MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main card for Bellator 292.
Bellator 292 takes place Friday at SAP Center in San Jose, Calif. The main card airs on Showtime following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Quick Picks and Prognostications, where I’ll be giving brief, fight-day breakdowns for select main cards.
With that in mind, I hope these write-ups don’t come off as curt or dismissive, as my goal here is to offer quick picks and analysis in a digestible format. All odds listed are provided by Tipico Sportsbook.
If you’d like more detailed analysis from me, then feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, without further ado …
Goiti Yamauchi (-102) vs. Michael Page (-125)
Bellator kicks off their main card with an interesting welterweight matchup between Goiti Yamauchi and Michael Page.
Despite being somewhat surprised to see a tight line listed for this fight, I also suspect that Yamauchi is a live dog in this spot.
Not only will Yamauchi have the obvious grappling edge, but I also believe that his southpaw stylings could stymie some of Page’s striking (as we haven’t seen the Englishman fight a noted southpaw since a split-decision win opposite Fernando Gonzalez).
I’ll take a flier on Yamauchi to score a club-and-sub in the second round.
Valentin Moldavsky (-360) vs. Linton Vassell (+260)
Filling out the main card on Showtime is a heavyweight rematch between Valentin Moldavsky and Linton Vassell.
Although I don’t disagree with Moldavsky being the designated favorite, I find myself slightly leaning toward the underdog in this spot.
When these two first met back at Bellator 218, Vassell was like a kid on Christmas Day, taking his newfound heavyweight frame around the block for a joyride before a couple of crucial mistakes cost him a fight he was winning.
Since then, Vassell has continued to improve upon his MMA wrestling under the care of Greg Jones at Kill Cliff FC, scoring some big wins against solid wrestlers. Moldavky is a tough out who comes from a good camp, but I suspect that his conservative stylings will cost him here.
The pick is Vassell to force a stoppage on the floor by the second frame.
Tofiq Musayev (+125) vs. Alexander Shabliy (-160)
The co-main event in San Jose features a fantastic quarter-final fight in the lightweight grand prix between Tofiq Musayev and Alexander Shabliy.
I’ve had my eye on Shabliy ever since his instant classic with Eduard Vartanyan back at ACB 49, so it brings me great pleasure to see the Russian fighter finally making it over to a North American platform. Shabliy takes on former RIZIN champion Tofiq Musayev, who is a heavy-handed Sanda fighter with solid wrestling and ground striking to boot.
Although Musayev has the power and skill to score an upset, I suspect that Shabliy’s quick counter triggers and well-rounded game will be too much down the stretch.
I’ll officially pick Shabily to sting Musayev with a sharp counter by the third round, finishing the job on the ground shortly after.
Usman Nurmagomedov (-2500) vs. Benson Henderson (+900)
The main event for Bellator 292 features a lightweight title that falls within the confines of the promotion’s grand prix.
It’s hard to not get excited about the prospects of the newly-minted champion Usman Nuramagomedov, who is a superb striker with the wrestling chops of his Dagestani stablemates.
I’ve been a big fan of the once and future king, Benson Henderson, but it’s difficult to see the former UFC champion pulling off an upset here.
Nevertheless, Henderson has always been a tough fighter to finish, so I’ll officially pick Usman to add another clear, five-round win to his resume.
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