For both Australia and South Africa, before their World Cup semi-final, the main feeling could be relief that neither has to play India. The downside for the winner is that they have to go to Ahmedabad to play India. After the hosts racked up nearly 400 in the first semi-final against New Zealand in a gout of liquid stats, the second has a much lower profile.
At least, lower profile locally. In the competing countries that won’t be the case. Although another thing out of balance, aside from India’s dominance so far, is the significance of this result. In a year when South Africa has already won the Rugby World Cup, adding an elusive cricket prize would be huge – a moment of national vindication and celebration. Australian supporters might roll over in bed, grunt approvingly at the scorecard, and throw the World Cup on the pile with the other five.
Even Australia’s players have been there and done that. The bulk of the current team, anyway, were part of the 2015 win: David Warner, Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood all played in that XI, while Pat Cummins and Mitchell Marsh scored winner’s medals from the bench. As did the current selector George Bailey, who will pick all seven of those players in the semi-final and beyond should they make it.
The only lack of surety in Australia’s camp might be to do with the weather, if inconsistent reports of rain follow the verge of cyclone season in the Bay of Bengal. By some logic, a shorter contest would favour the more explosive batting of Marcus Stoinis; a full-length grind might need the innings-building qualities of Marnus Labuschagne.
One or other has to make way now that Maxwell has been passed fit to return, after exhaustion from the severe cramps he endured during his double century while saving the match against Afghanistan. Maxwell had a hamstring scan two days before the match, but it was likely due to soreness from those cramps. He batted without issue that day and the next.
But perhaps the selection question could be less about weather than about approach. The pitch is tipped to be a slow turner, the same strip that England used to defeat Pakistan late in the group stage. South Africa have mentioned playing two spinners. Australia could respond with Labuschagne’s accumulation but Stoinis has been cultivated in recent years as an attacking weapon against spin, someone to counterstrike alongside Maxwell. Either selection could be argued for as spin-specific.
Australia will keep going with the same approach: Adam Zampa and his 22 wickets for the campaign as the specialist spinner, Maxwell in support, then the main three fast bowlers with Starc returning to replace Sean Abbott. Ignore the first week of the tournament and this is a team that has built a dominant campaign together, knocking off seven wins in succession. The only problem is that the first two games were heavy losses to the two remaining obstacles, South Africa and India.
Even in those wins, Australia have yet to put together a complete game. Beating Pakistan, New Zealand and the Netherlands relied on huge runs from the opening bats. All but the Dutch thrashed heavy runs in reply. Maxwell had to make the biggest score ever in a run chase to beat Afghanistan, Marsh had to go pretty close in beating Bangladesh. Sri Lanka were flying through the first half of their batting innings, and made inroads trying to defend 209. An underclubbed total in Pune worked out only because of England’s lack of batting confidence.
Perhaps a campaign built on random individual feats can work. If Australia are unpredictable, that makes them harder for a highly regulated team to plan against. South Africa have one plan: bat first, and play out the same innings every time. That works if the coin falls their way, or if opposing captains are dense enough to choose badly. One could yet happen in Kolkata, the other surely won’t – unless the prospect of rain makes teams want to chase?
Whether Australia’s trip home begins from Kolkata or from Ahmedabad, it will be the end of the one-day road for many. Warner has said as much, Starc has intimated it. Smith, Hazlewood and Cummins are unlikely to make it through four years to another World Cup – even if their age permits it, the physical demand is too high. Maxwell and Marsh are the only class of 2015 members with a strong case to continue. That choice would be much easier as dual winners, but even with only two knockouts to play, that prospect seems a long way off.
