BATHINDA: The Northwest region comprising Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh is expected to get below normal rainfall during the Southwest monsoon (June to September), as per the forecast predicted by Indian Metrological Department (IMD) on Friday under its long range forecast outlook for 2023.
The rainfall is expected to be below 92% during the entire monsoon season over long period average (LPA). The LPA of 96 to 104% rainfall is considered normal and as per the last 50 years from 1971-2020 the normal rainfall has been considered at 870 mm. However, across the country there is more possibility of normal rainfall during the monsoon over long period average.
Though less rainfall in Northwest may cause troubles to farmers in Punjab, Haryana but it is expected to be normal in other rainfed agriculture areas.
The forecast on Friday was the second stage for updated Long Range Forecast while the IMD had issued first stage forecasts on April 11.
As far as the month of June is concerned, again rainfall is expected to be below normal in Northwest region at less than 92% with normal average at 165.4mm in the month of June.
Against it, till now there is relief from heatwaves as there are less heatwaves till May 25 than the previous year at 77 with 11 in March, 40 in April and 26 in May so far.
However, the possibility of developing of the El Nino could not be ruled out, said IMD Environment Monitoring and Research Centre, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) head DS Pai while releasing the forecast for the month of June and the entire monsoon season on Friday.
Going by the below normal rainfall, the farmers while going in for kharif crop especially transplanting water guzzling paddy may have to depend more on drawing of underground water, which is already is depleting fast in Punjab. Already farmers are drawing water through nearly 14 lakh tube wells in Punjab to irrigate paddy and basmati in over 30 lakh hectares of land. However, apart from Northwest region, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be normal (94-106% of LPA). DS Pai said the IMD remains in touch with agriculture ministry to share the info and make corrective measures.
Both Punjab and Haryana governments have been offering sops to farmers to curtail area under paddy as Punjab government is offering cash incentive of Rs 1500 per care to go in for direct seeding of rice (DSR) under which nearly 15% less water is consumed.
In June 2023, above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except for the extreme north and some parts of the southern peninsular India, where below-normal and normal temperatures respectively are most likely. The normal to above-normal minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except for the extreme north of India and a few areas of northeast India, where below-normal minimum temperatures are most likely, it predicted.
