Summary
The story of this election is not just the change of government, but the warning to the major parties they can no longer take any seat for granted. There is no longer any such thing as a safe seat.
Primary votes for the major parties are down. The Nationals saw a swing against it as well. Minor parties, particularly the Greens, have had a massive moment. Independent candidates have swept through moderate Liberal seats, changing not just the country but the future of the party of Menzies.
After floods, fires and a pandemic, all in the space of three years, Australia gravitated towards candidates who made action on climate change their number one issue. After almost a decade of being told there is nothing to see here, Australians voted for candidates who wanted to see integrity back in politics.
And after women were dismissed, over and over again by the government, the government’s blue ribbon voters voted for women.
Scott Morrison was Scott Morrison to the end, thanking the defence force, police and tradies, but mentioning not a word of the teachers, nurses, frontline staff, health workers or aged care workers who got us through the pandemic.
Anthony Albanese promised to govern for all Australians, even those who did not vote for him.
He’s got his work cut out for him.
Over on Sky News, Paul Murray was telling his viewers “the resistance starts now”. But if anything, this election showed that it wasn’t what the media as a whole was serving up which won hearts and minds. It was the issues of every day life. Not demonising one of our most vulnerable communities. Not gaffes. Not gotchas, or numbers, or photo ops or scare campaigns.
It was all the questions people were asking which weren’t being addressed by the campaigns. Climate. Integrity. Cost of living.
In the end, Australia told its leaders what it wanted, instead of its leaders dictating what they thought it needed.
The major parties are on notice. It’s entirely up to them whether they rise to the occasion or not.
Thank you for joining us tonight (and this morning).
We will be back tomorrow with more of the fall out and the count.
But please – sleep tight. And take care of you.
A x
Updated
State of play
As a final summation of the state of play in the House of Representatives.
At the moment Labor is leading in just enough seats for a slim majority, but there are still 19 seats we haven’t called. I suspect quite a few of those will be ready to call in the morning, but some will have to wait for most of the postal votes to be counted.
If Labor falls short of a majority they’ll have many options from an estimated 16 crossbenchers.
This includes two to four Greens, right-wing crossbenchers like Dai Le and Bob Katter, and a large bloc of teal independents. Even if Labor wins a majority they will be aware that their majority is very slim and could be vulnerable in 2025 – so I’m sure they will still look to form alliances.
This has been a historic election, in part because Labor has been returned to government, but also because the two-party system has been seriously weakened. On the latest numbers, Labor and the Coalition have polled just over 68% of the primary vote between them, down from just under 75% in 2019. Labor looks set to form government with a primary vote currently sitting on 32.7% and the Coalition’s challenge of winning back power is made far harder because they’ve lost so many of their seats to independents, not just to a government that will be judged on its record.
In the Senate, the Greens have done very well, and are on track for 12 seats. It seems likely that Labor, Greens and ACT Senate candidate David Pocock are on track for 39 out of 76 seats.
The Coalition has lost Senate seats to the left, but also look set to lose seats to right-wing minor parties. Their third seats in Queensland, Western Australia, Victoria and Tasmania appear lost, along with their sole ACT Senate seat, and they don’t look up to the task of winning back a third seat in South Australia.
This may see a larger group of right-wing and minor parties winning the final Senate seat off the Liberal party in a number of states: One Nation, Jacqui Lambie Network and possibly United Australia. Even Legalise Cannabis appears to be in with a chance!
Overall this election result can look like a landslide victory or a slight victory, depending on how you look at it. It was a landslide defeat for the Morrison government, but only a slim victory for Labor, with the difference made up by a crossbench that will be bigger than ever in both houses.
There will be time later to examine the trends, but it is clear that the Coalition’s defeat didn’t come in the traditional marginal seats of regional and outer suburban Australia, but rather in their heartland inner city seats, where both major parties went backwards. These are seats where the campaign was dominated by demands for stronger climate action, a change in the treatment of women in politics, and the establishment of an integrity commission with teeth.
Do not be surprised if Labor chooses to nominate a speaker for the parliament who is not from the Labor benches. An independent (or even Bridget Archer as a long shot) is much more likely to get the nod to protect Labor’s numbers on the floor.
Plus it might bring back some fairness to the proceedings, after Andrew Wallace’s very short reign.
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