The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) expects Thailand's economic recovery to hit the fast track next year, driven by higher tourism revenue and exports following China's decision to reopen its borders from Jan 8.
The move, which relaxes international travel restrictions and quarantine rules, is seen as Beijing's last step in ending three years of its "zero-Covid" policy and letting its residents live with the highly contagious virus, according to media reports.
Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the FTI, expects to see pent-up demand from Chinese eager to travel abroad after years of entry restrictions limiting tourism.
Thailand should be a popular destination for this market, he said.
"The global economy is expected to enter a recession next year, but if China reopens its country, there will be more economic activity there, which will be good for the Thai economy," said Mr Kriengkrai.
The World Bank warned earlier of the likelihood of a global recession in 2023 after many central banks raised interest rates in response to high inflation.
Thailand should benefit from travel because the Chinese were previously a large source market for tourists and they will spend money here, according to the FTI.
Tourism will be essential in driving the economy, which will also help boost the manufacturing sector next year, he said.
"The government expects foreign arrivals to reach 25 million next year, and the FTI believes 25-26 million is possible, driven by tourists from China," said Mr Kriengkrai.
The reopening of China is also good news for Thai exporters as the US and European economies are projected to slow next year, he said. China is Thailand's main export market.
One downside is higher economic activity in China should increase energy demand there, potentially affecting global energy prices, said Mr Kriengkrai.
The higher activity may cause global crude oil prices to increase to US$121 per barrel, up from below $100, he said, citing a prediction by S&P Global.
Higher energy prices will drive up inflation, eventually affecting the Thai economy, said Mr Kriengkrai.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking said earlier it expects the Thai economy to continue its recovery in 2023, with GDP growth estimated in a range of 3-3.5%, mainly driven by the tourism sector.
Inflation is expected to stand at 2.7-3.2%.
