It is becoming increasingly difficult to see how Sergio Perez will be retained by Red Bull for 2025. While the Mexican has a contract, as we have come to see, they are meaningless when it really boils down to it.
The message from Red Bull is clear: “Checo is our driver next year” – only that might not necessarily be the case.
Perez continues to disappoint to the point that team boss Christian Horner has been left exasperated, having stuck by the 34-year-old until now.
Horner handed him a career lifeline in 2021 when Perez was shown the door by Racing Point, and the team principal has continued to defend his poor results. The aforementioned contract extension was offered early in the campaign in the hope that job security would elicit more performance from his struggling driver.
This year, it was made clear that Perez needed to have a better season than he did in 2023, when he was steamrollered by Max Verstappen. However, he has not had a podium since the Chinese Grand Prix in April, and his last victory was in Azerbaijan in April 2023.
It should be reflected that a strong drive in Baku this term came close to breaking Perez's podium drought, until late contact with Carlos Sainz caused both drivers to miss out on silverware, having been battling over third place.
Perez currently finds himself in eighth place in the drivers’ championship - a staggering 242 points behind his team-mate.
Verstappen's epic victory in the Brazilian Grand Prix looks to have secured him a fourth straight world title, which he can achieve next time out in Las Vegas.
As Red Bull turns its attention to the constructors’ championship, where it sits 49 points behind McLaren, there is a case to be made that Perez’s failures are costing not only team points but are also hitting its workforce in the pocket.
The financial structure at Red Bull means that each member of staff will be denied a win bonus of at least £10,000 if they fail to secure the constructors’ title. Put crudely, looking at the results of the squad’s two drivers, it is easy where to point the finger of blame.
There has long been a theory that Red Bull persisted with Perez due to the lucrative endorsements he brought. Yet money in the team’s coffers is no consolation to a disgruntled workforce who have missed out on a new kitchen or family holiday.
Red Bull too cannot afford any disharmony within the organisation. We have already seen it ripped and torn throughout the investigation into Horner earlier this year, which strained working relationships across the operation.
A sure way to repair that damage would be to have a strong 2025 season with its number one driver, Verstappen, winning the title and the second driver contributing enough to secure the constructors’ championship. It is quite clear that something needs to change for Red Bull to achieve that.
So, who does Red Bull pick? Tongues started wagging in Sao Paulo when Horner went into the Williams hospitality as, amid all the fanfare of Franco Colapinto’s great start in F1, there was a quick assumption that Horner was checking out the Argentine’s availability.
Whether he had any intention of signing him or not, Horner was doing his due diligence, as any team boss should do. He would have sought James Vowles’s opinions on Colapinto, and established an understanding of what terms Williams is seeking. Would the team allow him to leave permanently or effectively on loan, and crucially for how much? Horner could use the information to understand the market value for a hot commodity that comes with lucrative sponsorship.
However, that came before the race in what was a miserable outcome for the Williams driver, who crashed out to cause the red flag.
By contrast, Liam Lawson in the RB had a solid race and finished ninth after being turned around by Oscar Piastri. While rookies such as Oliver Bearman and Colapinto, and other more experienced drivers, had a torrid time, Lawson barely put a wheel wrong in what was only his eighth F1 race and added more points to those he scored on his 2024 debut in Austin.
Yes, he tangled with Perez in Mexico, and had it not been another Red Bull driver, presumably would have been given a pat on the back by Horner for getting his elbows out.
In the same way, he stood up for himself and against criticism from Fernando Alonso in Austin, which also did not dissuade Red Bull. In fact, it is understood that it was supporting Lawson’s rebuttal to the two-time F1 world champion.
Colapinto is an exciting talent who brings sponsorship and a fan base, but he remains an unknown quantity as his race at Interlagos proved. But Red Bull knows all about Lawson.
And then there is the Kiwi’s final asset – and arguably the most important factor that could see him replace Perez. It is the fact he is well-liked by the Verstappens, the significance of which cannot be understated.
After Lawson’s drive in Sao Paulo, Jos Verstappen said on TV: "I think Lawson is doing very well. It seems logical to me that he is ready to step up. Let him finish this season and build confidence and then the team has to decide what they do for next year.”
It was a ringing endorsement from someone who rarely has something positive to say.
Red Bull’s modus operandi has been to get the best out of Verstappen by keeping him happy, and the indications are that for the meantime at least, he and his father would support Lawson being on the other side of the garage.
If Red Bull agrees, then it could ultimately spell the end of Perez’s time with the team, which could bump him to RB alongside Yuki Tsunoda.
Alternatively, with no other available seats on the grid for 2025, perhaps it could even lead to an early retirement – should Colapinto join RB from Williams.
