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ABC News
Business
energy reporter Daniel Mercer

Australia's energy crisis makes winners out of fossil fuel exporters and losers of everyone else, expert says

Increasingly unreliable coal plants have cost Australia's biggest energy companies dearly. (JuergenPM: Public Domain)

This month, Australia's third-biggest power provider EnergyAustralia revealed it had plunged to a $1.6 billion loss for the first six months of this year.

The result came as something of a shock to the average punter grown used to the idea that sky-high wholesale power prices would be a boon for electricity giants.

Then came this week, when the big two in Australia – Origin Energy and AGL – reported slumping profits in their electricity businesses.

Tim Buckley, the founder of research firm Climate Energy Finance, said the results could be boiled down to a fairly simple explanation – rocketing coal and gas prices were a blessing for exporters and a curse for everyone else.

"Consumers are getting screwed whether it's through gas prices going through the roof or electricity prices doubling, tripling, that sort of stuff," Mr Buckley said.

"There's the domestic energy companies that are just getting buffeted by the same unpredictable forces.

"The ones who are making out like bandits are the ones who are the big fossil fuel commodity exporters."

This week gave the clearest picture yet about the winners and losers from the unprecedented chaos gripping Australia's energy markets.

Mr Buckley said contrary to expectations, electricity providers were suffering.

Crisis no boon for utilities

Reasons for this, he said, included the increasingly unreliable nature of their coal-fired power plants, whose deteriorating performance was often leaving them short of capacity to supply the market.

Coal still accounts for two thirds of electricity generation on the east coast, and prices have soared. (AAP)

He said on top of that, those same electricity companies were exposed to fuel costs for coal and gas, which had been propelled to record highs amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

What's more, uncertainty over energy policy at a national level for more than a decade had sowed the seeds for underinvestment in the renewable energy that would be needed to replace ageing fossil fuel generation.

Mr Buckley said the upshot was a painful one for the likes of AGL and Origin.

"The providers of integrated utilities are really suffering," he said.

"And I would put that down to the massive policy chaos we've had over the last 10 years.

"If you look at what AGL says, why have their results been smashed?

"They outlined five key factors and all of them are fossil fuel related."

By contrast to the electricity industry, Mr Buckley said the reporting season had underlined just how profitable fossil fuel exporting had become.

He noted that a roll call of Australia's biggest commodity players – from oil and gas producer Santos to coal exporter Whitehaven and global mining giant BHP – had booked windfall gains from their fossil fuel operations in the past year.

Consumers to bear the brunt

Gas prices domestically and internationally have soared to levels that have never been seen before. (Supplied: Senex Energy)

Ironically for Origin, he said the company's stake in the Australia Pacific LNG business in Queensland had offset the reverses experienced by its electricity business.

"The investors in those companies are effectively getting the windfall profits that we, the consumer, are paying for," he said.

"But probably unlike any time in Australia's history, because of the opening up of massive export capacity in coal and, more recently, in east coast LNG, we have now moved to export price parity in our east coast energy market.

"And that, to me, is what's really evident in the results this week."

Explaining the global energy crisis

Dale Koenders, the head of energy and utilities research at investment bank Barrenjoey, said the upheaval in global energy markets spelled trouble for domestic power providers.

Mr Koenders also cautioned that unless the heat came out of the international economy – possibly as a result of spiralling energy costs – Australia's electricity industry could count on little relief.

"I think what's happening now is the amount of resilience that exists in the electricity market is reducing substantially as we force in renewables without the hydro or the batteries to back them up," Mr Koenders said.

"So, until Snowy Hydro starts in 2027, you're likely to see greater volatility and greater reliance on spot supply for coal and gas.

"So, greater reliance on global energy markets which are suffering their own energy shortages given the Russian invasion [of Ukraine].

"For now, unless we see a substantial slowdown in global GDP, recession, we're likely to see a continuation of this volatility in high electricity prices.

"It's a period of greater uncertainty for those major companies where they really will be tested in terms of their foresight, planning and risk mitigation."

Despite efforts to retire much of its coal-fired generation fleet, AGL has been slow to build new renewable plants. (ABC Rural: Cherie von Hörchner)

No relief without energy plan

According to Mr Koenders, none of the volatility affecting the east coast energy market was good news for households or businesses.

He said consumers had so far only seen a fraction of the price pain that was likely to flow from the crisis affecting the national electricity market and gas prices on the east coast.

But he warned that bills would eventually have to catch up with surging wholesale costs.

Climate Energy Finance director Tim Buckley says there are few winners from the energy crisis. (ABC News: Daniel Irvine)

"I don't think it matters which provider you are with," he said.

"We are only part way through passing on the cost of peak global energy prices to consumers.

"So, unless we can find a rational way to navigate energy transition over the next five years, these higher prices are likely to become the new norm.

"We haven't seen the worst of it yet."

It was a view shared by Mr Buckley.

"It's horrific for consumers," he said.

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