It seems like a scene out of “The St. Valentine’s Day Massacre.” But instead of North Side Gang gangsters being lined up in Lincoln Park against a warehouse wall on Clark and Dickens, it’s Matt Eberflus, Luke Getsy, Justin Fields, Ryan Poles, damn near everyone on the offensive line, any coaches or coordinators still left on the staff who haven’t resigned or been fired and — if he drops one more interception or says “I’m one of those guys that can get paid at a high level” one more time — Jaylon Johnson.
The entire city is aiming at their backs. The McCaskeys and Kevin Warren sitting back on some Al Capone vibe waiting on when to give the order. Fire v. Fired. Same thing. Semblance. The writing seems to be on the wall instead of the blood, but we can’t make out what the writing is going to say or even if the triggers are going to be pulled.
The evaluation process sits as judge, jury and executioner. Win out or don’t win out. Go 3-2 or go 1-4. Undefeated changes nothing; lose all changes everything. What’s an underachieving, trapped at the bottom of their division but showing signs of life entering the end of the season team to do? Essentially no one in the city will be happy with whatever decision is made. Not in the moment, at least.
Keep Fields? Keep Eberflus? Release Getsy? Draft a potential franchise-changing quarterback to replace Fields? Trade Fields while he’s still on his rookie contract for another starting quarterback (of similar value), draft wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the No. 1 pick (if secured) and still draft another QB (say, Jayden Daniels) with their next pick and see if Getsy and the current coaching staff can do with them what they couldn’t do with Fields/DJ Moore & Co.?
Fire the entire coaching staff and build around Fields and the glimpses he has shown, hoping that a new set of coaches can do what this coaching regime couldn’t? Keep Eberflus and Getsy and find a mindfreak of a defensive coordinator? Give Johnson the money he’s seeking, draft a can’t-miss defensive lineman or edge rusher with one of those high draft picks to complement Montez Sweat and build wins through the defense, giving the offense one more year to figure it all out?
Or do you take these last five games, if you are the Bears, to hunt answers to the uncomfortable regional/divisional questions you’ve been internally asking yourselves: Is Eberflus ever going to be able to out-coach or coach strategically on the level of Dan Campbell, Kevin O’Connell or Matt LaFleur? Or ever be able to be the reason a team led by him beats any team in the NFC North on a regular basis? If not, which coach do you poach? Jim Harbaugh? Eric Bieniemy? Ben Johnson or Ejiro Evero?
And do you make a move on them now because this time next year, they may all be 14 weeks deep into their new NFL head-coaching jobs for other teams? Is Fields at his best ever going to be better or on par with Jordan Love now — or how good Love is going to be in the next two seasons? Is he ever going to get to Jared Goff’s level? Or have six games in a row showing the promise Josh Dobbs had three games in a row for the Vikings against the Falcons, the Saints and (even in a loss) the Broncos? Is there any QB in the draft who could become the C.J. Stroud of your division if he were in a Bears uniform?
These next five weeks would be an entirely different scenario if the Bears didn’t have the options they have leading up to April. And while Poles had eerily similar circumstances this time last year going into the draft, he cannot afford to play it the same way this time. Unless the Bears end the season on a five-game winning streak or win four out of the last five, Poles’ position as GM is no different than anyone else standing against that proverbial wall. It’s just that his timeline might be a few months longer. What Eberflus and Fields do in these next five weeks may determine their fate in Chicago; what Poles does in response to what happens in these next five weeks will, without question, determine his fate in the NFL.
So here we are, standing at the beginning of the Bears’ inevitable, inescapable moment of change. The decisions that will be made all predicated on this five-game assessment capsule will determine what the upcoming five-year future of the franchise will be.
Even if the Al Capones of Halas Hall think they already have their minds made up on what it is they’re going to do, they have no idea WTH they are going to do. No beauty, all curse. It’s like the NFL/OnlyBears/football version of Johnnie Taylor’s “Last Two Dollars.” These last five games, I’m not gonna lose. These last five games, I sho’ ain’t gonna lose . . .”
Unfortunately, we all know the rest.
