There are some weeks that create separation and set the stage for the rest of the season moving forward. Week 11 of the 2023 season is one of those.
There are seven divisional games, including critical matchups between the Bengals-Ravens, Steelers-Browns, Jets-Bills and Seahawks-Rams. The week ends with a Super Bowl rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs. In between, there will be games that most of the winners stay alive in the playoff chase for another week and many of the losers take one step closer to turning out the lights on their season.
Cincinnati Bengals (+155) at Baltimore Ravens (-190)
The Ravens have been on a scoring tear, which helps explain why they are a solid home favorite (3.5 points at -105 Bengals, -115 Ravens). However, the Bengals haven’t lost by more than three points to the Ravens since Joe Burrow‘s rookie season in 2020, so I like Cincy’s chances in a must-win game. Take the Bengals plus 3.5 points (-105).
Pittsburgh Steelers (-115) at Cleveland Browns (-105)
The Steelers have been anemic on offense and bad on defense, yet they are 6-3. The Browns are without Deshaun Watson again, resulting in a microscopic Over/Under (33 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Even with their offensive struggles, Steelers games have hit Over this number in seven of nine games this season. Take Over 33 points (-110).
Chicago Bears (+360) at Detroit Lions (-500)
The Lions are huge favorites (7.5 points at -110 for both the Bears and Lions), which is understandable because five of Detroit’s last six wins have been by 14 or more points. Justin Fields is expected back, but he will be shaking off the rust and the Lions will take advantage. Take the Lions and lay 7.5 points (-110).
Los Angeles Chargers (-165) at Green Bay Packers (+135)
The Packers have lost five of their last six games and haven’t scored more than 20 points since Week 2. The Chargers are road favorites (3 points at -110 for both teams), and the only teams to hold them under 24 points were the Cowboys and Chiefs. Take the Chargers and lay 3 points (-110).
Las Vegas Raiders (+575) at Miami Dolphins (-900)
This is a gigantic spread (13.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Raiders have won two straight, but they were against the Giants and Jets. Miami’s home wins have come by 50, 15, 21 and 14 points. It may seem crazy, but this spread is in line with where it should be. Take the Dolphins and lay 13.5 points (-110).
New York Giants (+350) at Washington Commanders (-450)
One of the Giants two wins was a 14-7 victory over Washington. The Over/Under is low (37 points at -110 for both) but these two struggle to score more than 40 points when they play each other when healthy, much less with the injuries and trades that have weakened both teams. Take Under 37 points (-110).
Dallas Cowboys (-550) at Carolina Panthers (+400)
The Cowboys are huge favorites (10.5 points at -110 for both teams) but have a reputation of not taking their feet off the gas when ahead. Their six wins include five that have been by 40, 20, 35, 23 and 32 points. The 1-8 Panthers won’t slow them down. Take the Cowboys and lay 10.5 points (-110).
Tennessee Titans (+260) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-350)
The Jaguars are heavy favorites (6.5 points at +100 Titans, -120 Jaguars), and the investment to bet on the Jags seems to say this spread should be seven or more points. The Jaguars will rebound from their humbling loss last week and come back strong against a Titans team in transition. Take the Jaguars and lay 6.5 points (-110).
Arizona Cardinals (+170) at Houston Texans (-210)
The Texans have been a surprise and are a big favorite (4.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Cardinals saw Kyler Murray return last week, and he should make the team more competitive. Houston is a great story, but five points may be too many to give away. Take the Cardinals plus 4.5 points (-110).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+450) at San Francisco 49ers (-650)
The Bucs have been inconsistent on offense, but the Over/Under indicates they will get shut down by the heavily favored 49ers (41.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). The 49ers are capable of scoring almost all these points by themselves, so the Bucs won’t have to supply too many points to top this number. Take Over 41.5 points (-110).
New York Jets (+240) at Buffalo Bills (-300)
The Bills have lost three of their last four and lost to the Jets in Week 1, but Buffalo remains a big favorite (7 points at -110 for both teams). A lot of people have lost money showing confidence in Buffalo, but that won’t stop many of us this week. Take the Bills and lay 7 points (-110).
Seattle Seahawks (-115) at Los Angeles Rams (-105)
The Rams get Matthew Stafford back but are small home underdogs (1 point at -110 for both teams). The Rams hammered the Seahawks in Week 1 (30-13), but the Seahawks have the better, deeper roster and should get revenge. Take the Seahawks and lay 1 point (-110).
Minnesota Vikings (+115) at Denver Broncos (-140)
The Broncos have won three straight games, including wins over the Chiefs and Bills, but are small home favorites (2.5 points). The Vikings have won five straight games and are playing very good defense, which will cause Russell Wilson problems. Bad things happen when Wilson struggles. Take the Vikings on the moneyline (+115).
Philadelphia Eagles (+120) at Kansas City Chiefs (-145)
The Super Bowl rematch has two offenses capable of putting up a lot of points, which makes the Over/Under seem too low (45.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). All this game needs is for one offense to click. This game has the capability to be a shootout that blows by this number. Take Over 45.5 points (-110).
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