What we learned, Tuesday 14 June
We are going to put this little blog to bed now. Thanks, as ever, for your comments, correspondence and company. I hope the lights are staying on where you are.
Be well, all of you.
A brief summary of today’s developments:
- The Australian Energy Market Operator has again warned of the threat of widespread blackouts caused by power shortages. Five states face supply gaps in coming days.
- Western Australia will shut its last coal-fired power plant by the end of the decade
- Foreign minister Penny Wong will visit her NZ counterpart.
- Former Wallabies captain David Pocock has become the first independent candidate to win a territory senate seat, elected to parliament as a senator for the ACT.
- Australian stocks plunged, following a global sell-off of stocks on fears of worsening inflation, and ...
- The Australian Socceroos will play in a fifth straight World Cup Finals, thanks, in the significant part, to the rubber-limbed genius of goalkeeper Andrew Redmayne.
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Curiouser and curiouser...
Conservation officials in New Zealand believe mass die-offs of sea birds are becoming more frequent as climate crisis disrupts food chains. Here’s the full report:
Updated
Western Australia will shut its last coal-fired power unit before the end of the decade and spend an extra half a billion dollars to foster new jobs for displayed workers, the state government said.
Later this year, the first of the 854-megawatt Muja power station’s units near Collie, south of Perth, will close, with the entire plant to be shut by 2029. The nearby 340MW Collie plant will exit the market by the end of 2027, the premier, Mark McGowan, said in a statement on Tuesday.
Georgina Kekea reports from Honiara:
The controversial security deal struck between Solomon Islands and China that caught the western world off guard was needed to maintain internal security and help fight climate change, a leading Solomon Islands official has said, defending his country’s right to choose its allies.
Lovely read from Emma Kemp on Andrew ‘the Grey Wiggle’ Redmayne...
The Socceroos goalkeeper’s penalty shootout save made headlines, but his journey to Qatar has not been straightforward.
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Penny Wong headed to New Zealand on fifth international trip since taking office
The foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, is about to embark on her fifth international trip since taking office last month.
Her New Zealand counterpart, Nanaia Mahuta, announced that she would welcome Wong for an in-person meeting this Thursday, saying “deep cooperation and partnerships” would stand both countries in good stead.
In a statement reported by New Zealand media, Mahuta said the formal bilateral talks with Wong would provide “an opportunity for new conversations on ways to advance our partnership”. Mahuta said climate change was the “number one security issue” for the Pacific:
I look forward to talking to the new foreign minister in more detail on Australia’s climate change agenda, and further ways we can assist Pacific Island nations on mitigation and adaptation measures.
On broader Pacific challenges, Aotearoa New Zealand seeks to elevate the Pacific Island voice, and support collaboration and partnership through established institutions, especially the Pacific Islands Forum.
As Katharine Murphy observed in this dispatch from Indonesia last week, Wong has hit the ground running. The day she was sworn in as foreign affairs minister, Wong flew with the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, to Tokyo for the long-scheduled Quad leaders’ summit.
Her second trip, later in that same week, was to Fiji, where she made Australia’s case to be the region’s parter of choice amid growing competition with China for influence.
Wong’s third trip was to both Samoa and Tonga.
In her fourth trip, Wong travelled with Albanese to Indonesia last week.
Wong’s forthcoming trip to New Zealand follows Albanese’s meetings with Jacinda Ardern in Sydney on Thursday and Friday.
The new prime minister has promised to consider changing the way the section 501 visa cancellation policy is applied to address New Zealand’s concerns.
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Daniel Hurst’s file is here:
NSW to set up fund for environmental offset credits, in part to compensate for state renewable energy projects
A new $106.7m NSW government fund dedicated to buying and selling biodiversity credits in the state’s environmental offset market will be used to help the Perrottet government compensate for habitat clearing for its renewable energy zones.
The NSW treasurer, Matt Kean, and the environment minister, James Griffin, announced the forthcoming state budget would include an investment to establish a biodiversity credits supply fund within the NSW planning and environment department.
Currently, developers looking to offset the environmental impacts of projects can purchase offset credits from private landholders who protect their properties for conservation under an agreement with the state government.
The new fund will see the state government purchase credits and sell them on to developers.
The government says the fund will serve several purposes, including ensuring that there is an “efficient and trusted” source of credits and that there is a supply of credits available to offset projects when they are needed.
Griffin said it was also intended to meet the offset requirements for large infrastructure projects the state government has in the pipeline, including its five planned renewable energy zones.
He said the fund would create a significant increase in the supply of available credits that could be used for projects that were important to the community.
Griffin said:
This means the NSW government will be securing more habitat for threatened species and ecosystems sooner, effectively bringing forward environmental benefits.
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ASX200 ends trading down 3.6%, the biggest single-day drop in two years
Meanwhile in those other, bigger markets, such as the ASX, it’s been a grim day.
The ASX200 benchmark of (you guessed it) 200 top companies on the stock market lost 3.6%, which apparently is the biggest single-day drop in just over two years.
It could have been worse, though, after the market opened a tad more than 5.2% lower.
Asian markets were down too, but more in the 1-2% range. That’s partly because they were trading on Monday – while Australia was mostly on holiday – and took a chunk of their losses then.
The big Australian banks all had another sour day. Despite some investors saying banks don’t mind higher interest rates, if they rise too fast, there’s more chance of bad debts and, of course, slower overall economic growth.
It wasn’t much more than a week ago that CBA, Australia’s biggest bank, was worth $105 a share.
Today it closed at $91.20, denting the values of many a superfund that holds it.
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Federal MPs and public officer holders to receive 2.75% pay rise
Federal MPs and public office holders have been granted a 2.75% pay increase from 1 July, with a backbencher set to receive a base salary of $217,060.
The remuneration tribunal, which independently sets the pay of statutory officers and other public officials, ordered the 2.75% pay increase.
It’s an improvement on last year – when no increase was ordered – but still a distance short of inflation, which was already 5.1% in headline terms or 3.7% in underlying terms at the time of the last budget. It has only increased since then, and that means pollies (like many others) have suffered a real pay cut.
In its decision on MPs’ pay, the tribunal said:
While the work performed by the wide variety of offices in the tribunal’s jurisdiction, including members of parliament, is diverse and unique, the tribunal is conscious of ensuring that relativities within the group of offices for which it determines remuneration remain consistent.
Consistent with previous decisions the tribunal maintains the view that the pay of parliamentarians should increase relative to that of other public office holders, and thus the decision to determine an adjustment for the office holders in the tribunal’s jurisdiction generally will also apply to parliamentarians.
For the approximately 2.7 million Australians whose pay is set by the national minimum wage (currently $20.33 an hour) or related award minimums, the Fair Work Commission will announce its decision at 10am on Wednesday.
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This is pretty opaque if you’re not part of the energy cognoscenti, but Peter Hannam (who most assuredly is), tells me this is a “warning shot” ...
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Big energy users in Queensland and NSW to cut down use as Aemo warns of energy supply gaps
The Australian Energy Market Operator has several tricks up its regulatory sleeves when it comes to ensuring we don’t get blackouts in a tight market.
One is the daintily named Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (or Rert, NOT Rort), which is a pre-arranged list of big energy users that agree to reduce load in a power pinch – and collect some payment for helping out.
Yesterday, the Rert was activated for Queensland and it’s been done again, for most of the rest of today. Interestingly, the same request is being made in NSW for about the same period.
We learned yesterday that Rio Tinto’s Boyne Smelter was not part of the scheme, but we have to assume other big power users will be.
Some, of course, can’t turn off the power for too long – such as aluminium* smelters, as their potlines turn solid after a couple of hours and are then useless.
(*Not to be confused with aluminum, which is the Yanks’ accidental typo, when Alcoa lodged its company name and left out the ‘i’ by mistake.)
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That is a cracking headline ...
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Energy ministers trade barbs as WA announces state-owned coal power plants to shut
There’s a national cabinet planned for Friday, and you can be certain that energy will feature highly, for reasons that may be more acute by week’s end.
Aside from blaming the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison government, the Albanese government will need to come up with more of the “way forward”.
Part of that may be the Transition Plan, or even gas storage options floated by the energy minister, Chris Bowen, after energy ministers had their first post-election gathering last week. (It wasn’t the “emergency” meeting as some described.)
To make up for the lack of federal Labor v Coalition stoush at the cabinet meeting, the various states might bring a bit of their own banter to the table.
On Tuesday, NSW energy minister, Matt Kean, seemed to be laying at least some of the blame for the current electricity squeeze on the neighbours to the north.
“Obviously, there’s been some big challenges in Queensland,” Kean told reporters including Guardian Australia’s own Tamsin Rose.
“They’ve had an unusually cold winter and a number of the big generators have gone out of the system. That’s putting increasing pressure on the NSW generators.”
Not surprisingly, his Queensland counterpart, Mick de Brenni, was not overly impressed.
“Queensland has been doing the heavy lifting for the entire east coast, whether it’s on supplying gas to NSW and Victoria, to opening up more gas fields for exploration,” de Brenni told journalists.
(After that riposte, de Brenni wanted to “reassure all Queenslanders that the system is operating ... We don’t expect there to be widespread outages.”)
Meanwhile, Victoria’s power pinch is forecast for tomorrow evening at this stage.
In news to darken the soul of Queensland senator and wannabe coalminer Matt Canavan, Western Australia has joined the rush to dump the fossil fuel from its electricity sector.
According to the ABC, the McGowan Labor government will exit coal in its grid before 2030 and pour billions of dollars into renewable energy.
In a “landmark announcement” this afternoon, the premier, Mark McGowan, and energy minister, Bill Johnston, said state-owned power provider Synergy would shut its remaining coal-fired plants by 2029.
Synergy currently owns and runs two coal-fired power stations, the 854Mw Muja plant and the 340Mw Collie plant, both near Collie some 200km south of Perth, ABC said.
Something else to chew over at the national cabinet gathering this week.
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Tasmanian Greens leader tables petition calling on government to end subsidies for greyhound racing
The Greens leader in Tasmania, Cassy O’Connor, has tabled a petition in that state’s parliament calling for an end to government subsidies for the greyhound industry.
It was a great honour to table a record-breaking petition condemning the brutal greyhound racing industry in parliament today. This is an industry that wouldn’t survive without tens of millions in taxpayer money.
More than 13,500 Tasmanians signed the e-petition to end the subsidies to greyhound racing – making it the biggest e-petition in Tasmanian parliamentary history. The public know this industry has cruelty at its core and want no part in paying for it.
The momentum to end the cruelty of greyhound racing is gathering as the industry continues to lose its social license.
Tasmanians have spoken, and the Rockliff government is on notice. This industry, that breeds dogs to die or cast aside when they don’t run fast enough, has had its time.
The Coalition for the Protection of Greyhounds – which is backing the petition – has detailed 64 deaths of greyhounds on Australian racing tracks this year, and 4573 injuries. There were 213 greyhound deaths from racing in 2021.
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Judge rebukes Pauline Hanson staffer James Ashby for being ‘evasive’ during defamation trial
Senator Brian Burston was alleged to have been a “serial text pest” and worse (read on)...
Guardian reporter Michael McGowan has filed from the federal court on Burston’s defamation case against his former boss, Pauline Hanson.
Hanson’s staffer James Ashby was accused by a judge of being “evasive” in his evidence.
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The disgraced Hey Dad! actor and convicted child sexual offender Robert Hughes has been released from Sydney’s Long Bay jail and is expected to be deported immediately to the UK.
Market operator warns of energy shortages across five states from this afternoon
There’s still a flurry of notices from the Australian Energy Market Operator this afternoon, as the electrons flow around the national electricity market. (Note SA is still paying users to take its power.)
The market, though, remains tight, with a total of five “lack of reserve – level 3” notices issued for NSW for later today and into Wednesday. Each has a possible shortfall of supply.
Tasmania, meanwhile, has joined its mainland counterparts in facing a supply gap within the next day or so.
It’s the only one of the five states without a price cap imposed by Aemo (though at the $15,100/megawatt-hour maximum rate it was charging for its power earlier today, it might not be long before it joins the others with a forced $300/Mwh limit).
Another long evening ahead for regulators (and bloggers).
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Far-right extremism less closely monitored amid focus on Islamist extremism, Victorian inquiry hears
From Callum Godde in Melbourne for AAP:
A “myopic” focus on Islamist extremism in Australia since 2001’s September 11 attacks in the United States has come at the expense of monitoring the far-right movement, a Victorian parliamentary inquiry has been told.
Liberty Victoria president, Michael Stanton, has acknowledged the recent emergence of far-right extremism in the state, citing neo-Nazis gathering in the Grampians and gallows erected outside state parliament as pandemic legislation was debated last year.
He told an inquiry on Tuesday that far-right extremism is real, but argued Victorian politicians need to be careful not to blindly expand executive powers, surveillance and censorship to combat its influence.
“We need to make sure that in responding to those confronting scenes in the Grampians – whether it be Nazi salutes or display of the swastika – or the erection of gallows outside parliament, that we do not have a legislative response that throws the baby out with the bathwater,” Stanton said.
“Sometimes that involves tolerating speech that we find offensive or humiliating.”
The barrister said Australian law enforcement agencies’ focus has been drawn away from neo-Nazis and other far-right movements over the past 20 years by Islamist extremism.
Both must be addressed, Stanton said, but Victoria’s parliament should not cast the net too wide with any reforms.
“The focus should be on those people who are directly likely to be engaged in committing violent acts,” he said.
“To cast their net more broadly risks increasing stigmatisation – the kind of stigmatisation faced by the Muslim community, or parts of the Muslim community, in Australia for almost two decades – and risks being counterproductive.”
As well as investigating the rise of far-right extremism in Victoria, the inquiry is studying how the Covid-19 pandemic has affected its apparent growth.
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Key event
Col Blanch to be appointed WA police commissioner
Current deputy police commissioner in the Western Australian police force, Col Blanch, will become the force’s new commissioner next month.
Blanch, who has overseen key portfolios including gang crime, homicide, organised crime, and state intelligence, has been appointed for a five-year term.
Blanch became, briefly, a household name last year as the public face of the WA police force’s search for missing girl Cleo Smith, who was found, safe and well, 18 days after she vanished from a remote camping site.
“We have all had tears in our eyes this morning,” he said of the early morning rescue of the girl.
Blanch is also a former executive director of intelligence for the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission, and chair of the WA State Emergency Coordination Group.
WA premier, Mark McGowan, said Blanch was an outstanding candidate.
“Col Blanch has proven himself a leader of integrity who cares deeply about safety of the community and those serving under his command,” McGowan said.
“Mr Blanch has been directly involved in shepherding the state through the pandemic and he is well-placed to lead the Western Australian Police Force as it confronts challenges of the post-pandemic world.”
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And now Victoria ...
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Experts urge ‘careful consideration’ in designing Australian centre for disease control after Labor’s election promise
Before its election win, Labor had promised to set up an Australian Centre for Disease Control to help prepare for, and cope with, future pandemics and outbreaks.
Experts are now urging the government to carefully consider the body’s design prior to its establishment, warning there is a risk that the establishment of an Australian CDC may be “seen as a ‘quick win’” by the new government.
Three experts from the Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases at the University of Sydney, Prof Ben Marais, Prof Tania Sorrell and Prof Lyn Gilbert, say the Covid pandemic showed such a body was sorely needed to coordinate the national response, collate critical data, and conduct rapid research.
In a statement published Tuesday, they said:
Careful consideration and consultation are needed to establish this organisation as one that society can look to as a leader in preventing, preparing for and responding to disease outbreaks.
It needs to be an entity that can bring together the collective expertise of researchers, epidemiologists, public health microbiologists and practitioners, communications, infection prevention and control experts, and policy makers.
The three experts said questions remained about whether an Australian CDC should examine both infectious and non-communicable diseases, how it would be structured to avoid bias or perceptions of bias, and how it could create a national disease surveillance network across various jurisdictions.
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National Covid-19 update
Here are the latest coronavirus case numbers from around Australia on Tuesday, as the country records at least 31 deaths from Covid-19:
ACT
- Deaths: 0
- Cases: 633
- In hospital: 93 (with 3 people in ICU)
NSW
- Deaths: 3
- Cases: 5,157
- In hospital: 1,341 (with 39 people in ICU)
Northern Territory
- Deaths: 0
- Cases: 169
- In hospital: 22 (with 2 people in ICU)
Queensland
- Deaths: 6
- Cases: 4,190
- In hospital: 373 (with 8 people in ICU)
South Australia
- Deaths: 0
- Cases: 2,429
- In hospital: 226 (with 8 people in ICU)
Tasmania
- Deaths: 1
- Cases: 658
- In hospital: 45 (with 2 people in ICU)
Victoria
- Deaths: 15
- Cases: 6,071
- In hospital: 473 (with 28 people in ICU)
Western Australia
- Deaths: 6
- Cases: 6,315
- In hospital: 278 (with 12 people in ICU)
David Pocock thanks ‘a community I love’ after being elected to Senate for ACT
Climate change activist, independent candidate and former Wallabies captain David Pocock has been elected to the Senate as one of two upper house seats for the Australian Capital Territory.
He is the first independent candidate to win election as a territory senator. (The other ACT senator is the finance minister, Katy Gallagher, who was returned.)
Pocock received 21.18% of the primary vote. With preferences he achieved quota at the distribution of preferences on Tuesday.
Pocock thanked the ACT community for its support.
“Today, the extraordinary movement of people we brought together across the ACT made history,” Pocock said.
“For the first time, we have an independent voice representing our community in the federal parliament.
“Thank you to everyone who put their trust in me to represent you. It is an incredible honour to be able to serve a community I love.”
Pocock congratulated Gallagher on her re-election, and acknowledged the work of outgoing Liberal senator Zed Seselja, who had held the second ACT senate seat for nine years but lost out to Pocock in the final counting in this election.
Pocock said his campaign “aimed to make politics about people”.
“We built a policy platform off the back of thousands of conversations about the things that matter.
“We kept it positive. We talked about the issues and the ideas for the future we want and It clearly resonated.”
The AEC will officially declare the result tomorrow in Canberra.
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I told you he was inexhaustible ... (unlike east coast power supplies, it seems):
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Queensland at risk of power outages as Aemo forecasts evening energy shortfall
Afternoon fellow travellers. Thanks to the indefatigable Mostafa for his stellar first innings.
Speaking of inexhaustible: the latest dispatch (see what I did there ...) from our energetic energy correspondent Peter Hannam:
... So we have an updated view from the Australian energy market operator of the forecast electricity supply gap for Queensland.
It’s 1,789 megawatts (which looks revolutionary) at 6.30pm AEST this evening, and larger than the biggest projected shortfall yesterday at 1,454Mw. No wonder Aemo is looking for a response from generators.
At this size, you’d expect the Queensland government to again ask consumers to turn off unnecessary appliances, and big power users will probably be asked to do so too (and for some, they will be paid to do so).
There are other “lack of reserve” notices for other states including NSW at level 1 or 2, which are not as serious.
Some reputable commentators smell a rat, though, as there is ample capacity in the market even taking into account the increasingly unreliable coal-fired power plants in the national electricity market.
The Australian Energy Regulator, which is supposed to keep an eye on price gouging, says it is “monitoring the market closely”, as is the competition watchdog, the ACCC.
Whether anyone will get pinged for anti-competitive behaviour remains to be seen.
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And with that, I will leave the blog in the trusty hands of Ben Doherty. Thanks for reading.
Albanese suggests bosses go easy on Socceroos fans today
Earlier, prime minister Anthony Albanese was asked what is arguably the most important question of the day: will he give the nation a day off to celebrate the Socceroos?
Unfortunately, the PM could only offer some encouragement for bosses to go easy on employees today (booooooo):
If someone’s having a little kip in the corner, it’s understandable, because if they’ve been up since 4 o’clock watching … and then celebrating afterwards, it’s understandable that coffee can only go so far.
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NSW Liberal candidate calls for recount of Gilmore
The AEC is due to officially declare results in numerous House of Representatives seats today, but the result in the NSW seat of Gilmore has been delayed after Liberal candidate Andrew Constance called for a recount.
The former NSW state minister ended up just 373 votes behind Labor MP Fiona Phillips, according to the AEC’s official numbers, and the seat was to be declared officially at 2pm today.
But the AEC says that has been delayed after a formal request for a recount, which the electoral body says it will give “thorough consideration”.
Constance told Guardian Australia that his vote scrutineers had “raised concerns in relation to certain aspects of the process, particularly the scrutiny of informal votes”. Constance said he believed the close result meant there were “strong grounds for a recount”.
The AEC said its staff need time to assess the request, stressing that the delay of the declaration was not any indication of what decision it would make.
A spokesman noted the AEC’s validation processes for counting votes, including that ballots are counted more than once in a process called “fresh scrutiny”.
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Albanese says ‘all things are on the table’ for energy policy review
Earlier, Anthony Albanese was asked about the fact the energy minister, Chris Bowen, did not rule out price controls on gas in a morning interview.
Albanese said:
He didn’t speak about that at all, I’ve read the transcript, he was asked about that. It’s a different thing. With what Mr Bowen said in the interview ... is that all things are on the table. We’ve said we will have a review of the so-called trigger, which is in place.
The so-called trigger isn’t really a trigger at all because you pull the trigger and nothing happens until January 1. So what we will do and are doing as a matter of urgency is a review and all things are on the table.
Albanese also sounded off about the failures of the Morrison government on energy.
He said:
It’s not acceptable that we have had a government previously, which was in office for three terms, announced 22 different energy policies and didn’t land one – that is not acceptable.
You’ve had a decade of neglect ... you’ve had a decade where we have an energy grid that isn’t fit for purpose for the 21st century. You’ve had too many arguments taking place rather than the investment certainty which comes from having an energy policy ... And what we find is the consequences of the former government’s failure to put in place an energy policy is being felt right now, with problems in the market.
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Senate winners in NT announced as vote count ends
The Australian Electoral Commission has announced the count for senators in the Northern Territory has concluded, with Labor’s Malarndirri McCarthy and the Country Liberals’ Jacinta Nampijinpa Price successfully voted into the Senate.
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Albanese says China must remove trade sanctions to improve relationship
Anthony Albanese has been asked about China’s sanctions, after defence minister Richard Marles met his Chinese counterpart, ending several years of Australia being frozen out by Chinese ministers.
Albanese said:
Well it’s China that has imposed sanctions on Australia, they need to remove those sanctions in order to improve relations between Australia and China.
It’s a good thing that Richard Marles [was able to meet] with his counterpart on the sides of the conference in Singapore. We do need to engage with each other and that’s a positive step. But it’s China that has imposed sanctions, it’s China that has changed and it’s China that needs to remove those sanctions.
China needs to remove the sanctions they have put in place, there is no reason for them to be there. We are a trading nation, we have fulfilled all of our obligations as part of contracts and arrangements put in place, and we make good products as well. And those sanctions hurt Australia but they also hurt China, because of the quality of our products.
Albanese said dialogue had been “missing” in the last few years, but there need to be “concrete steps” from China. My colleague Daniel Hurst has reported similar demands from foreign minister, Penny Wong, to end trade sanctions.
Albanese also confirmed he has written back to China after premier, Li Keqiang, sent him a “congratulatory message”, but would not comment beyond saying he “responded appropriately”.
“There have been prime ministers who reveal text messages and correspondence - I’m not one of them,” he said.
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Albanese questioned on reducing deportations of New Zealanders convicted of crimes
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, is holding a press conference in Brisbane with the aged care minister Anika Wells.
Albanese was asked about his talks with New Zealand prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, about reducing deportations of New Zealanders convicted of crimes in Australia.
He said:
I’ve said that section 501 will stay in place. What we’ll have discussions over though is how that framework operates in a sensible way, in the context as well [that] New Zealand has agreed, of course, to take some people who are currently on Nauru, and we’ll have those discussions in the context as well and of how we smooth out the path to citizenship for people from New Zealand, which is a substantial number right here in Australia.
Fascinating that he made a link between reducing deportations and New Zealand agreeing to take asylum seekers and refugees from offshore detention.
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Tasmania records 658 new Covid cases
And Tasmania has also reported their Covid numbers, with 658 new cases overnight. There are currently two patients in ICU and 3,645 total active cases.
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NT records 169 new Covid cases
The Northern Territory has recorded 169 new Covid cases overnight, with 22 patients currently in hospital, three of whom require oxygen.
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ACT records 633 new Covid cases
WA records 6,315 new Covid cases and six deaths
Western Australia is reporting 6,315 new Covid cases and six deaths overnight. There are 278 people with Covid in hospital in the state, with 12 of them in intensive care.
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Business confidence retreats as Australian stocks plunge
Australian stocks seem to have plateaued for now, down just a tad less than 5%, pretty much how far they plunged at the open.
There are more details here on that fall, which wiped off more than $110bn in share value:
Eventually the effects of financial markets do affect the “real economy” but the daily gyrations can sometimes be misleading (and are bad for blood pressure, and so on).
So what’s the real world look like?
NAB’s monthly survey of business confidence and conditions finds some retreat but forward orders are keeping both relatively buoyant.
Overall conditions remain “well above average”at +16 points, NAB says.
That sentiment is patchy, though, with confidence dipping in South Australia and Victoria, but improving in Queensland.
Some industries, though, such as construction are not doing very well, profit-wise, even if their order books are generally full. “No other industry is facing such margin pressure,” NAB said.
The signs are mixed too for inflation. On the one hand, labour costs were up 2.5% in May, easing from the record 3.0% rise in April, while the cost of finished goods rose 1.8% and retail price growth came in at 3.1% on a quarterly basis, NAB said.
By that score, real wages are looking like they might still be going backwards.
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Queensland records 4,190 new Covid cases and six deaths
Queensland has recorded 4,190 new Covid cases and six deaths. There are currently 373 with the virus in hospital in the state, with eight of them in ICU.
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Public hearings begin into far-right extremism in Victoria
A Victorian parliamentary inquiry investigating the rising threat of far-right extremism has begun holding public hearings today.
Liberty Victoria president, Michael Stanton, tells the inquiry it is vital a legislative response does not “throw the baby out with the bath water” to ensure free speech is balanced with people’s right to live without discrimination and violence:
Sometimes that involves tolerating things that we find offensive or humiliating, and I’m reminded of John Howard, who famously of course introduced gun control but also strongly opposed flag burning becoming a criminal offence, despite pressure from his own backbench.
The inquiry, announced in February after a push from the Greens, comes amid a recent emergence of extremist and neo-Nazi groups into public view.
Last month, Victoria introduced landmark legislation that would see the state become the first jurisdictions in Australia to ban the Nazi swastika.
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Aemo says it might need to intervene in SA amid energy shortage but solar helping
Eastern Australia’s energy market continues to be busy, with the Australian Energy Market Operator signalling it may have to intervene in South Australia if more supply isn’t forthcoming.
At the moment, wind and solar are supplying almost 90% of that’s state’s needs, and SA is busily exporting to Victoria (SA’s spot wholesale price is negative-$1 per megawatt hour, compared with $200-$300 in other parts of the national electricity market).
So the intervention will likely be for system security with more “synchronous generating units” needed.
Meanwhile, there have been a couple of actual lack of reserve notices in NSW and Queensland where the available extra capacity has been lower than desired but without supply gaps looming.
The sunny days across most of eastern Australia (long may they last after the rains) mean there’s a decent amount of solar energy being generated even though we’re in winter. At the moment, about a quarter of supplies are coming from solar farms and rooftops.
Short of some surprises, then, the main focus of regulators (and nervous energy ministers) will be what happens as the sun sets. Blackouts, though, remain unlikely but can’t be ruled out.
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New Zealand school in lockdown after reports of active shooter
Police in the the town of Taupiri on New Zealand’s north island are responding to reports of an active shooter.
AAP reports that a person was injured about 9.30am while a nearby school was in lockdown as a precaution.
Police were responding to a “serious incident” in Taupiri, south of Auckland, on Tuesday morning.
Local media are reporting that an active shooter was in the Taupiri area.
A large number of police remain at the scene.
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Energy regulator warns of possible blackouts in NSW and Queensland
Earlier today, Australia’s energy regulator, the Australian Electricity Market Operator (Aemo), warned that blackouts could still be possible in NSW and Queensland, between 5pm and 9pm tonight.
Aemo said in a statement that it has issued notices to encourage more power generation, and that if those measures aren’t sufficient some areas may face blackouts.
The market operators also said price caps were in place in Queensland, NSW, Victoria and South Australia because wholesale prices have breached a threshold.
As a consequence, some generators revised their market availability in New South Wales and Queensland for today.
This has contributed to forecast supply shortfalls, along with generation units being offline for planned maintenance and repairs.
Supply reserve shortfalls (lack of reserve 2 and 3) are currently forecast in Queensland and New South Wales this evening (approximately 5pm to 9pm).
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AustralianSuper cuts weekly admin fee but raises annual fee for contributors
The nation’s biggest superannuation fund has cut administration fees that it charges most members – but some will see their fees rise.
AustralianSuper, which manages about $261bn of retirement savings on behalf of 2.7 million members, will cut its weekly account-keeping fee from $2.25 to $1.
However, it is also increasing the annual fee it charges people who are still contributing to their super, which is based on the size of your retirement account, from 0.04% to 0.1%.
Total fees for people accumulating savings will be capped at $350 a year.
For people who are retired and drawing down on their fund, the variable fee will go down from the current 0.11% to 0.1%, and the total fee will be capped at $600 a year – down from the current cap of $750 a year.
Aussie says that the result will benefit people with less in their super – those with a balance below $50,000 will pay almost 60% less in administration fees.
The average fee decrease for people who are retired and drawing down on their super will be 25%, the fund says.
In all, about 2.3 million members will either enjoy a decrease or see fees remain the same; it’s estimated about 300,000 to 400,000 members with larger balances will see fees increase.
The fund says insurance costs for about 1.13 million members will decrease this year. It has also spent considerable effort bringing investment managers in-house, rather than employing expensive external advisors – something it says has saved members $1bn over eight years and slashed investment fees for members in its main balanced option from a high of 0.84% in 2009 to 0.63% last year.
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We are expecting to hear from Anthony Albanese in Brisbane shortly.
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ACT Liberal leader congratulates new senators but doesn’t mention outgoing colleague
The Liberal leader in the ACT, Elizabeth Lee, has taken to Twitter to congratulate new Canberran senators Katy Gallagher and David Pocock.
Of note here is the complete lack of mention of former Liberal senator Zed Seselja.
Make of that what you will:
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Perrottet says NSW childcare package a 'once-in-a-generation reform'
The New South Wales premier Dominic Perrottet has just stepped up to discuss his government’s new childcare plan, saying the $775m commitment over the next four years is an “investment in our family, in our children”.
Perrottet says the cash injection will “drive women’s participation, provide great opportunities for families who are struggling with bouncing their work and family life struggle”.
This is a once-in-a-generation reform.
We know this is an area that has been put in the too hard basket for way too long.
This investment today will increase places right across our state, over time and over the next decade ensure prices also come down – a saving of around $4,000 for those families with one child and close to $8,000 for those families who use child care and have two children.
It is nation-leading reform that we would expect other states to follow suit. This is something from a commonwealth level hasn’t had the traction that it needs. It has put many women in a position where they are not able to make that choice, they are not able to stay in the work place and this is something that will drive economic activity of around $17bn a year.
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Pocock on being a senator: ‘I am committed to being accountable and accessible’
And here is David Pocock’s statement on his election win, thanking everyone who put their trust in him, and reiterating his campaign’s focus on making politics about people:
Our campaign aimed to make politics about people. We built a policy platform off the back of thousands of conversations about the things that matter.
I am committed to being accessible and accountable to Canberrans. I’d love you to come to my first quarterly town hall in July to continue the conversation.
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ASX plunges on open
The big falls on overseas financial markets have been echoed in Australia, where the stock market was already playing catch-up after Monday’s holiday close.
Within a few minutes of opening, the ASX 200 benchmark index was more than 5% down, with all major sub-indices lower.
The drop was not a surprise given the steep falls in the US, including 4.7% for the tech-concentrated Nasdaq index overnight.
The main concern for investors is that the spike in inflation continues to be worse than feared, which will prompt central banks to send interest rates higher, faster.
The US Federal Reserve, for instance, is now expected to lift its key rate by 0.75 percentage points later this week.
The S&P 500, a broad measure of US stocks, is down 9% in just three days, Bloomberg notes.
The Aussie dollar has also lost ground lately, trading at about 69.5 US cents in recent trade, down from 72 cents last week.
No doubt more to come.
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Pocock, Gallagher officially elected to the Senate
It’s now official – former rugby union star David Pocock is a senator. The independent candidate has been officially elected to the federal Senate in the Australian Capital Territory, the Australian Electoral Commission announced on Tuesday.
He will join Labor’s finance minister, Katy Gallagher, as the ACT’s two upper-house representatives, while former Liberal senator Zed Seselja will miss out.
It’s now been more than three weeks since the May 21 election date, but the complicated process of distributing Senate preferences – about 115m preferences nationally, the AEC said – means it takes far longer to officially name upper-house results than those in the House of Representatives.
On Tuesday, the AEC named Gallagher and Pocock as the two senators for the ACT, after preferences were distributed.
“As with all aspects of the count, the automated distribution of preferences undertaken today was open to scrutineers appointed by the candidates,” said Australian Electoral Officer for the Australian Capital Territory, David Molnar.
The Northern Territory’s Senate spots will be revealed later today. The rest of Australia’s Senate composition will be notified “soon”, the AEC said.
The electoral commission said on Twitter that the Senate result was “one of the most complex upper house counts in the world – it’s so complex that we needed to write a program to distribute your preferences, as doing it by hand would mean we couldn’t provide elected Senators in time to take their seat.”
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The ASX is following Wall Street into a tumble:
You can read more on the story at the link below:
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Bowen says export and price control needs to go through parliament
I wanted to return to Chris Bowen, who also made the media rounds this morning.
He told RN Breakfast that there is a chance the government will seek to implement a 90-day temporary export and price control, to deal with the energy crisis. But he also warned the government does not have a “legislative basis” to introduce short term reforms.
But we would need to take that through parliament, there’s no legislative basis at the moment.
One thing this government will not do is … respond with an ad hoc reaction … we’ve had enough knee-jerk reactions.
There are real challenges, when we have a reform process we will explain it, we’ll take it through parliament and we will seek it.
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Marles says 'door is open' to further meetings with China
Deputy PM Richard Marles made the rounds this morning, speaking from Tokyo and saying that he intends to build stronger relationships with Japan, while being open to further meetings with China.
It comes after Beijing ended its diplomatic freeze of Australia, and a breakthrough meeting in Singapore, where “full and frank” discussions were had on tensions in the Pacific and South China Sea.
Speaking to the ABC, Marles said he had wanted to ensure the “relationship was put in a better place”:
There was a desire in the meeting that we had, on both sides, to have the relationship put in a better place.
The door is open to having further meetings, but I think we do need to understand that the relationship has not been in a good place at all, and this is only the first step and there’s still a long way to go.
We want to assert our rights in places like the South China Sea; we see the importance of a global, rules-based order in the Pacific.
We’re going to go about our relations with China, but our relations with the whole world in a way which is professional, where we understand the importance of dialogue where we believe in the power of diplomacy.
Marles also appeared on the Today Show, emphasising his intention to build stronger military ties between Australia and Japan:
We’re not going to be looking to other countries in terms of influencing the relationships that we build with friends like Japan.
So we’re building this relationship with Japan on its own terms and it’s never been more important. China is seeking to shape the world around it in a way that it has not done before. That makes our strategic circumstances complex.
Both Japan and Australia are allies of the United States. We both have an interest in keeping the United States as engaged as possible within East Asia.
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Dan Tehan wants parliament to return
Dan Tehan, opposition immigration spokesman, says the government should bring forward its first sitting date to deal with the energy crisis, and accusing Labor of trying to avoid scrutiny.
This, of course, comes only months after the Coalition had laid out a schedule with only 10 (that’s right, 10) sitting days before August 2022.
Tehan was on Sky News this morning, and said he wanted to hold the government accountable early (obviously there’s much more energy when in opposition):
The parliament is the place where we are able to hold the government to account, we’ve got an energy crisis and a skills crisis and we’re not sitting until the end of July, why?
I’m incredibly surprised, this was a government that said accountability and transparency will be at the forefront of everything they do.
It’s right to say the government should think about pulling this trigger, if we can’t get the gas at the right price to our manufacturing industries in particular, we’re going to see dire consequences as a result.
These are the types of questions we should be able to put to the parliament when the parliament sits.
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Victoria reports 15 Covid deaths and 6,071 new cases
A spike in deaths in Victoria today, with 15 reported in addition to 6,071 new cases:
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NSW records 5,157 new Covid cases and 3 deaths
NSW is reporting 5,157 new cases and three deaths overnight:
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NSW childcare package
Childcare in New South Wales will be bolstered with a $5bn package over the next decade as part of a state government plan to boost female participation in the workforce.
It was hoped the policy would create an extra 47,000 places across the state, enable private childcare operators to expand or build new centres and increase the workforce, including through university scholarships for early childhood teachers.
Announcing the policy at a Committee for Sydney event on Tuesday morning, the treasurer, Matt Kean, said the investment was good economic policy for everyone, not just women.
He said:
Childcare should not be a postcode lottery. This reform will transform childcare in NSW. Good women’s policy is also good economic policy for everyone.
Kean said the loss of female voters for the federal Liberals at the May election was devastating and that he would work to support women in NSW. He said:
I was devastated by that because my party should be the standard-bearer for individual liberty that makes our country great.
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Energy minister says Australia in for 'bumpy' winter
The federal energy minister, Chris Bowen, has said Australia is facing a “bumpy” winter as energy shortfalls bite across the east coast.
Bowen was on Sunrise this morning, and said that while there was increased strain on the energy system, he remained confident the situation could be managed.
There is a big chunk of coal-fired power out of action in Queensland. That has led to higher prices, and … with the situation in Ukraine, flooding and it being a bit colder earlier than normal, that has increased the load on the system.
It’s all being actively managed. We can have confidence in our operators, regulators who are working together with the states.
I believe that will result in a better situation for energy consumers and avoid blackouts and certainly minimise the risk of any load shedding activities.
The operator tells me there is no need to be concerned about blackouts in the immediate future.
I’m not here to give a magical guarantee, but I am here to say that everything that could be done is being done very actively.
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Calls for a public holiday to celebrate Socceroos win
Socceroos coach Graham Arnold has asked the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, to declare a public holiday in celebration of Australia’s qualification for the Fifa World Cup – and he’s already got one high-profile political supporter in federal energy and climate minister Chris Bowen.
“A four-day weekend to celebrate the Socceroos win, is something I think we can all get behind,” Bowen told Radio National this morning.
“There’s a prime ministerial tradition isn’t there – any boss who sacks their worker for turning up late today is a bum, that’s what the prime minister should say on a day like this, we can all agree.”
Bowen was of course referencing former PM Bob Hawke’s immortal declaration after Australia’s 1983 America’s Cup win. We’re not sure if we’ll see Albanese in front of the cameras in a special white jacket adorned with AUSTRALIA, though. The current PM has only tweeted a simple congratulations (so far) to mark the Socceroos win.
“We’re very proud of them, a great day for Australia,” Bowen continued on RN.
Other politicians got on the Socceroos bandwagon, with a bunch of Labor MPs getting up early to live-tweet much of the game.
Labor senator Nita Green joked Australia was “going to be late for work” after the early morning start.
Minister for Sport, Anika Wells, was getting behind new national hero, Andrew Redmayne, who made the ultimate penalty save to seal the Socceroos win.
New MP for Bennelong, Jerome Laxale, asked Albanese for “permission to do the Redmayne dance in question time”.
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Lack of reserve notice from energy regulator
It’s going to be a long day by the looks of it when it comes to “lack of reserve” notices and intervention by the Australian Energy Market Operator, such as this early one in NSW:
As mentioned in this article, the price caps result in a lot of generators dropping out, and then the regulators are going to have to ask them to jump back in. Seems like an odd way to run things, but Chris Bowen, the federal energy minister, says that’s the market we have to work with.
(Cue: perhaps we need to review how the market operates.)
As for the mix of what’s in the market overnight, and at the start of the day across the National Electricity Market (NEM), here’s the scene:
The NEM, of course, is really only the eastern states and most of South Australia. Western Australia operates its own grids. Still that’s about 80% of the population, and hence, I suppose, the “national” tag still works.
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Theft on a large scale
In a very interesting story this morning, Western Australia Police are appealing to the public for information on a burglary from December, where three people stole a sea container with approximately $100,000 worth of mining equipment inside it.
Police say two men and a woman gained entry to into a commercial yard on Wellard Street in Bibra Lake on 28 December, and used a sea container handler to load a 6-metre (!!) sea container onto a truck (that they also stole in August 2021).
It is believed the truck used to transport the sea container was stolen from a commercial yard in Naval Base in August 2021. The truck was later found burnt out on a rural property in Oldbury on Wednesday 8 June 2022.
Anyone with information is asked to contact Crime Stoppers on 1800 333 000 or report online at crimestopperswa.com.au
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Robert Hughes due to be deported
Convicted paedophile and former star of Hey Dad! Robert Hughes, is set to be deported to the UK today.
Hughes was granted parole earlier this month by the NSW State Parole Authority, which determined he be released from Long Bay correctional facility no later than Tuesday.
The 73-year-old renounced his Australian citizenship in 2020, becoming a non-lawful citizen requiring deportation upon release.
Australian Border Force, who usually handles the deportation of convicted criminals who are not Australian citizens, told AAP it does not comment on operational matters.
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World Cup joy
Between politicians discussing energy and childcare, we still had the joy of the Socceroos winning their World Cup qualifier this morning, and I felt the ABC’s Tony Armstrong captured the mood pretty perfectly:
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Shorten calls for less 'argy-bargy' from opposition on energy crisis
Next off the bench is government services and NDIS minister (and former Labor leader) Bill Shorten, who is blaming the cold for the energy shortfall in NSW and Queensland.
Speaking to the Today Show, Shorten also added that “dispatchable power” was essential to combating the energy crisis. He also urged the opposition to join Laor in ending the “energy market operator wars.”
The very cold weather, combined with let’s face it, 10 years of delay and denial about investing in our energy market operator grid, and the chickens have come to roost.
You need what’s called dispatchable power. That’s power that you don’t need to be paying for seven days, 24 hours a week but when it’s really cold, that’s when you need it.
(Australians) want to hear that the government and opposition are working together. The truth is we need more dispatchable power (and) renewable energy is cheaper.
Let’s move forward. Less of the argy-bargy and more of the action.
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Matt Kean on NSW’s $5bn childcare package
Kean has gone on to spruik the state government’s new $5bn childcare policy, which he says will grow the state’s economy by $17.4bn.
What it will do is see up to 95,000 women be able to enter the workforce or take on more hours. I mean, childcare costs are attacks on the dreams of women and families right across New South Wales, indeed right across the country.
We believe that families should have access to quality affordable childcare no matter where they live ... And these reforms will deliver a middle-income family in New South Wales who have one child full-time care savings of up to $3,900 per annum.
When asked if the state was stepping in to fill a role usually reserved for the federal government, Kean avoided the question:
This is one of the biggest productivity reforms that we can have that will grow our economy. And obviously lift living standards in this state.
Our policy is focused on providing additional childcare – accessible and affordable childcare across New South Wales – will grow the overall size of the economy by $17.4 billion.
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NSW treasurer says he is confident in 'reliability' of energy system
NSW treasurer Matt Kean says he has confidence in the “reliability of the system,” indicating he is not expecting any blackouts in the coming days.
Speaking to Patricia Karvelas on RN Breakfast, Kean said the government was monitoring the situation, but asked people to be conscious of their power usage.
We’re obviously monitoring the situation very closely. But this situation has arisen because the wholesale prices of electricity have gone above a point which triggers the market cap. That cap is in place to protect consumers.
And because the price of electricity that the generators can get for supplying electricity into the market is too low to cover their costs, they’re not bidding into the system. So this is a market failure issue.
We’re not telling people to turn off the heaters, we’re not telling people to turn down their air conditioners or anything like that. But people should just be conscious that where they can reduce their use of electricity, that’s a good thing for them. It’s going to lower their power bills, and it’s also going to take a bit of pressure off the system.
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Socceroos qualify for the World Cup
Before we jump into the inevitable flow of politicians making the media rounds this morning, I wanted to point to Emma Kemp’s ongoing live blog of Australia’s World Cup qualifier.
Earlier this morning, Australia beat Peru on penalties to make their fifth consecutive World Cup:
You can also read the match report, linked here.
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Good morning
Good morning, and happy World Cup qualification day! Mostafa Rachwani with you this morning, to take you through the day’s news.
We begin in New South Wales, where energy authorities are on high alert for possible power shortfalls hitting homes and businesses tonight. It comes after Queensland only narrowly avoided blackouts last night, after the Australian Energy Market Operator worked to head off a gap projected at one stage to be 1,454 megawatts.
In federal politics, deputy prime minister Richard Marles will be in Tokyo today, maintaining the jet-setting ways of this new government. Marles will be calling for stronger military ties between Japan and Australia, emphasising the need to strengthen the relationship between the two countries.
Back in NSW, the state government there has unveiled its signature budget policy, which will allow private childcare operators to expand or build new centres, in the hopes of creating an extra 47,000 places across the state.
Finally, prime minister Anthony Albanese is considering whether to attend a NATO summit in Madrid at the end of the month, and to support the alliance toughening its stance against Russia.
There is still much going on, so let’s dive in.