George RR Martin's long-awaited novel The Winds of Winter is being priced as a near-miss by prediction markets in the US, where traders on regulated exchange Kalshi this week put the chances of a 2026 release date announcement at just 16 per cent, effectively betting that fans will still be waiting beyond next year.
The sixth instalment in Martin's A Song of Ice and Fire saga has been hanging over the fantasy world for 14 years. The previous novel, A Dance with Dragons, came out in 2011, the same year HBO first aired Game of Thrones. Since then, readers have survived eight seasons of the TV phenomenon, an explosive ending, and the rise of prequel House of the Dragon but no new book. Martin's occasional blog posts and interviews have become forensic reading for fans seeking reassurance. The markets, by contrast, are looking squarely at the numbers.
