Rookie running backs have long been a target for fantasy managers, and for good reason. We like youth and upside at what is the most physically punishing offensive skill position, compared to aging veteran backs who might be on the verge of breaking down due to excessive carries or changes in personnel.
Oftentimes, that sort of strategy has paid off in the stat sheets as some of the best historical fantasy campaigns have come from rookie runners. Who can forget one of the greats, Eric Dickerson, who rushed for 1,808 yards and scored 20 touchdowns in his first NFL season? How about Edgerrin James? He was a superstar out of Miami (Fla.), scoring 17 total touchdowns with 369.9 points.
I can keep going, but this article would begin to resemble War and Peace!
As far back as you want to look in NFL history, you’ll find a rookie runner (and likely multiple) who made an impact. Last season, we saw Kenneth Walker III, Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier all make noise, finishing with 150-plus fantasy points. Breece Hall was well on his way to a potential top-10 finish before injuring his knee, and Isiah Pacheco was useful down the stretch.
Does that mean we’ll see similar outcomes from the 2023 class of running backs, and is there a player who can reach that elite level of production? Well, let’s go even further down memory lane and examine first-year runners since 2000 to see what trends we can unearth that might help us become better drafters.
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In the last 23 years, seven runners have produced 300-plus points, led by Saquon Barkley’s 385.8 points in 2018. Ezekiel Elliott (2016), Alvin Kamara (2017), Clinton Ports (2002), Doug Martin (2012), Matt Forte (2008) and Najee Harris (2020) also hit that mark. Kareem Hunt was very close, scoring 295.3 points as a rookie (2017).
If we look at the overall top 20 fantasy running backs since 2000, we’ll find that three made their debuts in the last four years. That trio is Harris, Jonathan Taylor (2020) and James Robinson (2020). The rest of the top 20 running backs all accomplished their feats in 2018 or earlier, and 10 were before 2012.
That’s not a surprise, as many NFL teams have gone to more of a running back by committee approach. That brings me to the next trend I’ve seen among our top 20 fantasy runners since 2000, and that’s an obvious one -- usage. Of those 20 backs, all but two (Kamara and Maurice Jones-Drew in 2006) had at least 240 touches.
The remaining players saw between 243 and 398 touches, including 13 who finished with over 300. Notably, Harris is the lone first-year back to hit that mark in the last four seasons. Again, this has to do with more split backfields.
Touches, of course, are total carries and catches, so this next trend is no surprise. Among the top 20 rookie runners in our research, 17 finished with at least 32 receptions. Also, 12 backs had more than 40 catches, and nine had at least 50.
Another trend we should note is that the majority of the best rookie fantasy backs have been selected in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. In fact, just three of the top 20 rookies since 2000 went outside of those rounds. Those were Mike Anderson and Alfred Morris, who were both sixth-round picks in their respective rookie years, and Robinson who was left undrafted three seasons ago.
Even if I dive in a little deeper, just three other running backs in the overall top 30 since 2000 were picked outside of the top three rounds in their respective drafts. That trio is Jordan Howard, who was a fifth-rounder in 2016, Domanick Williams, a fourth-round selection in 2003, and Phillip Lindsay, who was undrafted in 2018.
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Now let’s look at the incoming class of runners and see who might fit the bill for our historical trends. The first name, of course, is Texas runner Bijan Robinson. The best back in the draft, he’s projected to be a first-rounder in experts' mocks.
Robinson averaged 23.1 touches and caught 19 passes in his final collegiate year, during which time he rushed for 19 touchdowns. He’s one of the most NFL-ready backs to come out of college since Barkley, and he has the tools and fits the trends to make an instant impact. He’ll be the top dynasty pick and a possible top-20 pick in redrafts if he lands with a franchise that will feature him right out of the gate.
The next-best back is Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs, who isn’t big at 5’9” and 199 pounds but can be a heck of a PPR option in fantasy land. He caught a combined 103 passes in 31 games between Georgia Tech and the Crimson Tide, including 44 receptions in his final season. Whether or not he can be a true featured back is in question due to his size, but comparisons to Kamara are exciting in fantasy land.
Because of his pass-catching chops, Gibbs could be the exception to the 240-plus touch trend. He projects as a Day 2 pick and could be a top-60 fantasy option.
The next back who fits the bill to make a Year 1 impact is Zach Charbonnet. He put up an average of 23.2 touches in his final season at UCLA, and his pass-catching chops were evident in his 37 catches (61 catches in 2021-22). He has early-down size and could become a James Conner or AJ Dillon type of runner.
The rest of the best running backs in this new class include Texas A&M’s Devon Achane, Tulane’s Tyjae Spears, Syracuse’s Sean Tucker, TCU’s Kendre Miller and Mississippi’s Zach Evans. Auburn’s Tank Bigsby and Chase Brown out of Illinois are also notable and could see an increase in value with the right NFL team in 2023.
Based on the trends of the last 23 years, not to mention their immense talent, there’s a good chance Robinson and Gibbs could make an immediate impact. In fact, Robinson could be special as a rookie on the level of Barkley or Elliott. But I’d also keep an eye on Charbonnet, Achane and Spears. All three have pass-catching chops, and Charbonnet could be a Week 1 NFL starter in the right situation.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on Sports Illustrated and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Click here to read all his articles here on SI Fantasy. You can follow Michael on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram for your late-breaking fantasy news and the best analysis in the business to help you win a fantasy championship!
