The Ballon d'Or 2023 isn't until October – but already, the favourites are beginning to establish themselves.
We're well and truly out of the duopoly era, now. From 2008 to 2021, Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi dominated the Ballon d'Or with only Luka Modric breaking their stronghold in 2018. Last autumn saw Karim Benzema lift France's for the first time since Zinedine Zidane – and once more, the podium spots could be anyones.
Let's whiz through the runners and riders all competing for the biggest individual award in the sport this year.
Who are the favourites for the Ballon d'Or?
All odds from Betfair
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1. Lionel Messi (1/4)
The red-hot favourite for the Ballon d'Or has seven of the award already in his cabinet at home. He could well extend the record of most wins to eight, too, having inspired Argentina to a World Cup title in the 2022/23 season already.
OK, so Paris Saint-Germain have done nothing in Europe once more: Lionel Messi won the Golden Ball at the World Cup though, becoming the first player to ever win it twice. Giving him the Ballon d'Or seems like a formality – he's likely to bag another domestic league title – unless someone else can deliver something otherworldly between now and the end of the season.
With rumours linking the little genius away from Europe this summer, too, this might be the last time he wins the trophy. If Messi leaves for the US or Middle East, expect him to lift the BDO for an eighth time in recognition as much for his career as what he's done this season… a little like how John Wayne won an Oscar for True Grit.
2. Erling Haaland (5/1)
Erling Haaland is scoring goals at a rate that no one ever has done in the Premier League. That alone may see him lift the Ballon d'Or next year, the year after or the year after that – but let's not forget that this is a team game.
And Manchester City are, after all, still on for a treble. If the Citizens lift all three trophies, BDO voters' eyes will swing over to the super Scandi scorer who's demolished all before him at home and on the continent. Recency bias may give Haaland the nudge over Messi, too.
It's not quite a one-horse race yet – either in the Premier League title stakes or the Ballon d'Or voting – and the City slicker is trying his damnedest to give himself the best chance at both.
3. Kylian Mbappe (11/1)
Kylian Mbappe is yet to feature in the top three at the Ballon d'Or. Though he finished the World Cup as Lionel Messi's bridesmaid, he may yet get onto the awards' podium.
After all, many of the reasons that you'd vote for Messi are positives in King Kylian's corner, too. Inspired his team with goals a-plenty at the World Cup, dragging them through some rounds and breaking records as he went, before a stunning show in the final that no one will forget in the final – though both are let down by PSG's impotence in the Champions League.
It may be a little too soon for Mbappe but there's still a chance that he could sweep this prize this season. He's arguably the best player on Earth right now.
4. Karim Benzema (18/1)
Last year's champ is still going strong. Karim Benzema put in performances of sheer magic in the Champions League last season to convince all that he was the most devastating footballer of 2022.
Big Benz is still in the Champions League. The only problem with his BDO retention campaign is that he can't quite repeat last season's feats, even in March. Last season, he won a Nations League with France and a La Liga title with Real Madrid: he wasn't involved in the big international tournament of the last year, unfortunately, while Barcelona look like wrapping up the Spanish title in mere weeks.
He'd be an outside shot this time – but it says all you need to know about the man that he's still fourth favourite for the prize despite all the odds.
5. Marcus Rashford (28/1)
The last time an English player won the Ballon d'Or was in 2001, when a fresh-faced Michael Owen was the shock recipient following a barnstorming season with Liverpool.
Marcus Rashford is on course to repeat that campaign with Manchester United. With the League Cup title already sewn up, the England international is driving his side forward in the FA Cup and Europa League, as the Red Devils chase a treble that only their Red rivals have ever managed in English football.
Owen was lucky that he did all three trophies in a season between the European Championship and the World Cup. Would Rashford winning all three be enough to swing the voters to plump for him over Messi?
6. Vinicius Jr (33/1)
The scorer of last season's Champions League-winning goal, Vinicius Jr is slowly but surely becoming the man for the big occasion whenever the biggest club in the world need him to be.
Rather like Benzema, the Brazilian is having a stellar season in the Champions League and no one would be surprised if Los Blancos went all the way once more. But how much does Vini have to do in that competition to surpass the achievement of Messi at the World Cup?
At 22, you can put Vinicius in a bracket with Haaland, Mbappe and even Rashford: all are having incredible seasons… but it's a little premature to label any as favourites for this prize.
7. Kevin De Bruyne (33/1)
Kevin De Bruyne was on the Ballon d'Or podium last autumn – though he probably kissed his chance to do so again this year goodbye, with Belgium's weak World Cup performance.
Still, we can put KDB in the same boat as Erling Haaland as a potential superstar to motor Manchester City towards a treble. The strawberry blond playmaker has only been playing sporadically for Pep Guardiola of late – but were the Citizens to win the Premier League, FA Cup and League Cup together, it's likely that De Bruyne will have a hand in each.
Remember the title clash at the Emirates Stadium when De Bruyne put in a whirlwind performance and scored the opener? That could well be where his bid for the BDO really began, should he lift it later in 2023…
8. Enzo Fernandez (40/1)
Enzo Fernandez will be popular with the Ballon d'Or voters regardless of how the rest of his season pans out with Chelsea. The Young Player of the World Cup, who scored a belter in the group stage against Mexico, he's going to finish favourably in the voting, surely.
Especially when you consider he's on course to finish outside of a European place with his new club and that Chelsea may well exit at the quarter-final stage of the Champions League to Real Madrid. Could they go further? Could they win it? Could Enzo put in the kind of season-defining performances that see him with the Golden Ball under his arm?
Perhaps – but it would be a shock, were he to beat out his countryman, Messi, to the big prize. Still, stranger things have happened – especially in this award's history…
