In the past few months, the United States has worked to deepen long-standing ties with Taiwan and has corralled like-minded allies into openly supporting it. Many have considered this a necessary response to Beijing’s attempts to convince the Taiwanese people and military of the inevitability of reunification and to show the United States its determination to achieve that goal, by force if necessary. To date, this strategy has yet to persuade Taiwan that Beijing is unstoppable or convince the United States to step back. Instead, it is inspiring greater urgency among the United States and its allies and has placed Taiwan on the international agenda. With its credibility critically damaged by the crackdown in Hong Kong and repression at home, Beijing’s tactics have only complicated its path to cross-strait unification.
China’s pressure campaign against Taiwan has intensified since 2016, when Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen took office. Tsai, from the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party, refused to accept Beijing’s “One China” formulation, which considers Taiwan a province of a single China. Tsai’s defiance is the culmination of a dramatic swing in Taiwanese public opinion against unification with the mainland after witnessing Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong’s autonomy. To force Taiwan into submission, Beijing has mobilized a host of coercive capabilities that have been met by increased U.S. support for Taiwan. As the Chinese People’s Liberation Army tested missiles and stepped up drills in the Taiwan Strait, U.S. President Joe Biden responded by normalizing U.S. warship transits near Taiwan, coupled with sales of advanced weapons to Taipei to boost its ability to asymmetrically deny a Chinese invasion. As Beijing attempted to use economic leverage against Taiwan, the United States resumed long-stalled trade talks with the Taiwanese government, even though Biden has said that entering new trade deals is not currently a priority.
