgh Steelers (-115) at Cincinnati Bengals (-105)
The Bengals are starting the rest of the season without Joe Burrow as home underdogs. The Steelers offense has been putrid all season, which explains a very low Over/Under (35.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). This game should be controlled by defense and special teams with both offenses stunted. Take the Under (-110).
Carolina Panthers (+150) at Tennessee Titans (-185)
The Panthers are in line for the first pick in next year’s draft, and the Titans have struggled offensively. The Over/Under is low (37 points at -110 for both). Carolina has scored 15 or fewer points in six games this year, including each of their last four. The Titans have scored 16 or fewer seven times, including their last three and five of their last six games. Take Under 37 points (-110).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+115) at Indianapolis Colts (-135)
The Buccaneers have won only once since Oct. 1, and the Colts are 1-4 in front of the home fans. Indianapolis is a small favorite (2.5 points at -110 for both teams). The key here is that the Bucs defense is allowing only 90 rush yards a game and will be loading the box to stop Jonathan Taylor. You could bet the moneyline because the Bucs may win this outright, but getting points is a nice hedge to the bet. Take the Buccaneers plus 2.5 points (-110).
New England Patriots (-165) at New York Giants (+140)
The Over/Under is very low (34.5 points at -110 for Over and Under). The Patriots keep benching Mac Jones, and Tommy DeVito is going to face defensive looks he’s never seen from Bill Belichick. For this game to hit the Over, it will require points from the defense and special teams. Take Under 34.5 points (-110).
Jacksonville Jaguars (-125) at Houston Texans (-110)
The Texans have been a great success story, but since Houston hammered the Jaguars at home in Week 3, Jacksonville is 6-1 and 3-0 on the road. The Jaguars a small favorite (1.5 points at -110 for both teams), and there are plenty of reasons to think the Texans can win at home, but the Jaguars can distance themselves from Houston with a win. This is a must-win game for a better team. Take the Jaguars and lay 1.5 points (-110).
Cleveland Browns (+105) at Denver Broncos (-125)
Denver has won four straight but has been outgained by 1,000 yards this season. The Browns offense has suffered critical injuries, but Cleveland’s defense has been lights out, and pressure defenses force Russell Wilson into mistakes that cost games. Take the Browns on the moneyline (+105).
Los Angeles Rams (-105) at Arizona Cardinals (-115)
The Rams have struggled to score points but are only slight road underdogs (1 point at -110 for both teams). The Cardinals have Kyler Murray back, and he is playing for his future in the event the Cardinals finish high enough in the draft order. This could be the most important stretch of Murray’s career. Take the Cardinals and lay 1 point (-110).
Kansas City Chiefs (-400) at Las Vegas Raiders (+310)
The Chiefs are big favorites (9 points at -110 for both teams), because they just don’t lose many games in November or December (or January). The Chiefs are 15-2 in their last 17 meetings with the Raiders and, coming off a difficult loss to the Eagles, will take it out on Vegas. Take the Chiefs and lay 9 points (-110).
Buffalo Bills (+145) at Philadelphia Eagles (-175)
The Bills are floundering after coming in with Super Bowl expectations, while the Eagles are making their case for a Super Bowl return. The Over/Under is big (48.5 points at -110 for both). Both teams are capable of putting up a lot of points, and it won’t take much to get this into shootout mode. Take Over 48.5 points (-110).
Baltimore Ravens (-185) at Los Angeles Chargers (+150)
The Ravens have been one of the most dominant teams in the league, while the Chargers continue to find ways to lose. The Ravens are favored (3.5 points at -110 for both teams) and have the ability to blow out the Chargers if things fall right. LA needs this one badly, but the Ravens are ready for prime time. Take the Ravens and lay 3.5 points (-110).
Chicago Bears (+145) at Minnesota Vikings (-175)
The Bears have Justin Fields back, and the Vikings offense has a different look with Josh Dobbs at the wheel. The Over/Under is low (43 points at -110 for both teams). The difference quarterbacks who can scramble makes is that with one play they get a drive in scoring position or end a drive with a touchdown. Both quarterbacks are capable of that kind of game-changing plays. Take Over 43 points (-110).
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