Good night - that's your campaign
It's midnight on the east coast, so it's time to say goodnight, and farewell to the 2013 election campaign.
I want to extend my huge thanks to Paul Owen and Mike Bowers for their brilliant contributions to this project over the past five weeks. I also want to thank the readers: a wonderfully engaged group of people.
Today:
- Australia elected a new, majority Coalition government led by Tony Abbott.
- Labor was defeated after two terms in office, and the party faced significant swings in several states - the biggest in Tasmania, which recorded a 10% swing.
- But several senior Labor players held on against the tide, giving the party a platform from which to rebuild.
- Kevin Rudd said he'd saved the furniture - but he would not continue on in the Labor leadership into oppostion.
- Abbott forms a majority government in the House of Representatives, but he faces the prospect of mining magnate Clive Palmer on the cross bench in the House of Representatives, and an unwieldy cross bench in the senate.
There is going to be a huge Senate crossbench. Possibly as many as twenty, incl. 12 Greens and 8 others.
— Ben Raue (@benraue) September 7, 2013
The senate? The count is ongoing, but the upper house seems to be all over the shop. South Australian independent Nick Xenophon is back - and he could be joined by a PUP senator and a Liberal Democart in New South Wales. A candidate from the Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party in Victoria is also in the hunt for the final senate spot.
It's brain explosion territory.
Truly.
The Australian Electoral Commission's projection at 11.30pm AEST:
ALP - 54 seats
Coalition - 91 seats
Greens - 1 seat
Katter's Australia Party - 1 seat
Independent - 1 seat
Not yet determined - 2
In addition to Clive Plamer:
- Tasmanian Independent Andrew Wilkie is back in Denison;
- The Green deputy leader Adam Bandt is back in Melbourne;
- Bob Katter got a big swing against him but is likely to prevail in Kennedy;
- And the two NSW seats formerly held by Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott revert to the National Party.
Clive Palmer .. come on down
Both the ABC, and our own poll analyst, Simon Jackman, believe mining magnate Clive Palmer will win the Queensland seat of Fairfax.
Seats Labor has either lost or, is predicted to lose, on the current count
Let's walk through the House of Representatives first. Labor has lost, or is predicted to have lost the following seats:
- Corangamite
- Deakin
- Robertson
- Lindsay
- Banks
- La Trobe
- Petrie
- Capricornia
- Lingiari
- Eden-Monaro (that count is incredibly close)
- Page
- Dobell
- Hindmarsh
- Lyons
- Bass
- Barton
- Braddon
Err.. I don't entirely follow the homily here - but evidently Rupert is well pleased with his night's work.
Aust election public sick of public sector workers and phony welfare scroungers sucking life out of economy.Others nations to follow in time
— Rupert Murdoch (@rupertmurdoch) September 7, 2013
Who doesn't belong in this picture?
And just for a touch of the bizarre - check out the photo-bomber on stage at the Four Seasons.
Security dispatched him in short order.
A tale of two election evenings - by Mike Bowers and Penny Bradfield.
Abbott All-stars #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/gN4tByY3Nt
— PaulTOwen (@PaulTOwen) September 7, 2013
Just before I get back to seats and the senate - Victorian Labor MP Bill Shorten is being interviewed after Kevin Rudd's announcement earlier this evening that he will not lead Labor into opposition.
Shorten is regarded internally as the most likely person to be the next leader of the Labor Party. He again declines to say whether or not he's a candidate for the leadership.
Shorten:
Tonight is a night of reflection.
But Shorten is nailing his colours to the mast on the carbon price post election. Shorten says Labor has a mandate from the voters to put a price on carbon pollution. He says the party should not walk away from this period of government. Labor made that mistake in 1996 - and should not repeat is, is his rationale.
Here's the latest two party preferred vote
- Australian Labor Party 46.96%
- Liberal/National Coalition 53.04%
Now we are through the speeches, I will walk backwards and bring you up to date with where we are in the House and in the Senate.
Updated
Kevin Rudd bows out of the 2013 Election #politicslive pic.twitter.com/IPfEpFN5ma
— Mike Bowers (@mpbowers) September 7, 2013
There was a security incident at the Four Seasons.
A young man has been tackled to ground on the stage after trying to get into the Abbott family photo #2GBNews #abbott
— Natalie Peters (@nataliejpeters) September 7, 2013
Former independent MP Tony Windsor.
@TonyAbbottMHR congratulations and good luck.
— Tony Windsor (@TonyHWindsor) September 7, 2013
Abbott's wife Margie, and three daughters, have joined him now on the stage. There is some interest on social media that the young Abbott ladies are all wearing white.
Why are they all wearing white? Seriously. #australiavotes
— Adam Liaw (@adamliaw) September 7, 2013
Why are Tony Abbott's daughters all dressed in white??!!
— Nick Feik (@NickFeik) September 7, 2013
Abbott, who has taken the stage alone - thanks his campaign director, Brian Loughnane, his chief of staff Peta Credlin:
The smartest and the fiercest political warrior I have ever worked with.
He thanks his frontbench team.
Abbott says the time for campaigning has passed: the time for governing has begun.
I pledge myself to the service of our government.
Updated
Tony Abbott says the Labor's Party's vote is at its lowest level in one hundred years.
Abbott wants to address the Australian people.
In a week or so, the Governor-General will swear in a new government.
A government of no surprises and no excuses.
Abbott says the boats will stop, the carbon tax will be gone, the roads will be built and the budget will be heading back to surplus. Australia is under new management and is open for business, he says.
He thanks the first time Coalition voters.
We will not let you down.
Abbott says good governments governs for all Australians.
We will not leave anyone behind.
Tony Abbott addresses supporters at the Four Seasons in Sydney
I can inform you that the government of Australia has changed.
(TONY, TONY, TONY.)
You obviously enjoyed that so let me say that again, the government of Australia has changed.
On his way out of the venue, Kevin Rudd told one supporter:
They thought they were going to kill us, but we proved them wrong. You can't extinguish hope.
Julia Gillard makes her own concession speech, via Twitter
A tough night for Labor. But a spirited fight by Kevin, Albo, George + the whole team. My thoughts are with you all. JG
— Julia Gillard (@JuliaGillard) September 7, 2013
Rudd uses this final speech to dig in behind his party reforms. He says the democratisation of the party must continue. Rudd says the reforms to the Labor Party rules which open leadership ballots to grassroots members must be preserved.
(There is a brewing fight behind the scenes on this question, so Rudd has done this deliberately. He might have agreed to move on from the leadership, but not from his legacy.)
Labor, he says, must go on being the party of the little guy.
Rudd will not recontest the Labor leadership
Rudd continues.
We have been a movement of hard heads and soft hearts. This is a great movement and I salute the movement for its strength, its vitality and its future.
But the future will not include Kevin Rudd as leader.
I will not be recontesting the leadership of the Australian Labor Party.
The Australian people need a fresh start. The time has come for renewal.
Updated
Rudd thanks his deputy Anthony Albanese, the campaign spokesman, Penny Wong - the branch members, the unions, the army of volunteers. He thanks his political adviser Bruce Hawker - and staffers Patrick Gorman and Fiona Sugden.
I love you all, for putting up with me, I really do thank you for that.
Rudd thanks the national secretary George Wright and the campaign staff.
I thank you, the army of true believers.
There they are, in Brisvegas.
Rudd continues.
Labor always rises from defeat. We've done it before and we'll do it again.
Ben Chifley's light on the hill ...
cannot be extinguished.
There's a time of rebuilding ahead. We can't lose sight of the light. It is what some have called ...
the audacity of hope.
(Some indeed. Some dude said that. Somewhere.)
He thanks the good burghers of Griffith. It wouldn't be in keeping with prime ministerial dignity to say "Bill Glasson eat your heart out" ... but ...
(Eat your heart out.)
Updated
Rudd opens his speech by saying now is the time for unity. He has called Liberal leader Tony Abbott to concede.
Rudd wishes Abbott well in managing the stresses and strains of high office.
We know a little of what that is like.
Rudd says he wishes the Abbott government well.
Now he wants to speak to Labor supporters.
There's a deafening cheer in the room at the GABBA.
A couple more days and we might have got there.
Rudd says he accepts responsibility for the result, he did his best but it wasn't enough. Rudd argues he has saved the furniture. Labor will remain a viable fighting force for the future.
He said Labor has retained every seat in Queensland.
I saw Sky News saying we are all gone, including me.
I'm proud of the fact that every Cabinet minister has been returned at this election.
He borrows the old Keatingism - this one is for the true believers.
Kevin Rudd takes the stage in Brisbane to concede defeat
The mood in the room in the GABBA is almost like Labor won.
Rudd looks jubilant, even though it's defeat.
Geez, I thought we'd lost.
A chant has broken out in the #ruddroom with young white shirts chanting his K-E-V-I-N. He must be appearing soon....#ausvotes
— Gabrielle Chan (@gabriellechan) September 7, 2013
Kevin Rudd is apparently not that far away with his concession speech. (Although this is Kevin Rudd we are talking about, so the opposite could also be true.)
In the meantime, here's a quick take on who's winning the television battle from Guardian Australia's Vicky Frost, watching at home.
The ABC is romping home to victory on this, in part because both Seven and Nine are putting up enormous panels of men in suits and headache making graphics – Seven's should come with its own health warning.
On Nine, the debate is so compelling that one panel member was reading his Blackberry rather than paying any attention to the discussion.
Kerry O'Brien is pretty much unflappable on ABC1, in contrast to Antony Green who appears to be largely defeated by his graphics – afflicted by touchscreen fat finger that renders some seats effective no-go areas. Much better is Joe O'Brien in his virtual Canberra chamber (where everyone apparently sits in an awkward crossed-leg positions).
It's not as heavyweight, admittedly, but Ten's Election Project is very watchable – and clear. It also managed a pretty decent discussion about refugees while everyone else was droning on about percentage swings. A jolly surprise.
When it rains, it pours apparently.
Liberal aspirant Jaymes Diaz.
Just not his night.
(What's with the random 'y's. Yes that's a comment.)
More dramas for the Jaymes Diaz campaign.. His brother Jayson just crashed the campaign van on the way in #auspol pic.twitter.com/30y9UwpUHT
— Cameron Price (@campricenews) September 7, 2013
Here's an update on Bob Katter.
With nearly half the vote counted, Bob Katter is hanging on in Kennedy with 52.33% of the 2-party vote, a swing of 16% against him.
— Malcolm Farnsworth (@mfarnsworth) September 7, 2013
It's safe to call Melbourne now, by the by.
Green Adam Bandt will be returning to Canberra as the member for Melbourne.
We need to get ourselves into fighting shape to get back to government in three years time.
That's Labor's Wayne Swan, pumped and evidently relieved - speaking up in Lilley now.
Over at the GABBA, Mike Bowers tells me the feeling in the Rudd function room has transformed over the last little while. It seems to be more relief than booze - but who can say? The Labor folks at the GABBA just gave Liberal deputy leader Julie Biship a big BOO on the TV.
Swan says Labor's agenda has been vindicated in Lilley. Labor needs to get past the fixation with personalities he says. The party needs to focus on policy. Fascinating, but what are you going to do about the carbon tax post election, Mark Reilly of the Seven Network, asks.
As if I'm going to answer that "dumb" question, Swan says.
We'll sit down and talk about what our options are.
The latest two party preferred count
- Australian Labor Party 47.32%
- Liberal/National Coalition 52.68%
Labor's Chris Bowen is looking delighted at having held his western Sydney seat of McMahon.
Thank you, and I won't let you down.
But Labor in New South Wales has tonight lost the assistant treasurer, David Bradbury, Daryl Melham, Deb O'Neill and John Murphy.
David Bradbury will be replaced in Canberra by Liberal Fiona Scott - the lady who shot to prominence in the 2013 campaign courtesy of Tony Abbott's assessment of her sex appeal; and her observation that asylum seekers were causing traffic jams in western Sydney.
The former climate change minister Greg Combet is on the ABC giving Labor a stern talking to.
You can't have disunity and destabilisation.
That has got to be a critical takeout of this election.
Labor's Bill Shorten, meanwhile, is on the Seven Network.
He's playing down leadership speculation - but he's already speaking about Kevin Rudd in the past tense.
Shorten is asked about his leadership ambitions.
This is a night of reflection. Tonight's not a night for that sort of speculation.
I think Kevin Rudd did a very good job in helping Labor candidates be returned.
Here's the former treasurer, Wayne Swan - who has hung on in Queensland - thanking his foot soldiers in Lilley tonight. This will be a hugely heartening result for Labor tonight. Swan may not will a public popularity contest - but in Labor ranks, he's enormously popular.
Swanny thanks the supporters first - "everyone here tonight has played a really important role". pic.twitter.com/WPYTDn0IXe
— Amy Remeikis (@AmyRemeikis) September 7, 2013
Boy. I hope I didn't speak too soon about Bob Katter in Kennedy.
I've just checked in on his result. There's been a 17% swing against him in Kennedy.
There's a fight on up there.
Julia Gillard has taken to Twitter to congratulate her successor in Lalor.
Congrats to Joanne Ryan on her election as Member for Lalor. She’ll be a strong and articulate voice for a proud community we both love. JG
— Julia Gillard (@JuliaGillard) September 7, 2013
I don't want to alarm anyone - but it is looking possible that Clive Palmer will be in the House of Representatives after this evening. (Palmer's primary vote is 29% at the moment - but pre-poll votes will be a factor in this seat.)
Palmer, and of course, Bob Katter. And we thought the colour of the 43rd parliament might be behind us.
The PUP has polled 12% in Queensland thus far this evening.
Adam Bandt has done very well, but I'm not certain he's absolutely 100% across the line yet.
Guardian Australia's polling analyst Simon Jackman.
At this stage of the count, rumours of an ALP disaster in Queensland seem overstated.
Every Queensland Labor incumbent is leading at this stage.
Good evening Melbourne.
Melbourne called for Bandt - wild celebrations among Green supporters pic.twitter.com/CmJH0dd2Xc
— Oliver Milman (@olliemilman) September 7, 2013
Looks like we're in! Congratulations @AdamBandt! http://t.co/YVISEv4apq
— Greens (@Greens) September 7, 2013
Results are coming in now for the seat of Melbourne.
With almost 17% of the vote counted, there's a swing of more than 7% to Adam Bandt.
Bandt is on 44.54% of the primary vote.
Popping the corks already?The waiter says it's the first of many boxes heading upstairs #LiberalHQ #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/DJHqdfGiN5
— Laura Jayes (@ljayes) September 7, 2013
Swings, by state
On current figures - here are the swings against Labor by state, on a two-party preferred basis. This result is all over the place basically - but it's not as bad as thought for Labor in New South Wales and Queensland.
- New South Wales -2.92%
- Victoria -4.92%
- Queensland -0.65%
- Western Australia 0.00 0.00 0 +0.00
- South Australia -4.11%
- Tasmania -11.25%
- Australian Capital Territory -1.18%
- Northern Territory -0.89%
Kevin Rudd looks to be safe in his seat of Griffith
The Labor leader, Kevin Rudd, appears to be safe in his Brisbane seat - current figures suggest he'll be able to get across the line this evening with Green preferences.
Labor's Wayne Swan is hanging on in Lilley. Just.
The Labor faithful in Brisvegas this evening.
Drink early, drink often.
I think we'll take this as a comment from Green senator, Scott Ludlam.
ok rupert. looks like you got your guy #ausvotes
— Scott Ludlam (@SenatorLudlam) September 7, 2013
At this stage of your election evening - our polling expert, Simon Jackman - says the national swing against Labor is 5.5%, two party preferred.
Updated
Nearly 20% counted in Qld. Palmer on just under 12.5%.
— Bernard Keane (@BernardKeane) September 7, 2013
Clive Palmer is turning into the story of the night. The PUP is getting solid results everywhere. Palmer himself is contesting the Queensland seat of Fairfax. The mining magnate is currently around 2,000 votes behind the LNP candidate.
For those interested in results in the seat of Melbourne - the seat currently held by the Green deputy leader Adam Bandt - there's no data yet.
The first ABC prediction this evening for the new House of Representatives chamber:
- Labor - 56 seats
- Coalition - 93 seats
- Other - 1 seat
In the Queensland seat of Griffith - with 6% of the vote counted - Kevin Rudd is looking good. In McMahon, with 2.7% of the vote counted, Chris Bowen is ahead.
For now.
The ABC calls a victory for the Coalition
Antony Green has called the 2013 poll for Tony Abbott.
Have a look at the ABC front page - I don't think you could get anymore definitive than that in terms of any early call.
Updated
Speaking as we were before of the western Sydney seat of Greenway - and the rather curious Liberal candidate, Jaymes Diaz - so far the Labor incumbent, Michelle Rowland, is ahead.
(The margin in that seat is 0.9%.)
Early figures in that seat, but Rowland looking good thus far.
The ABC's election analyst Antony Green says he's inching up to calling the result for the Coalition based on consistent state based swings against Labor in the early figures.
Green says there's an 11% swing against Labor in Tasmania. The swing is smaller in other states, but the swing is clearly on.
The point of course is this: Labor is currently in minority government - it needs to be winning seats. There is no sign yet in anyone's projections of Labor winning seats.
Good evening Mike Bowers, watching on at the Labor event in Brisbane.
He tells me the booze is already flowing in Brisbane. Not in a celebration.
Guardian Australia's polling expert Simon Jackman tells me Clive Palmer's PUP is travelling well in early figures in Queensland.
Only small booths thus far so perhaps the result is overstated - but it could be a good night for the voluble mining billionaire.
Labor's Wayne Swan, again early figures in the seat of Lilley in Queensland - there's only a small swing against the former treasurer thus far.
Swan's colleagues have been concerned he will lose his seat tonight. There's not been a great deal of hope, although the view is it will be close in Lilley.
An early projection in the seat of Eden Monaro - the seat currently held by Labor's Mike Kelly - is showing a swing to the Liberals.
The results for Labor in Tasmania: shocking thus far.
Good evening to the lovely photo-journalist, Penny Bradfield, who is over with the Liberal Party in Sydney tonight at the Four Seasons.
I note the ABC's election analyst, Antony Green - says he might call the election in ten minutes. There's actually very limited data. The data there is suggests swings on against the Labor Party, but the amount of actual hard data is next to nothing.
Over on the Seven Network, the deputy prime minister Anthony Albanese was just asked whether he was confident about tonight.
We'll wait and see ..
Watching on, in Germany.
Gizmodo Australia's election centre, live from Germany! @ Berlin http://t.co/W2AxYzfsW7
— Luke Hopewell (@lukehopewell) September 7, 2013
Updated
Jaymes certainly has been out there campaigning ..
I confess here in the Guardian Australia office we had a small guffaw at this observation a moment ago from the Liberal senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells about the Liberal candidate for the seat of Greenway - Jaymes Diaz.
Fierravanti-Wells is providing some fill for the ABC television coverage right now ahead of the results coming in. At the present time she's trying to pretend that Diaz - the Liberal candidate hardly seen in Greenway after declaring the Coalition had a plan to stop asylum boats, but then being unable to describe what the plan was - was visible on the hustings.
Updated
Boy - the former NT Labor senator Trish Crossin is getting in early. Not even fifteen minutes after the polls close. A bit early to call for a new Labor national secretary, surely.
So if we see a massive defeat tonight then George Wright has to go. Worst national Secretary we have had....can't... http://t.co/ZiyPxnI7Qo
— Trish Crossin (@trishcrossin) September 7, 2013
I've had mixed reports from Labor people over the past day or so about the likely fate of the treasurer, Chris Bowen, in his western Sydney seat of McMahon. One senior NSW Labor person told me on Friday that he believed Bowen would be OK - that he'd hold out against the anti-Labor tide in the west. Another told me that the Liberal candidate, Ray King, was on a primary vote of 47%. If true, that would be bad news for Bowen.
Updated
The government will be defeated tonight, that is the reality.
That's the retiring Labor frontbencher, Stephen Smith, calling it on ABC24.
Smith says the only question tonight is how bad the defeat is. Is it the 1970s? Or is it 1996?
OK that's it. You've done your worst.
Polls have closed in the eastern states.
Updated
Balloons and ABC 24 at Rudd's function. Ok so not much happening yet. pic.twitter.com/eLc45ahYFY
— samantha hawley (@samanthahawley) September 7, 2013
From the random stats department.
The folks from Twitter have shared the following observations.
Peak sausage.
- Already today - the peak worldwide in the use of the term “sausage” on twitter in 2013.
- There have been 2.34 million total tweets about the election since it was called.
- There has been a significant spike in use of terms “vote” or “voting” as people tweet their participation in election day.
- 57% of tweets about Abbott (@TonyAbbottMHR) vs. 43% for Rudd (@KRuddMP) on election day only.
- The most discussed topics today: economy/jobs, energy/climate (carbon tax), technology (NBN).
A completely and utterly glorious Australian election day 2013.
This sounds like a concession.
To my fantastic team in Forde; thanks.You are magnificent. It was an honour to work with you. To Kevin Rudd, thank you for the opportunity
— Peter Beattie (@SmartState1) September 7, 2013
A Labor person said to me on Friday that there has been a lot of focus on the punchy frontpages of the News Corp-owned The Daily Telegraph in Sydney throughout this campaign - but the view in Labor was the punchy front pages of the Brisbane Courier Mail, in fact, inflicted far more damage.
There is an exit poll floating around in Kevin Rudd's seat of Griffith suggesting the vote in that seat is 50/50.
Dear oh dear. Bit early in the night perhaps.
KRudd's already plotting a new look for his Return With Vengeance tour, with no chance of humility : pic.twitter.com/P3Kj7Qj9Hj
— Philip White (@whiteswine) September 7, 2013
Half an hour to polls closing in Australia's eastern states. Better get cracking if you've not yet voted.
That's fortitude .. sizzling to the close.
PSA: Still sizzling at Fitzroy Primary. http://t.co/SpOdeu1LWj
— Karen Pickering (@ThatPickering) September 7, 2013
Good evening and welcome to our live coverage of the results of election 2013. My Guardian Australia colleague Helen Davidson has been covering events around the country thoughout the day. If you've been out in the Saturday sunshine, smelling the pansies, thinking of anything but election events, you can catch up on all the day's developments in Helen's blog here.
Some of the TV pundits appear determined to end your election BBQs early this evening. Sky News is broadcasting an exit poll by Newspoll which suggests the result is much as the national opinion polls have predicted - Coalition 53%, Labor 47%.
A decisive majority for Tony Abbott and the Coalition in other words. One prediction suggests Labor will only hold one seat in Queensland after tonight - the seat of Rankin.
That of course is some reversal. Labor's strategy going in to this contest was all about trying to ground in Queensland to offset losses in other states. It would appear that strategy has not worked.
Updated
