Polls in two key House races in the Midwest taken before and after Democrats’ switch from President Joe Biden to Vice President Kamala Harris could reveal how the 2024 elections have evolved in the last 10 days and provide a window for the new normal.
A survey taken in early July in the wake of Biden’s disastrous debate performance showed the president underperforming his 2020 vote totals in Michigan’s 7th District, with Democratic candidates performing better than Biden in the House and Senate races. But a new poll taken in Ohio’s 9th District days after Harris sewed up the Democratic nomination showed the vice president outperforming Biden’s 2020 vote share and longtime House and Senate incumbents with sizable leads with three months to go in the election.
These are just two polls in two congressional districts in a vast landscape of states, districts and races, but they provide a glimpse into the state of the election at two key moments in time. More time will tell whether the Ohio survey is an outlier or part of a larger, positive trend for Democrats.
