At a crossroads north of Brisbane two opposing ways of life collide, perfectly encapsulated in adjacent signs.
One is hand-painted and advertises farm-fresh strawberries. The other touts the income potential of the 16.8ha horse paddock it sits in, described as a future main intersection adjoining a proposed town centre.
Greenfield development – that which takes place in previously undeveloped areas - is being held up as a pillar of the state government’s efforts to address south-east Queensland’s housing crisis.
But those at the coalface say it will do nothing for the region’s growing homeless population, while others advocating renters’ rights identify a number of more meaningful reforms. And some economists and planning experts say it will have no impact on reducing house prices.
One thing is certain, however: it will make some landowners very wealthy.
The sign on the crossroads with the big red “sold” banner splashed across it declares this the heart of Caboolture West – the largest greenfield growth area planned for the Moreton Bay region.
Currently, though, the 3,480ha of rolling paddocks, timbered ridges, strawberry fields, rickety old Queenslanders and paperbark-lined creeks is known as Bellmere. Over the next 40 years, the cattle that graze these foothills of the Glass House mountains are slated to make way for 70,000 people living in 30,000 houses.
This will be held up as the exemplar of the state council and stakeholders proactively working together to deliver affordable homes at Queensland’s housing summit, which begins with roundtable discussions on Friday.
Convened on Tuesday by the premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, the summit came on the back of campaigning by the Property Council of Australia, Courier Mail and homelessness and housing body Q Shelter and after her government announced an expert panel to provide advice about what councils should do to address supply shortfalls.
Declaring housing supply and affordability “the number one priority of local government right now”, the planning minister and deputy premier, Steven Miles, last week said Caboolture West was the first “priority growth area” identified by his newly launched “growth areas team”.
While the Queensland government also talks about fast-tracking social housing and building more townhouses, suburban expansion is a consistent touchstone of Palaszczuk and her ministers when addressing the housing crisis.
But Karyn Walsh, the CEO and founding member of not-for-profit organisation Micah Projects, said newly constructed outer suburbs lack transport, health and training services as well as employment opportunities needed by disadvantaged and vulnerable people.
“Greenfield sites are great for people migrating to Queensland, people who already have all the resources they need to work from home or [who] drive to work,” Walsh said.
“But we certainly know that it breaks down for poorer families, leaving them isolated at the fringes of the community.”
Tenants Queensland’s Penny Carr said new suburbs could improve the lot of some renters, but there were better ways to get more out of the housing stock we have now, rather than having to wait for new houses to be built.
She spoke of the need to measure and disincentivise houses from being left vacant by investors or used as short-term rentals on platforms such as Airbnb.
“But the most important thing for us, and the biggest impact you could make towards creating a stable housing environment, would be strong tenancy laws,” Carr said.
Carr said Queensland rent reforms, due to come into effect next month, failed to protect tenants from no-grounds evictions due to a loophole around fixed-term agreements which was leaving renters in a state of permanent instability.
What about those trying to buy their own home? Cameron Murray, a University of Sydney economist who grew up and lives in Brisbane, is working on a book aimed at busting housing myths, including that opening up more land for housing will lead to lower prices.
“You can rezone and do whatever you want out at Caboolture West,” he said, “but it’s not going to make houses cheaper.”
Murray spoke about a “built-in speed limit” of housing supply in a private property market: profit. Rather than flood the market with a glut of newly built homes, developers of large-scale estates can make far more money by releasing houses in stages, keeping demand high.
He said there was already “an unfathomable amount” of land zoned for housing in south-east Queensland: “We have Yarrabilba, we have Springfield still going, we have Flagstone, we still have North Lakes finishing, we have Caloundra South, Mango Hill, Pinkenba, Coomera.
“But you can’t supply your way down to cheap prices. Because if prices start falling, no one will keep building.”
Murray said a broad-social phenomenon of “property obsession” is driving continued urban expansion, despite it failing to bring down prices, ease rental stress or alleviate homelessness.
But the biggest winners, according to Murray, are the owners of agricultural and rural land whose properties are rezoned for high-value residential uses.
“This is just a convenient story for strategic landlords to direct investment towards their land,” Murray said.
“That’s the game that is really going on.”
