Both of Victoria’s political leaders were stuck at home this week – Daniel Andrews having tested positive for Covid-19 and Matthew Guy as a close contact of his nine-year-old son.
But it probably wouldn’t have made much of a difference if they weren’t.
After seven very busy years, the most reformist government in the country has only announced – and stuck to – one new, major policy initiative in 2022.
There are several reasons for this. First, the upper house has become a much more difficult place for the government to pass legislation.
With the defection of former government minister Adem Somyurek and his factional ally Kaushaliya Vaghela to the crossbench, Labor only has 16 MPs in the 40-seat upper house. Without the support of the opposition, it now requires five other independents to pass legislation.
The government can no longer rely on the votes of Fiona Patten, Andy Meddick and Samantha Ratnam alone – it burned some bridges with the rest of the crossbench last year when it only consulted with the trio on its pandemic bill.
While the pandemic bill became a lightning rod for anti-lockdown and anti-vaccination groups, who occupied the steps of state parliament for weeks, the government cannot afford another such display.
Also, all eyes have been on Canberra and the federal budget, as well as an election to be called as early as the weekend. It makes little sense for the state leaders to fight for air time with their federal counterparts.
Indeed, Victorian MPs from across the political spectrum have all expressed the need for clean air between the federal and state elections. Some Labor MPs have questioned whether the state budget should go ahead on 3 May, given its proximity to the possible federal election dates of 14 or 21 May.
Several Victorian Liberals, meanwhile, have privately suggested a need for distance between the federal and state party “brands”, given the prime minister Scott Morrison’s unpopularity in the state. Some have said a Morrison loss would actually be best for their chances at the state poll, though Guy disputes this.
Which brings us to the 26 November election. It’s not new for a government to avoid legislation that could be controversial in the final year of its term. When it comes to big change, governments need time to consult with stakeholders and the community, allay any concerns and then spruik the results.
This is why the level crossing removal project is seen as so successful electorally. It was promised at the 2014 election, construction began in the first year of the Andrews government’s term and several were completed before the 2018 election. Commuters benefited from more trains, drivers from less traffic.
Without time, the government is open to political attacks. This is largely why the government dumped a policy to tax property developers in order to fund social housing just 10 days after it was announced in February. Labor MPs feared it handed the opposition a golden opportunity to target the government over housing affordability.
Its trial of sick leave for casuals, on the other hand, has broad support.
Meanwhile, the opposition has released a 44-page document in February outlining its key principles to “make Victoria number one again”, which largely contains earlier announcements. Its policy backflips – it is now supporting the government’s plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 and its mental health levy on big businesses – have received more attention.
So what would’ve happened this week if Andrews and Guy weren’t isolating? No doubt they both would’ve commented on the federal budget.
Perhaps Andrews would’ve said the state got a shabby deal – and in terms of new money it has – just 5.9%, or $208m, out of a total $3.56bn worth of new infrastructure funding over the four-year budget period has been allocated to Victoria. It is also the only state without a city deal with the commonwealth and has been left out of a $7.1bn regional economies fund.
Instead, we had ministers James Merlino and Danny Pearson describing the budget as “deeply disappointing” and “bad for Victorians”, respectively.
Perhaps Guy would’ve used the same line he did on Monday, when he said the state’s transport infrastructure minister, Jacinta Allan, needed to “grow up” and stop blaming the federal government and treating it “like an ATM”.
There would’ve been commentary from both leaders on the state’s ambulance crisis – another code red was called on Tuesday night due to high demand, and then a day later, an inquiry into Ambulance Victoria’s culture found the emergency service was a “boys club” that excluded women and people from diverse backgrounds from career progression.
But if the Andrews government is serious about reform, there’s more to do.
An inquiry into the state’s criminal justice system last week found bail laws strengthened after the murder of Jill Meagher and the 2017 Bourke Street massacre have led to a rise in the number of low-level offenders in prison on remand who would not otherwise be there. Aboriginal Victorians, young people and women are disproportionately affected.
Aboriginal women made up 14% of the total female prison population in 2020 despite Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people making up less than 0.8% of the Victorian population.
Among the inquiry’s 100 recommendations is to review the laws and raise the age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 14. Several MPs within the Labor party are known to support such reforms.
A mother of three, known to the inquiry as “Amy”, gave evidence that she was misidentified as an aggressor during a family violence incident, arrested and denied bail. She pleaded guilty and was released after 120 days in jail. She lost custody of two of her children, her home and career.
How many families will be separated, how many children jailed, between now and when it’s politically convenient to act?
