Chicago (2-2) travels north to take on the division-leading Minnesota Vikings (3-1) in Week 5. The Bears are a 7.5-point underdog as they take on one of the more talented offenses in the NFL.
Minnesota will give Chicago’s secondary their first test, with Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins throwing for the sixth most passes in the NFL through four weeks.
The Bears could benefit from the Vikings coming off a short week in London and electing not to take a bye week. Star running back David Montgomery could also return against Minnesota.
It will be a tough week for the Bears on the road. Here are five things to watch in their Week 5 matchup — and a final prediction!
1
Can the Bears' passing offense improve?
The Bears are the worst passing offense in the NFL, averaging less than 100 yards per game. Part of this is due to Justin Fields taking the fewest passing attempts in the NFL, and the other part is due to Fields not throwing the football into tight windows.
On Sunday, Chicago will take the field against a mediocre Vikings pass defense that will offer the Bears’ passing attack a chance to step up. Minnesota allows 263.5 yards per game through the air – if the Bears were to match that, it would be their best game this season throwing the ball.
2
How will the Bears' defense contain Kirk Cousins?
Chicago’s passing defense has seen the fewest pass attempts and is the fourth-best in passing yards allowed. The Bears have yet to face a passing offense as good as the Vikings. Opposing quarterback Kirk Cousins will put the Bears’ secondary to the test – only five quarterbacks throw the ball more per game than Cousins.
Sunday will give defensive coordinator Alan Williams and his defense a chance to prove if they are one of the best secondaries in the NFL or if teams have settled for their success running the ball against Chicago’s NFL-worst rushing defense.
3
London hangover for the Vikings?
The Vikings are coming off a game in London against the Saints. Most teams elect to take their bye week after the overseas game, but Minnesota did not. So instead, the Vikings will play the Bears and Dolphins before resting in Week 7.
Teams coming off a short week in London typically underperform sportsbook expectations for total points scored. So, while the Vikings are a 7.5-point favorite, there’s a chance the offense struggles to achieve its season average of 21.5 points per game.
4
Vikings running backs vs. Bears defense
Chicago struggles against the run, fielding the NFL’s worst rushing defense and allowing opponents to run for 183 yards per game. Minnesota only averages 98 yards per game on the ground and, like most teams, will attempt to take advantage of the Bears, allowing 5.1 yards per carry.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see the game script flip for the Vikings, who only run about 22 times per game. Look for Minnesota to copy Chicago’s opponents, who run the ball about 36 times per game against the Bears’ defense.
5
Potential returns of David Montgomery and Jaylon Johnson
The Bears could get two, star players back on Sunday in running back David Montgomery and cornerback Jaylon Johnson. Both players have missed the last two games due to injury, but both practiced on Friday. The cornerback is doubtful for Sunday, and Montgomery will be a game-time decision.
Defensively, Johnson’s return would be an improvement for the Bears’ secondary, who had to play rookie Kyler Gordon more after Johnson’s injury. Gordon has been taking his rookie lumps, and the Bears could use help as they face All-Pro wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen from Minnesota. But Johnson is doubtful, which doesn’t make it likely.
On offense, David Montgomery provides an upgrade to the Bears’ pass blocking and is the more complete running back compared to second-year man Khalil Herbert. The veteran Montgomery seemed to be finding his stride before getting hurt with a 122-yard game against Green Bay, where he averaged 8.1 yards per carry.
6
Final Prediction: Vikings 27, Bears 15
The Bears are facing one of their most talented opponents this season, and the weather will not be a factor. The level of concern has to increase if star cornerback Jaylon Johnson doesn’t play, and rookie Kyler Gordon is forced to cover All-Pros Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen.
Until the Bears’ offense proves that it can throw the ball effectively, there’s no reason to think otherwise. Minnesota is another team that should allow Chicago to take advantage of throwing the ball – will they do it?
There’s no reason the Vikings shouldn’t win this game. But if there’s a reason for hope, Minnesota is coming off a short week in London and could be looking ahead to next week’s game against Miami.
