There’s no telling how many times the Bears’ fanbase has fired Matt Eberflus during two seasons as coach. It’s hard to be popular with a 6-21 record.
But there’s probably a significant difference between his public approval rating and how his bosses view him. The Bears are notoriously patient with coaches, often overly so, and general manager Ryan Poles is incentivized to make this work.
Regardless of the details of the Bears interviewing Eberflus before they hired Poles as they sought to fill both positions in January 2022, Eberflus is on Poles’ ledger. Having to fire him two seasons in would be a major strike against Poles.
Poles also has never had to fire a coach, and when he spoke two weeks ago, it sounded like moving on from Eberflus would be painful.
“I know it looks like we’re far away, but this dude comes in every day and just keeps chipping away,” Poles said. “He has high integrity... The way he holds everything down here is incredible for how loud it is, how tough it is.
“I see a grown man that has leadership skills to get this thing out of the hole and into where it needs to be.”
The question about job security, which Poles acknowledged was logical, came eight games into Eberflus’ second season. Eberflus started getting asked about it after an 0-4 start in which he botched the end of a collapse against the Broncos.
That’s pretty early for those questions to be warranted. Matt Nagy was halfway through his third season in the midst of a six-game losing streak when he faced them. Before that, John Fox got fired after three seasons and Marc Trestman was dismissed after two.
Bears chairman George McCaskey didn’t want to fire Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace, delaying it until consultant Bill Polian advised it when they went 6-11 in 2021.
After Nagy steered the Bears to 8-8 for the second season in a row in 2020 and showed no signs of fixing the offense, and the team fell to 42-54 under Pace’s watch, McCaskey argued that both were still “learning and growing in their roles,” as if those were entry-level positions.
“I don’t know, frankly, that a lot of people have confidence in this course of action,” McCaskey said then. “But sometimes you have to take the route that you think is best, even when it’s not the most popular decision.”
There was a canyon between McCaskey’s opinion and the public’s. That might be the case now, too.
New team president Kevin Warren is the wild card. He didn’t help hire Eberflus — or Poles, for that matter — so he’s likely to be more objective. While Warren hasn’t spoken publicly since the season started, it’s a safe bet the Bears aren’t meeting his standards. They’re 3-7, two assistants have exited for non-football reasons and Eberflus has struggled to display command as the voice of the organization.
Eberflus can still claw his way out of this conversation, but he’ll need something concrete to do so. He’s too far along to be holding up imperceptible progress that isn’t translating to wins.
He said Wednesday that the remaining seven games are enough for the Bears to judge quarterback Justin Fields’ consistency, and it should be enough to evaluate Eberflus as well.
He needs to supervise a coherent, productive offense. He needs to manufacture a pass rush and develop three key rookies on defense in cornerback Tyrique Stevenson and defensive tackles Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens.
And he really needs wins. Going at least 4-3 in that stretch and avoiding blowouts would be promising.
It also would be what’s best for the Bears, even though it would hurt their standing in the draft. At this point, it’s more important to establish credibility and solidify that they have the right coach. But it’ll require real results from Eberflus for everyone to see that.
