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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
Business
Eduardo Porter

Bad news for Trump ahead of the midterms: it’s still the economy, stupid

Donald Trump Economy Joe Biden Midterm Elections Harris Republican Tariffs United States
a man in a red hat pointing
Donald Trump points to the White House ballroom construction as he arrives on Marine One, early on 15 October 2026, in Washington. Photograph: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

It’s indisputable that the political polarization of our time has reduced (and confused) the influence of economic conditions on US elections.

In September of 2024, in the waning weeks of the Joe Biden presidency, 65% of Republicans believed the US economy was getting worse. About six months later, as Donald Trump launched a trade war on the rest of the world with his “liberation day” tariffs, the share of Republican pessimists had dropped to 33%.

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