The Bears would maintain they haven’t made any decisions about anyone yet and will wait until the end of the season to do so, but there’s little chance that’s the case. There’s enough of a body of work from quarterback Justin Fields and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, for example, that the final three games aren’t likely to change much.
But coach Matt Eberflus has a lot on the line when the Bears host the Cardinals on Sunday, followed by a home game against the Falcons and a visit to the Packers to close the season.
Team president Kevin Warren and general manager Ryan Poles should know (mostly) what they need to know about Eberflus, too. But if they want to retain him, he could make it easier for them to justify that by stacking up victories.
The playoffs are out of the question, and the Bears’ decision-makers should be careful about attaching too much meaning to what Eberflus shows them against three teams that have a combined record of 15-27. If they already are inclined to keep him, however, it would help if he got the team to 8-9.
Before we even go down that path, keep in mind that winning three games is a big ask. Eberflus got his first two-game winning streak this month, and he’s 8-23 overall. Stringing together three consecutive victories — against any opponents — shouldn’t be expected.
But if Eberflus pulls it off, he could argue that taking this team from three victories last season to eight is a respectable jump, that the Bears would be 6-2 in their last eight games and that the defense has looked dramatically better since the arrival of defensive end Montez Sweat.
Again, Eberflus is on shaky ground, so those hypothetical accomplishments only would matter if Warren and Poles remain undecided. There’s a decent chance they’re already out on him.
It’s going to take Eberflus forever to fix his overall record after starting 3-14. His best-case scenario at the end of this season still would leave him 11-23, a .324 winning percentage that would rank ahead of only John Fox and Abe Gibron in Bears history.
Eberflus took a roster that Poles thought was ready to compete for a playoff spot and ran it aground at 0-4 and eventually 2-7. And the debacles spilled beyond the field.
One of his most trusted assistants, defensive coordinator Alan Williams, was forced to resign after one game. Running backs coach David Walker was fired for non-football reasons in November.
Two games into the season, Fields vented publicly about the disconnect between him and Getsy. It would’ve been a time for Eberflus to take control of the offense, but it’s unclear how much he intervened because he already was busy filling in for Williams as defensive coordinator. The Bears also couldn’t make it work with receiver Chase Claypool, which wasn’t solely on Claypool. The coaching staff is responsible for situations like that, too.
And throughout the various mishaps, Eberflus made them worse with clumsy news conferences and flimsy explanations. He has proved himself to be a sharp defensive strategist, but everyone knew that already from his success as a coordinator. The head job involves a lot more than that, and Eberflus simply hasn’t produced results to justify the promotion.
It’s a huge decision, too, because as disappointing as this season has been, the Bears are well-positioned for next season. Poles has made many upgrades already and will have two high draft picks — probably including No. 1 overall — and ample salary-cap space. There’s potential to compete soon.
So factoring in the already-sturdy case against bringing Eberflus back, it would be easy for Warren and Poles to move on if the Bears unravel in the last three games. There’s zero margin for any additional embarrassment at this point.
