The two-day informal talks in Bangkok and Pattaya on July 12-13 marked a real turning point in efforts to resolve the Myanmar crisis, even if the outcomes were not earth-shattering.
For the first time, all the parties concerned engaged in meaningful dialogue. They had the opportunity to meet face-to-face and hold in-depth discussions. On the surface, their positions may have seemed awkward and uncompromising, but deep down they all want peace, knowing full well that the continued violence will only cause greater suffering. A degree of comfort and trust has begun to develop, providing a foundation for further progress in future meetings.
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow aptly summed it up: at this juncture, it was about dialogue. That much was clear. As the current calibrated re-engagement process has shown, it is no exaggeration to say that these talks matter not only to Myanmar but also to all stakeholders.
In the months leading up to the meetings, scepticism was high over whether Thailand could pull it off. At the Cebu summit, Mr Sihasak proposed that Myanmar's new Foreign Minister, Tin Maung Swe, hold a face-to-face informal meeting with his Asean counterparts. He argued that it was time to re-engage with Myanmar, under certain conditions, in the post-election period and follow up on the Asean Five-Point Consensus. Thailand, he emphasised, was acting as a facilitator and seeking to reconnect with Myanmar.
He was the bloc's first foreign minister to visit Nay Pyi Taw in early April after Myanmar established a new administration under President Min Aung Hlaing. Foreign ministers from Malaysia and Indonesia later followed suit. Earlier this month, Min Aung Hlaing also visited Laos, the first Asean member state that he has visited.
While Asean foreign ministers agreed to hold an informal meeting with Tin Maung Swe, the venue remained undecided. Thailand insisted on hosting it. The reasons were straightforward. Bangkok offered convenient access for all participants, particularly those based along the Myanmar-Thai border. Thailand was also prepared to host the participants, facilitate their travel and ensure their safety.
Most importantly, Thailand shares over 2,400 kilometres of porous border with Myanmar and has been the country most affected by the crisis that followed the 2021 coup. Before the Bangkok meetings, however, criticism was widespread that Thailand was too close to Nay Pyi Taw and therefore not sufficiently neutral to host the talks.
Some also suggested that the Jakarta-based Asean Secretariat would be a more appropriate venue. After all, it hosted the special Asean summit in April 2021 under Brunei's chairmanship to discuss the bloc's response to Myanmar's military takeover. The idea, however, failed to gain traction, as many participants preferred Bangkok.
The current Asean chair, Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro, who has built a solid track record of engagement with Nay Pyi Taw and the armed ethnic groups, was able to align her role as the bloc's special envoy on Myanmar with broader Asean-led efforts. She also worked closely with Mr Sihasak to ensure the proposed meetings in Bangkok and Pattaya proceeded as smoothly as possible.
At a press conference after the meetings, Ms Lazaro and Mr Sihasak said the sessions -- held on the first day in Bangkok and the second in Pattaya -- had been productive, allowing participants to exchange views on the situation in Myanmar and reaffirm Asean's unwavering commitment to its Five-Point Consensus.
Mr Sihasak also reiterated the four key benchmarks Asean is monitoring: the cessation of violence against civilians, unrestricted humanitarian access for all, the release of political prisoners and progress on national reconciliation.
Most importantly, Ms Lazaro and Mr Sihasak also referred to the fate of Aung San Suu Kyi, who remains a key concern for Asean leaders and their dialogue partners. Ms Lazaro said Tin Maung Swe had referred to Suu Kyi as a "sister" during the meeting and assured participants that she was safe. Asean has also requested that its special envoy on Myanmar be allowed to meet her in person.
Mr Sihasak expressed optimism that there would be positive developments regarding her in the coming days. He credited President Min Aung Hlaing with transferring Suu Kyi from prison to house arrest at the end of April. The Myanmar leader had informed him of the decision during their meeting in early April.
Truth be told, mutual trust between Thailand and Myanmar has never been stronger. Last week's meeting between Mr Anutin and Tin Maung Swe was highly significant in shaping the future direction of bilateral ties. The two sides identified three key areas of cooperation.
Both countries agreed to strengthen efforts to combat narcotics, illegal gambling and transnational crime, while working together to reduce open burning, a major cause of transboundary haze.
In addition, they pledged to promote economic cooperation and development, share agricultural expertise, improve farmland management and tackle the transboundary haze problem. Finally, Thailand reaffirmed its full support for Myanmar's role in Asean.
Mr Anutin believes that continued engagement with Myanmar will foster cooperation and enable all parties to address issues affecting people across the region.
It was therefore not surprising that Mr Anutin invited Min Aung Hlaing to visit Thailand on Aug 6-7. When Myanmar's leader chose Laos for his first visit to an Asean member state earlier this month, it prompted regional analysts to speculate about his political intentions. Clearly, Myanmar is seeking to strengthen ties with its neighbouring countries. His visit to Bangkok is particularly significant as it comes amid shifting regional dynamics driven by economic and energy challenges, alongside Nay Pyi Taw's efforts to reintegrate into the Asean community.
Although the Pattaya meeting did not produce any common positions, both Ms Lazaro and Mr Sihasak were satisfied that Myanmar's stakeholders had the opportunity to express their genuine concerns and aspirations. Looking ahead, Ms Lazaro said Asean would broaden its engagement with all stakeholders in the hope that the peace process would eventually become Myanmar-owned and Myanmar-led.
During the Pattaya meeting, the conflicting parties stayed in separate hotels. Ms Lazaro and Mr Sihasak shuttled repeatedly between the two groups to convey their respective views and clarifications. Although the hosts faced considerable pressure, the gap between the two sides remains wide.
Finally, one related development should not be overlooked. While in Bangkok, Tin Maung Swe also held a meeting with Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, whose country will chair Asean next year. He will have to engage with Myanmar one way or another.
If there is "demonstrable progress", as Mr Balakrishnan said in comments to Channel News Asia, the junta leader could become eligible to attend the 50th Asean Summit. That remains a big "if", however, as Asean leaders will first have to assess whether the situation warrants lifting the restrictions imposed on Nay Pyi Taw five years ago.
Myanmar now faces what could be its final opportunity to rebuild trust with the region. Min Aung Hlaing is a mercurial leader whose next moves are difficult to predict. Nevertheless, Asean remains committed to its Five-Point Consensus and expects tangible progress from Nay Pyi Taw.
