Just because the Bears and quarterback Justin Fields have a great opportunity this week doesn’t mean they’ll take advantage of it.
Should the Bears win at home against a 1-4 Vikings team that has beaten only the winless Panthers?
Should their defense, with a fully healthy secondary, handle the Vikings when they’re missing All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson?
Should Fields continue his run by lighting up one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses?
Yes. But with the Bears, what should happen often doesn’t.
And very little has come easily for Fields. He has momentum, though.
While Fields was central to the Bears’ collapse against the Broncos with late turnovers, he was sharp in a 40-20 victory over the Commanders. Between the two, he completed 67.2% of his passes, totaled 617 yards and threw for eight touchdowns against one interception for a 131.3 passer rating.
“He’s completing the ball at a much higher rate — that goes to that whole process of being [able] to see it,” offensive coordinator Luke Getsy said. “The big part of it, too, is the guys are protecting really well, giving him an opportunity to do so. The process is getting a little bit smoother around him, so that helps everything else go a little bit better.”
Everything has been going better for everyone when they face the Vikings. Not only have the Vikings given up the 10th-most points at 24.4 per game, they’re especially bad in pass defense.
The Vikings have allowed completions on 76.4% of the passes thrown against them, second-worst only to the Broncos at 77.3%. Either of those would be the highest ever allowed for a season, according to Pro Football Reference. They also have allowed the third-highest opponent passer rating at 110.8.
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has blitzed 56.2% of the time, well above any other team, but hasn’t gotten much of a payoff. His defense is 17th in sacks (13) and 21st in pressure (21.4% of opponent pass plays). So if Fields reads the blitzes, he should pass this test.
“You have to be ready for short things and deep ones, too, because they’ll send everybody,” receiver Darnell Mooney said. “You can run by them and catch a deep one or get something short. They love to stay [deep] and let everybody catch it in front of them and then try to hit you.”
Fields’ next three opponents are in the bottom 12 in opponent passer rating — the Bears host the Raiders after this, then visit the Chargers — before facing the Saints, who rank first.
He must continue merging Getsy’s tenets with his intention to play more freely and naturally. The last two games looked like a good blend of the two, with Fields taking deeper shots and trusting top wide receiver DJ Moore to make plays. The statistics back that up.
When Fields voiced that desire publicly three weeks ago, his comments blew up on him. But they also revealed a flawed approach on the field. Fields sounded like a quarterback overly concerned with doing things by the book rather than simply getting them done.
“There’s been times where I just try to be a perfectionist, and nothing in this world is perfect,” he said then. “So stop [overthinking] and just go out there and play.”
The early returns on that shift have been more targets for Moore (19 in the last two games versus 15 over the first three), more downfield throws (10.6 yards of average air distance last week, up from 3.3 in the opener) and more willingness to throw to covered receivers (17.2% of his passes were against tight coverage last week, compared to 2.7% in the opener).
Everything seems to be in Fields’ favor more than at any point in his young career. It’s unknown whether he’ll capitalize on that, but the opportunity is sitting there.
