What we learned – Wednesday 15 June
OK that was a big day – and we are going to put this blog to bed now. But before we go, let’s recap the big stories:
- The Australian Energy Market Operator suspended the spot market for electricity nationally for the first time, and New South Wales residents were asked to reduce power in the evening if safe.
- The RBA boss, Philip Lowe, announced inflation could hit 7%.
- Sarah Hanson-Young said Australia was being “held hostage’ by energy companies.
- Bill Shorten highlighted the wider economic benefits of NDIS.
- Derryn Hinch confirmed he will run for parliament in Victoria.
- Brisbane says it will increase council rates on short-stay rental properties to help address housing crisis.
- The Fair Work Commission ruled on 5.2% increase to minimum wage, which was welcomed by the ACTU secretary, Sally McManus, welcomed the increase while the chamber of commerce boss said wages should be flexible and “driven by the market”.
- Consumer sentiment plunged towards historic low, according to a Westpac survey.
- Blackstone’s takeover of Crown Resorts approved by federal court.
Thank you for spending today with us – we will be back again tomorrow!
Updated
Plans to rewild captive koalas in New South Wales
A new project aims to “rewild” captive koalas by gently releasing them into larger sanctuaries, AAP reports.
The plan is to house the endangered marsupials at a breeding site near a NSW national park before releasing them into a safe, 1,500-hectare wild sanctuary in the state’s north.
The goal is to equip the animals with the necessary skills to flourish in a wild environment – called “wild translocation”.
Conservation groups WildArk and Aussie Ark aim to launch the project in 2023 once facilities are built, predators and weeds are removed, and protective fencing is in place.
The organisations are partnering with ice-cream brands Connoisseur and NUII to realise the project.
The federal government in February uplisted the conservation status of koalas from vulnerable to endangered, as recommended by the Threatened Species Scientific Committee.
In May, the NSW government also listed koalas as endangered.
Updated
Victorian energy minister says state has sufficient reserves
After a big afternoon Peter Hannam has clocked off but he wanted me to share this last thought with you:
“If Vivid Sydney goes dark, what do you get? Livid Sydney?”
We also have a statement from the Victorian minister for energy, environment and climate change, Lily D’Ambrosio.
Aemo have advised that we continue to have sufficient energy reserves and that the suspension is to protect energy users and put certainty back into the market.
We have been engaging very regularly with Aemo and understood they were considering a range of options, including suspending the National Energy Market. It is disappointing that energy generators were potentially gaming the system and not utilising the options available to them – this behaviour is unacceptable and will be investigated.
We continue to push for reforms that put the needs of Victorians ahead of big company profits.
Victorian households and businesses continue to be in a better position than those in the other eastern states due to our nation leading investments in renewables. This investment is delivering cheaper energy prices for Victorian households and businesses, while we work towards net zero emissions by 2050.
Updated
Socceroos back on home soil
The Socceroos have landed back home after securing a place in the 2022 Qatar World Cup. Fans gathered at Sydney airport to welcome them:
At the Sydney International Airport waiting for the @Socceroos lads to come out after their great success in Doha. pic.twitter.com/UcClYi4lde
— Kevin Pollard (@football_roos) June 15, 2022
Updated
Consumer confidence lowest since pandemic peak
Consumer confidence has plunged as sharemarkets fall and the cost of living soars because of surging inflation and rising interest rates.
Updated
Victorian Greens convener criticised for past comments about trans people
The newly elected Victorian Greens convener, Linda Gale, co-authored a 2019 document which has been described as “inconsistent with Greens values”.
Senator Janet Rice says Gale’s position is “untenable” unless she distances herself from the comments that have been labelled transphobic.
Read the story here:
Updated
Greater gliders get new homes after fires
Greater gliders that lost their tree-trunk homes in the black summer bushfires have been given new hi-tech digs with great insulation, top-notch security and killer views, AAP reports.
The world’s largest gliding marsupial was already considered vulnerable to extinction before ferocious bushfires wiped out almost a third of its habitat.
Experts quickly realised they were facing a housing crisis, with the flames destroying mature, hollow trees the gliders use for shelter.
Their minds turned to nesting boxes as a stop-gap measure. But standard models with their thin walls and lack of thermal protection were unsuitable for gliders, which won’t eat if they get too hot.
That’s a recipe for death within days because gliders have low fat stores and rely on low-calorie eucalypt leaves for both food and water.
“They are just like us,” Dr Kara Youngentob, from the Australian National University, said. “We don’t feel like a big meal when we’re hot and neither do they. But their food isn’t full of energy and fat.
“They also get all of their water from their leaves. So when they’re not eating as much they get dehydrated.”
Updated
Sydney residents asked to reduce power usage
The NSW energy minister, Matt Kean, has called on residents in his state to reduce their power consumption this evening to help the grid cope with a lack of supply.
As it stands, the crunch time will come about 8.30pm, according to Aemo’s latest alert for NSW.
Updated forecast for NSW from @AEMO_Energy … pic.twitter.com/E3aRj0FPgi
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
If there is an opportunity to reduce their energy usage, like not using their dishwasher until they go to bed, that would help.
A number of coal-fired power stations that were expected to be working tonight have not come online, Kean said. Vivid will still go ahead, he said.
Earlier, Kean welcomed the decision to suspend the wholesale power market across the five eastern states and the ACT – the first time the proverbial plug has been pulled on the whole scheme.
This decision will help prevent energy companies from putting energy reliability at risk by unnecessarily withdrawing supply.
I expect power companies to do the right thing by their customers and the country.
We will continue to work closely with the federal government and other states as well as the independent market operator to navigate the situation in the Nem.
Updated
Updated forecast for NSW from @AEMO_Energy … pic.twitter.com/E3aRj0FPgi
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
Richard Marles to attend Commonwealth meeting in Rwanda
The deputy prime minister, Richard Marles, confirmed he would be representing Australia at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Rwanda next week.
He is also set to visit to India next week to reinforce ties with the country.
Updated
Anthony Albanese meets Nadesalingam family
On Twitter, the PM said he had met with the Nadesalingam family.
So lovely to meet with the Nadesalingam family today. They’re finally home, Tharnicaa and Kopika are going to school, and the Biloela community have welcomed back a much loved family. pic.twitter.com/eBS610f5Zf
— Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP) June 15, 2022
Updated
Richard Marles speaks of greater cooperation between Australia and Japan in the Pacific
The defence minister, Richard Marles, has also spoken about the potential for “greater cooperation between Australia and Japan in the Pacific”.
Marles said the issue came up during the meeting with Japan’s defence minister, Nobuo Kishi, in Tokyo today. Marles told reporters:
The Pacific is obviously a part of the world which is deeply critical for Australia, but it’s also a part of the world where Japan has had a long engagement. And I’ve seen that first-hand in the work that I’ve done in Pacific island countries. Japan’s reputation amongst Pacific Island countries for the provision of infrastructure is unsurpassed. They do a wonderful job.
Today, they [Japan] talked about doing more port visits to countries in the Pacific, including Solomon Islands. That’s a really important initiative that we welcome. And earlier this year, Australia and Japan worked together in terms of the provision of assistance to Tonga after the tsunami.
Asked about joint ventures on infrastructure in the Pacific, Marles said partnering with Japan was “fundamentally a good idea” and “the more we do that, the better”.
When we combine resources, we can do so much more. Japan acknowledges Australia’s proximity to the Pacific, the fact that the Pacific is an area where we seek to lead in the context of other countries’ engagement in the Pacific. We talk in terms of earning the right that we seek to do to be the natural partner of choice of the countries in the Pacific. Japan supports that and welcomes that. But there are things that Japan can do in the Pacific which greatly add to our joint capability and one of those is infrastructure.
Ahead of foreign minister Penny Wong’s visit to Honiara this Friday, Marles said the new Australian government wanted to send a message to Solomon Islands “that we intend to make the Pacific an absolute focus of our foreign policy”.
We want to revitalise our relationships in the Pacific – we are going to do the work.
Updated
Richard Marles asked about meeting with Chinese counterpart
The defence minister, Richard Marles, was also asked about his meeting on Sunday with his Chinese counterpart, Wei Fenghe, in Singapore and whether the trade tensions had been part of that discussion.
Marles confirmed that he had raised China’s security agreement with Solomon Islands in Sunday’s meeting.
Marles said there were other discussions that he would not disclose publicly, but added:
The meeting with Minister Wei began and more importantly ended with a desire on the part of both of us to try and put the bilateral relationship [between China and Australia] into a better place, not just in terms of the area of defence, but generally.
Marles reiterated that it was “only the first step” and there was “a long way to go”.
(The trade minister, Don Farrell, has not been able to secure a meeting with his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of a World Trade Organization conference in Geneva this week.)
Updated
Japan and Australia are the very best of friends, deputy PM says in Tokyo
Richard Marles has spoken to reporters in Tokyo. The defence minister and deputy prime minister said the relationship with Japan was “front and centre in terms of our national interests”.
He said today’s meeting with his counterpart, Nobuo Kishi, was “of real substance”. He said in the 1980s commerce was at the heart of the Australia-Japan relationship. That element remained, he said, but now the building of the defence and security relationship was “at the heart of the work we are doing together”.
Marles said the pair had used today’s meeting to “put the meat on the bones” of a defence deal – the reciprocal access agreement – that was reached under the former Morrison government. That agreement sets up a legal framework for their forces to train in each other’s territory:
It allows our defence forces to operate in each other’s countries and I think what we will see is more of that. We take this a step at a time.
Marles said that Japan would, for the first time, send aircraft to participate in the Royal Australian Air Force’s Exercise Pitch Black in August. He said that was “emblematic of the kind of activity that we can both engage in going forward”.
From the perspective of Australia, we obviously see Japan as being really important to our strategic future. But what’s been so gratifying about this visit is that that feeling is reciprocated. It’s very clear that from the perspective of Japan, they see their relationship with us in Australia as being one of the highest order. That presents such an enormous opportunity for us to take the relationship forward and we were very pleased to be able to take steps in doing that today.
This all comes days after Marles met with his Chinese counterpart, Wei Fenghe, in Singapore on Sunday, ending a diplomatic freeze of more than two years.
Marles’ trip to Japan appears to be designed, in part, to assert that Australia is not changing its fundamental foreign policy and defence settings.
Marles said:
It is really clear that when times are tough, friends come to the fore. And today, Japan and Australia are the very best of friends.
Updated
NSW treasurer Matt Kean to speak on electricity market
The NSW treasurer and energy minister, Matt Kean, will address the media at 5.15pm following the decision to suspend the electricity market. We will bring you that when it comes.
Updated
Union calls for review of ‘broken’ national electricity market
The Electrical Trades Union is calling for an independent review of the entire national electricity market (Nem) following the unprecedented decision by the Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo) to take over national energy supplies.
The union’s acting national secretary, Michael Wright, said:
The ETU has been sounding the alarm about the Nem for years. This vindicates our long-held concerns that the market is broken and beyond repair.
The experiment in synthetic markets, trying to deliver essential public services through profit-motivated, tax-avoiding multinational energy corporations, has failed shockingly.
Gas and coal companies prioritising the export market is just a symptom of a problem, not the cause. The cause is complete regulatory failure.
Prime minister Anthony Albanese and energy minister Chris Bowen now have a clear mandate to step in and order an urgent review of the entire national electricity market.
Even if Aemo’s unprecedented intervention gets us through this acute phase of the crisis, we cannot return to the status quo. There is a serious question of whether the Nem should ever be allowed to resume.
A national review must consider how to remove the dead wood of rampant financialisation and short-termism that now dominates the Nem, which is placing a huge brake on the energy sector’s capacity to improve productivity and efficiency.
Updated
AEC confirms South Australia Senate results
The Australian Electoral Commission has confirmed the Senate results in South Australia, with three Liberals, two Labor and one Greens senator elected.
The preferences have been distributed and the results are in for the South Australian Senate election. The following six individuals have been elected.
— AEC ✏️ (@AusElectoralCom) June 15, 2022
1. Simon Birmingham
2. Penny Wong
3. Andrew McLachlan
4. Don Farrell
5. Barbara Pocock
6. Kerrynne Liddle #auspol pic.twitter.com/s9sr3onxfu
As expected, Simon Birmingham, Andrew McLachlan and Kerrynne Liddle will represent the Liberals, with ministers Penny Wong and Don Farrell for the Labor government, and Barbara Pocock for the Greens.
The first five senators on the AEC list were all expected to be elected for some time, but the only possible wildcard was the small possibility of One Nation grabbing the final seat – but that went to Liddle and the Liberals.
It’s also now confirmed that former Senate powerbroker Nick Xenophon has again missed out, after another unsuccessful bid for office. You might remember he quit the Senate in 2017, in a bid to run for the South Australian state parliament, but that didn’t pan out. He announced a late bid to return to the federal Senate shortly before the election, but that too has now been confirmed as unsuccessful.
Xenophon congratulated the winners in a video posted to Twitter.
SA Senate results - 3 Libs, 2 Labor, 1 Green. Thanks to all who supported my run. pic.twitter.com/ejjwmAoqob
— Nick Xenophon (@Nick_Xenophon) June 15, 2022
Updated
Westerman says other states not affected by market suspension
Westerman is asked if any other states are facing blackouts – he says they are mainly worried about New South Wales.
Reporter: “Are there any other states that could be facing blackouts?”
What I’m saying is that in NSW in particular, we are concerned about the supply and demand balance for this evening, potentially tomorrow we would urge consumers in NSW only, to conserve energy where it is safe to do so. We are doing everything we can to make sure we have sufficient generation on tap to meet supply.
He said other factors adding to this include: “The effect of the international crisis on gas, coal, availability of coal plants.”
Reporter: “How... do we not get into this situation in the future?”
That is a question for policymakers. It is a policy question, what I’m focused on is making sure we have sufficient electricity to meet customer needs.
Updated
Westerman: market will restart when generators co-operate
Westerman says by suspending the market they are creating one simple place where generators can put all their availability and it can be dispatched in a methodical way.
We will restart the market once we are confident the market will co-operate. What we are doing today is suspending the market because we see it is impossible to operate the market under current circumstances, and we will reassess that every day.
Once we are confident we can operate it and not see generators withdrawing their availability then we will restart the market.
Updated
Westerman: electricity prices won’t rise as result of market suspension
A reporter has asked if prices will go up because of this – but Westerman says they won’t.
Under market suspension rules we have worked off a pricing schedule reflective of prices over a trailing period, generators will be receiving compensation based on prices over the past month. We will have to check that. So, it’s not true to say that prices would go up under this market suspension mechanism.
Updated
Westerman: NSW residents should conserve energy if safe to do so
Westerman is asked if Australians can use normal heating tonight – he said he is asking NSW residents to conserve their energy where it is safe to do so.
Reporter: “Is this the sign that the national electricity market is challenged?”
We are seeing very challenging times, right now we see the market is not able to deal with all the factors thrown at it, frankly those factors are quite extreme, ranging from generators that are both planned and unplanned outages, very high demand, a confluence of factors at hand.
Updated
Westerman: generators will have clear process to recover costs
Reporter: “Is this the best possible option?”
Westerman:
We have seen a large amount of generators pull availability from the electricity market facing higher cost, we have faced high demand profiles due to the cold weather, input costs have increased due to the international factors, we have had a few transmission line outages which has resulted in a price rise.
Reporter: “Will generators still be compensated?”
Westerman:
By suspending the market we are putting in a simple process to put in their input and have a clear process to recover their cost.
Updated
Aemo boss: first time national market has been suspended
Journalist: “How long do you envisage the suspension to last for?”
Westerman:
We will reinstate the market once we are confident we can operate it, we will reevaluate that on a daily basis.
He is asked how unprecedented this move is:
We suspended the market in Tasmania and South Australia last year so it is a process familiar to market participants. This is the first time it has been done nationally.
Updated
Market suspension best for consumers, Aemo says
Westerman says this will deliver the best outcome for Australian consumers.
The suspension of the market is a temporary measure and will be reviewed daily. We will return the market to its normal state once Aemo is confident that we can operate the market again and not see generators withdraw their availability.
Practically, this means we are creating one simple process where generators can put their availability and have a simple, clear process for them to recover their costs. Prior to suspending the market today, Aemo had issued over 5,000 megawatts of directions and that is roughly 20% of demand.
And it is simply not possible to operate the market in this way. These actions today, we are confident will deliver the best outcome for Australian consumers.
Updated
Aemo press conference on electricity market situation
Daniel Westerman says today, Aemo has suspended the national electricity market.
This decision was made because it was impossible to operate the system under current conditions while ensuring reliable, secure supply of electricity to Australian homes and businesses. By suspending the market, we are creating a simple process where Aemo has true visibility of which generators are available and when in advance, rather than relying on last minute interventions.
That visibility will help us to manage the system in real-time as well as to understand the balance of supply and demand in the period ahead. Despite this, conditions remain tight in the coming days, in particular in New South Wales where we would urge consumers to conserve energy where it is safe to do so.
Updated
We are going now to Adelaide where the chief executive of the Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo), Daniel Westerman, is speaking ...
Updated
Peter Dutton says Chris Bowen has to fix electricity problem ...
No word yet from the political leaders about the big energy story this afternoon. The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, and the energy minister, Chris Bowen, are in Gladstone. The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, who’s in Perth, has got to the microphone first.
“I worry it is going to be tough under Labor,” he says.
Dutton says the Coalition kept electricity prices low – but that was for about a two-year period, and they left most of the mess facing Albanese, it would seem.
“Bowen’s aged 20 years” since he’s been in the job, Dutton says. “Because he doesn’t know what to do.”
“This a problem of Chris Bowen’s making, and he’s got to fix it.”
That seems a tad tough on a minister who’s barely had a fortnight in the job, but there you go. As for energy, you can read more of our report here:
Even though the market has been suspended, we’re still getting updated lack of reserve notices, which is slightly confusing. Will they keep sending these, showing the forecast shortfall for New South Wales?
Although the market is suspended, here’s what @AEMO_Energy is saying about NSW shortfalls… pic.twitter.com/6Z9hzynKrh
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
Updated
We are expecting the press conference from Aemo any time now ...
Australia’s foreign affairs minister will meet the prime minister of Solomon Islands in Honiara on Friday, attempting to mend ties after the Pacific country signed a security agreement with China.
Trade minister wants free trade agreement with EU by end of year
The trade minister, Don Farrell, has spoken to Sky News from Geneva, where he has been attending a World Trade Organization conference.
Farrell hasn’t had the opportunity to meet his Chinese counterpart but reiterated that Australia would be happy to meet any time to discuss the removal of trade sanctions against Australian export sectors.
Farrell said he would meet the French trade minister later today – the latest sign of improving ties after the Aukus-fuelled rift under the former government. Farrell said he was hopeful for the early resumption of negotiations with the EU on a free trade agreement.
I’d like to think we could get a free trade agreement with the European Union by the end of the year.
Narrator voice: Farrell hereby joins the great tradition of politicians setting end-of-year deadlines for trade talks.
Farrell adds:
Relationships are being repaired, not just in Asia but right around the world with this new government.
Updated
Backing the wage rise shows Labor is on the side of workers at a time when many are doing it tough, writes Sarah Martin.
Electricity spot market suspension will bring stability, Aemo says
With the Australian Energy Market Operator now suspending the wholesale spot market, people will be wondering what it all means, and what comes next.
Firstly, Aemo will go into more detail in an hour’s time (so 4pm AEST), but basically the system of identifying market shortfalls had “become unsustainable”, a spokesperson said.
The spokesperson confirmed it was the first time the entire market had been suspended. It was not caused by a single event but rather a build-up over the past few days when an ever-growing number of forecast shortfalls were emerging.
The last main interruption was linked to the “SA black” event in 2016, when tornados knocked over key transmission lines and a bunch of windfarms exceeded their settings, and were turned off (but they were NOT the main problem).
Suspending the market does not mean we’re about to get blackouts.
“Hopefully, this [suspension] will bring more stability to operations,” the Aemo spokesperson said.
The planned meeting of regulators with generators did NOT go ahead as planned, the Australian Energy Regulator has just let know.
Aemo’s market suspension rendered such a meeting redundant, it seems.
Updated
Traditional owners attempting to block the construction of a nuclear waste dump in South Australia have told a court the federal government has already approved plans to begin earthworks, despite an active legal challenge.
We are expecting a press conference on the electricity market situation at 4pm AEST.
More detail from @AEMO_Energy on why they suspended the spot market... pic.twitter.com/BAO5MVDG3J
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
Updated
NSW disaster agencies defend flood response
New South Wales disaster management agencies have defended their rescue and recovery response to the record-breaking floods which claimed 13 lives earlier this year, AAP reports.
The NSW resilience commissioner, Shane Fitzsimmons, the State Emergency Service boss, Carlene York, and the Rural Fire Service commissioner, Rob Rogers, appeared on the final day of hearings before an upper house committee on Wednesday.
The inquiry is examining the authorities’ ability to save lives and property during the catastrophic floods and is separate to the government’s own investigation.
The committee chairman, Labor MP Walt Secord, said communities in the state’s north were angry that Resilience NSW had treated the “fourth worst natural disaster” in modern Australian history as a “nine-to-five job”.
But Fitzsimmons vigorously defended the agency’s conduct in reaching and supporting flood evacuees.
We’re not a 24-hour organisation. We don’t have thousands of personnel.
We’re active and engaged but we’re only a couple of hundred people.
We don’t have the scale or resourcing during the response phase of these events.
York said 13 lives were lost from late February until early April across the state, with the town of Lismore in the Northern Rivers region hit the hardest.
The SES was dispatched to more than 2,200 flood rescues and responded to in excess of 33,400 requests for help.
Updated
Minimum wage increase ‘pitiful’, Antipoverty Centre says
The Antipoverty Centre has released a statement in relation to the wage increase – saying the daily pay rise would not even cover the cost of iceberg lettuce.
Jay Coonan, an Antipoverty Centre spokesperson, said:
The Antipoverty Centre is relieved that some low paid workers will soon get a pay rise, many of whom do not earn enough to get above the poverty line. But $1 an hour is a pitiful increase that maintains the status quo and does not meaningfully improve lives – it won’t even buy an iceberg lettuce for a day’s work.
We are disturbed by the decision to delay the increase for workers in aviation, tourism and hospitality. There is no justification for prioritising businesses over the wellbeing of the workers they rely on.
Announcing the wages decision the Fair Work Commission president said ‘low paid workers are particularly vulnerable’ – so what does that make the five million people who rely on poverty-level Centrelink payments?
Our payments are becoming worth less with each day, and so far we’ve heard nothing but repeated commitments from the new government to keep it that way.
Updated
Aemo suspends spot market for electricity
After all those notices about shortfalls in the wholesale spot electricity market serving eastern Australia, it looks like the Australian Energy Market Operator has blown a whistle, and the game is suspended ...
Perhaps it was inevitable...but now the spot market for electricity for eastern Australian has been suspended by @AEMO_Energy . (H/T @dylanjmcconnell ) pic.twitter.com/LrpbvGDo48
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
Updated
Energy generators meet to discuss electricity market
Eastern Australia’s generators are sitting down with the members of the Energy Security Board to chat about how the electricity market is going.
They will no doubt be discussing why generators are withdrawing capacity and then being asked to supply it by the regulators. And presumably they will discuss how to avoid worrying the public about possible electricity supply shortfalls.
Take New South Wales, for instance, where the projected “lack of reserve level 3” (LOR 3) implies a lot of gaps need filling, particularly one at 8pm tomorrow evening with 4,000 megawatts needed. (At present, NSW as a whole is using about 6,100MW.)
Quite a lot of forecast shortfalls for NSW including a big one for Thursday night at over 4000 megawatts… pic.twitter.com/RHaqhkp06N
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
It can be hard to keep up, since Victoria also has a bunch of LOR 3s, including tomorrow at 6.30pm when 2,000MW of supply needs to be found.
These gaps are being closed, but sometimes the regulator has to intervene and tell a lucky generator it’s time to switch on, as happened earlier today in Victoria.
A reminder how tight the market is in eastern Australia… pic.twitter.com/oDCUrlXkOe
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
Queensland and South Australia have also been in the mix today as far as projected shortfalls. The SA premier, Peter Malinauskas, this morning told RN Breakfast the market was an “embarrassment”.
Given we might have a few weeks or longer to go before the supply risks subside, we might want to consider how the messaging can be tweaked. Otherwise we might not be ready when a real crisis looms ...
Queensland too has a bunch of forecast shortfalls…today and tomorrow… pic.twitter.com/zWSZl2M0KX
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
South Australia has its share of forecast shortfalls, including a biggish one tomorrow night, @AEMO_Energy says pic.twitter.com/9zD5TfWpex
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
Updated
Encrypted apps must be regulated to curb far-right extremism, inquiry told
From AAP:
The federal government needs to take action against encrypted messaging apps like Telegram to curb the rise of far-right extremism, a Victorian inquiry has been told.
Far-right extremists initially shared hateful content on mainstream sites like Facebook and Twitter but are increasingly being deplatformed, Swinburne University’s Dr Belinda Barnet told Wednesday’s hearing.
The groups are now moving to spaces like Telegram where they can share their ideas without censure or detection from the authorities, which is dangerous, Barnet said.
These apps are also allowing the far right to draw in people from the “fringes of society”, Swinburne University’s Associate Prof Christine Agius told the parliamentary inquiry.
They often share grievances around perceived entitlement – that society has changed too much, feminism has gone too far, and minority groups are taking what’s rightfully theirs.
Updated
Erickson: ‘There’s a lot to reflect on’ about the media during the campaign
Jumping back to the National Press Club, Erickson was asked about the media:
Erickson: "It would be a mistake for Labor/progressives to interpret difficult questions/hostile coverage as an expression of an anti-Labor perspective ... that is starting to creep into debate about the media".#auspol #npc
— Paul Karp (@Paul_Karp) June 15, 2022
Erickson: I agree with Mark McGowan's comments about how media pack engaged with Albanese and Morrison. Reminded me of 2020 covid pressers - people were quite shocked at inter-personal engagement, the way journalists spoke to political leaders. A signal to reflect upon. #npc
— Paul Karp (@Paul_Karp) June 15, 2022
Erickson: there were themes in questioning that weren't priorities for voters, a bit of groupthink. "There's a lot there to reflect on."#auspol #npc
— Paul Karp (@Paul_Karp) June 15, 2022
Updated
Joel Fitzgibbon appointed to forest industry board
From AAP:
Former Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon says the forest industry has a strong role to play in climate mitigation and jobs provision.
The former minister and MP for the New South Wales seat of Hunter has been appointed to the Australian Forest Products Association board as an independent non-executive director.
“As the former minister and shadow minister for forestry, I have met many of AFPA’s members and have seen firsthand the countless benefits the industry provides to Australia’s economy and the livelihoods of Australians,” he said in a statement on Wednesday.
“[The] industry is passionate about the role it can play in climate mitigation, building our regional communities by providing meaningful and secure jobs and delivering the millions of fibre-based products we often take for granted – from timber for houses, to paper and tissue products.
“I look forward to working with my board colleagues and AFPA management as we look to the future of forest industries.”
The AFPA chair, Greg McCormack, said Fitzgibbon would bring to the board passionate support for forest industries.
“[And he] understands intimately how we can assist the new Albanese government deliver both greater climate change initiatives and more timber for our builders and renovators,” McCormack said.
“Joel’s vast experience in both strategic vision and policy development will provide valuable input for the AFPA board and in dealings with all levels of the government and the public service as we all try to deliver on the more than $300m in new initiatives Labor committed to during the election, along with key policy changes.”
Updated
Labor not concerned about rise of independents and Greens, Erickson suggests
Paul Karp: “I note the seats that you had climate swings to you – Bennelong, Chisholm, Higgins and Boothby. Only one of them had a high-profile independent and none of them were top-tier Greens targets. So my question is: how worried are you that those will be the next to fall to a growing crossbench if Labor doesn’t lift its ambition on climate?”
Erickson:
I’m confident of the four members that were elected in those seats that they’ll do an excellent job over the next three years. I think if we look at the teal seats, the issues that were in play in those seats were the electorate’s dissatisfaction with Mr Morrison’s performance as prime minister, and anger at the Liberal party over climate, over the treatment of women and over integrity.
The 2022 election and the contest between the Liberals and the teals played out with those issues and on the terms that we saw. So I don’t think that you can extrapolate from that much, if anything, about what the next election might look like and what it means for the Labor government.
Erickson: Greens ‘seek to divide Labor’s base in a manner that doesn’t help progressive politics’
On the Greens, Erickson says:
I think there’s in doubt that the Greens are an effective campaign machine and they do have a very successful strategy that they have honed over 20 years, which is to always position yourself two steps to the left of Labor, minimise our successes, give zero credit for any of the progressive gains that Labor governments make, constantly criticise and seek to divide Labor’s base in a manner that doesn’t help progressive politics.
That’s what Adam’s entire adult life has been about.
Updated
Erickson: ‘The test is not whether you can run a mistake-free campaign. The test is how do you respond when new challenges emerge’
David Crowe from SMH and The Age: “What are your reflections on the mistakes, if any, in that campaign?”
Erickson:
No campaign is perfect. The experience of every campaign is the challenges are constantly thrown at you and things go wrong. The test is not whether you can run a mistake-free campaign. The test is how do you respond when new challenges emerge, when events throw unexpected dynamics at you, or when mistakes happen.
It was even more so the case in this campaign because of Covid. We were constantly having people get sick. I missed a week, the leader missed a week, the president, the assistant national secretary, I think around half of the cabinet.
So it was just constantly coming at us. And so the way I think to deal with that is as a campaigner is just to maintain that focus on what is your strategy, what are you trying to do? And that’s how we dealt with and grappled with challenges as they came along.
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Labor can continue to build support and lift primary vote, Erickson says
Greg Brown from The Australian asks if the days of 40% primary votes are over.
Erickson:
No, no, I think there are lots of examples around the world and through Australia’s history of a government like this one coming into office in circumstances like this and then building its support and building its support through good government and by delivering on what it promised.
I think we have seen, you know, the Ardern government in New Zealand is a good example in terms of looking at their result in 2017, and then their re-election, there have been examples at a state level here in Australia in the recent history of state Labor governments. And that’s the challenge that’s in front of us.
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‘We did win in our right’: Labor national secretary
Phil Coorey from the AFR: “What is it in your view that Labor needs to do over the next three years to get that primary vote up and to win it in your own right without the factors that helped you last time?”
Erickson:
We did win in our own right.
And don’t agree with the proposition that my speech or my remarks have made an argument that we didn’t win it and they lost it.
I think in my remarks I set out how we thought about the election and that we felt that we had two arguments we had to make. First, how would Australia be different under a Labor government led by Anthony Albanese? And we set that case out.
We set it out in principle in terms of Anthony’s leadership style and we set it out in detail on issues like climate, childcare, health and wages and the cost of living.
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Erickson denies misleading voters on cashless debit card
Labor national secretary Paul Erickson is now taking questions at the National Press Club.
Anna Henderson from SBS: “Labor was accused during the election campaign of misleading voters in relation to the cashless debit card and paid advertising suggests it was going to be expanded to all age pensioners. On reflection, was that a lie?”
Erickson:
Absolutely it was not a lie. We campaigned against the cashless debit card and pointed to the Liberal government and Anne Ruston the former minister’s own words and we have now taken steps as we committed to abolish the cashless debit card.
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And with that, I will hand the blog over to the wonderful Cait Kelly for the rest of the day. Thanks for reading.
Updated
Speaking after meeting with defence minister Kishi in Japan, Marles says he has a “very positive impression of the closeness and depth of our bilateral relationship & its potential as a force for good for both of our countries and for our region”. Pics supplied by Marles’ office pic.twitter.com/IykoKu1uEh
— Daniel Hurst (@danielhurstbne) June 15, 2022
Labor campaign director's eight reasons why the Coalition lost the election
Paul Erickson has summarised why the Coalition lost in eight key points:
One, a pathological refusal to take responsibility for anything which comes from their small government mindset.
Two, incompetent management of the Federal Government’s responsibilities during the pandemic.
Three, cabinet-wide partisan attacks on state and territory governments throughout Covid which particularly alienated voters in Victoria and Western Australia.
Four, incompetent budget management.
Five, an incompetent and incoherent response to the cost of living crisis.
Six, incoherent engagement with our allies in our region.
Seven, a lack of awareness or interest in women’s experiences across the economy and society.
Eight, a decades long failure to take climate change seriously.
Scott Morrison may have come to personify these failures but they are institutional and collective, not individual. They’re actively prosecuted by senior cabinet ministers and all Coalition leaders, including the two men then seen as the only likely successors to Scott Morrison – Josh Frydenberg and Peter Dutton.
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Paul Erickson says Coalition’s ‘all out assault’ on states amid Covid was ‘galling’
Paul Erickson makes particular point of discussing the gendered approach the Morrison government often took to particular issues, including the response to Covid.
Erickson first pointed out the Coalition’s “galling” choice to engaging in an “all out assault” on state and territory Labor governments:
It was odd and then galling to watch the Liberals commence an all out assault on state and territory Labor governments in the second half of 2020 over the Covid response.
This began with the passive cynicism of Morrison reducing his daily media appearances as second wave outbreaks in New South Wales and Victoria took off, leaving it to the premiers to front the bad news. It started at the top, but this strategy was pursued with enthusiasm by the entire Coalition led not just by Morrison but by the whole of the cabinet.
This was followed by Morrison’s recklessly partisan [criticism] of the Andrew’s government roadmap back to normal, which the media establishment outside of Melbourne misunderstood in my judgement. Morrison’s cynical criticism of the Palaszczuk’s government border closure in the lead-up of the state election was beneath any prime minister. And of course the Liberals backed Clive Palmer’s failed high court challenge to the WA border closure.
Morrison showed he had a ‘failure to understand women’, Erikson says
Erickson then points out two interesting points: the first, that the Morrison government put forward its network of cabinet ministers and advisors “shaping government policy”, and 13 of the 14 were men.
Next, Erickson points out the Morrison government ended free childcare, as well as going back over his response to Australia reckoning with “workplace culture and bullying, sexual harassment and sexual assault in parliamentary and political workplaces”.
Women suffered the most during the pandemic, yet the Liberal response demonstrated either a lack of awareness or a lack of interest. Scott Morrison’s strange inability to comprehend life outside his own experiences had already been on display. .
I’m not here to offer any partisan conclusions about the culture of Parliament House, but in the context of this year’s federal election I would make this observation: two of Scott Morrison’s comments from that period continued to come up in our research right up until the election day as indicative of his failure to understand women.
First, that it wasn’t until he considered these issues as a husband and a father that he was able to reflect and listen.
And secondly, that women who marched outside Parliament House were lucky not to be met with bullets.
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Labor national secretary says voters rejected Coalition and ‘more of the same’
Labor’s national secretary and election campaign director, Paul Erickson, is addressing the National Press Club now, discussing the context behind Labor’s victory at the federal election.
Erickson credits Anthony Albanese’s offering of a “better future” as opposed to three more years of Scott Morrison as the “powerful argument” that secured the party victory.
Labor won the election because we talked about the future and we offered the country an alternative to more of the same. After two years of Covid ... and nearly a decade of Coalition neglect, Labor offered Australians the chance to elect a prime minister who would show up, who would take responsibility and would work with people to solve problems – an opportunity that Australians took.
The biggest barrier Labor had to overcome was not voters’ evaluation of our proposition or a counter offer from the Coalition. It was a widespread and deep sense of fatigue, anxiety and aversion to risk after some of the most difficult years that we have endured.
Normally these sentiments would drive fence sitters decisively back to the government of the day and weigh heavily against an effort to build a majority for change.
Yet we had a powerful argument – we assert that the alternatives of this election were not the devil you know or a leap into the unknown, instead it was a clear choice between a better future under Anthony Albanese or three more years of a Morrison government.
In the 18 months leading up to polling day, the Coalition refused to talk about the future and refused to put forward anything resembling a positive case for their own re-election.
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We welcome the Fair Work Commission’s announcement of a $1.05 an hour pay rise for Australians on the minimum wage.
— Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP) June 15, 2022
This is great news, but it's just the beginning. We have more work to do make sure more Australians can get ahead and have real economic security.
— Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP) June 15, 2022
My message to Australian families who are doing it tough is this - I'm on your side and we are working hard for you.
— Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP) June 15, 2022
Victorian government confident it has enough power supply
Senior Victorian minister Jacinta Allan told reporters earlier today the state was not in danger of any blackouts, saying it has sufficient energy supply and that it has no plans to change its position on the permanent ban on coal seam gas exploration.
There is undoubtedly pressure on our energy supply but the advice from Aemo is that Victoria has adequate power supply.
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Tony Burke says era of wages being kept ‘deliberately low’ is over
Bowen is followed by the minister for employment and workplace relations, Tony Burke, who takes credit for the increase to the minimum wage, and blasts the former government for not pushing for an increase earlier:
The era of wages being kept deliberately low by the Liberal and National parties effectively came to an end today. It came to an end for people on the minimum wage. It came to an end for cleaners, for shop assistants, for people in the care economy. A wage increase that the Liberal and National Party never would have advocated for.
People will be seeing in their bank accounts what the change of government means. People will be seeing in their bank accounts a wage increase that never would have happened back when we had a government committed and determined to keep wages deliberately low. For the first time in nearly a decade, we’ve had a government argue for a real wage increase and now it’ll be delivered.
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Chris Bowen says energy system ‘under pressure’
Next up is the energy minister, Chris Bowen, who says he is so far pleased that the country has avoided blackouts, but says the system is under “pressure” and that the government supports Aemo to manage the situation:
I’m very pleased that we have been able to avoid so far any significant load shedding events or of course blackouts. I am also pleased that Aemo advises me that that will likely continue to be the case, that we will be able to avoid any load shedding events or any blackouts. Of course that is subjected to any unexpected outages in the system.
As I’ve said repeatedly this week, the system is under pressure. We have administered pricing (controls) in Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia and Victoria and that is leading to market outcomes which are requiring Aemo to intervene very heavily into the market.
And yesterday, Aemo directed more than 5,000 megawatts into the market using their powers. They directed generators to bid into the market and to generate more than 5,000 megawatts across the national energy market.
As I said, Aemo advises that the situation continues to remain that load shedding and blackouts are unlikely, but continues under very active management.
I’ve made clear to Aemo that the government supports any action they choose to take to effectively manage the situation in the best interests of Australian consumers, whether they be big industrial consumers or residential consumers.
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Albanese 'absolutely' welcomes increase to minimum wage
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, has welcomed the Fair Work Commission’s increase to the minimum wage, and referenced a key moment from the election campaign:
At the heart of the election campaign, I was asked whether I would welcome a decision by the Fair Work Commission to increase the minimum wage by just $1. And today, they have done just that. And when I was asked, Would I welcome a decision? I said, Absolutely.
And I absolutely welcome today’s decision of a 5.2% increase granted by the Fair Work Commission to all those who are on the minimum wage. That lifts the minimum wage up by just $1.05 an hour or $40 a week. It makes a difference to people who are struggling with the cost of living.
The Fair Work Commission, having assessed the impact on the economy, having made an assessment based upon all the submissions, has chosen 5.2% – which is why we didn’t put a precise figure on it. We just said we didn’t want people to go backwards, and I welcome that.
The truth is that many of those people who are on the minimum wage are the heroes who saw us through the pandemic. These workers deserve more than our thanks, they deserve a pay rise and today they’ve got it.
Updated
The prime minister Anthony Albanese has just stepped up for a press conference.
Updated
Aemo warns of power shortfalls in South Australia
The Australian Energy Market Operator has issued a warning for South Australia, where power shortfalls are being anticipated in a few days time.
In a statement, the Aemo says people in South Australia could see interruptions to their power on Friday morning and evening.
From 8am to 9.30am on Friday, the maximum load forecast to be interrupted is 359 megawatts, while from 5pm to 9.30pm that evening the maximum load forecast to be interrupted is 382 megawatts.
Aemo has not yet estimated the latest time it would need to intervene through an Aemo intervention event.
Aemo is seeking a market response.
Updated
An increase in the min wage at the rate of inflation is not a raise.
— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) June 15, 2022
We didn't just kick the Libs out to keep wages flat, it's past time for a real raise for those on low wages & sub-poverty line income supports to start reversing the slide into US-style inequality.
Blackstone’s takeover of Crown Resorts approved by federal court
The federal court has approved US private equity group Blackstone’s takeover of Crown Resorts, paving the way for the troubled casino group to de-list from the stock exchange.
Justice Stewart Anderson gave the takeover scheme approval after a brief hearing this morning.
It’s not quite right to say he rubber-stamped the deal – these days, the court’s seal is applied digitally.
The pathway to the courthouse was cleared over the past week when state-based gambling regulators approved Blackstone as a fit and proper operator of the casinos they oversee.
Blackstone is now able to pay shareholders, including James Packer, for their stakes in the company and take full control. You can expect it to be de-listed from the ASX quite quickly.
The takeover comes after a torrid period for Crown, with multiple inquiries into allegations of money laundering and links between the junket operators who brought in high-rolling gamblers and organised crime, sparked by a 2019 expose in Nine Entertainment’s newspapers and on its flagship current affairs show, 60 Minutes.
Crown facilitated money laundering at its Melbourne and Perth casinos and junket operators were indeed linked to organised crime, the first of the inquiries, in NSW, found.
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Woolworths to freeze prices of some essential items
Woolworths has announced it will freeze the prices of some essential items until the end of the year to help customers struggling with the increased cost of living.
The retail giant has decided to freeze the prices of flour, sugar, canned tomatoes, frozen peas, chicken tenders, laundry powder and dishwashing liquid.
In an email that will be circulated among customers on Thursday, Woolworths chief executive Brad Banducci said:
We know this is a significant portion of weekly household budgets.
As we all lean into the challenges of inflation, rest assured the whole team at Woolworths is committed to making sure you can always Get your Woolies worth.
Updated
AEC declines recount in seat of Gilmore
The Australian Electoral Commission says it will not conduct a recount in the federal seat of Gilmore, after Liberal candidate Andrew Constance requested one yesterday.
“I can confirm that a recount will not be directed. The request was considered carefully,” an AEC spokesperson said.
The counting process was undertaken in line with the Electoral Act and there was sufficient checking and re-checking of ballot papers during the scrutiny period (including the fresh scrutiny process).
The declaration of the poll for Gilmore is being reset with a time and location to be updated on the AEC’s website shortly.
The AEC has carefully considered and declined a request for a recount in the division of Gilmore.
— AEC ✏️ (@AusElectoralCom) June 15, 2022
We'll be publishing an updated time for a declaration of this seat in due course. #auspol
Constance said his scrutineers in the ultra-marginal seat had “raised concerns in relation to certain aspects of the process, particularly the scrutiny of informal votes”, claiming there were “strong grounds for a recount” considering the close result.
Constance came up just short, recording a 2.44% swing but ending up behind Labor on a two-party margin of 50.17–49.83, according to the AEC’s official results.
The Labor MP Fiona Phillips was due to be declared the winner in Gilmore on the NSW south coast at 2pm on Tuesday, but the declaration was delayed due to the request.
The AEC said on Wednesday it would officially declare the result in Gilmore at a date soon to be confirmed.
Phillips welcomed the news in a tweet, saying “Andrew Constance’s application for a recount in Gilmore has been denied”.
We’ve reached out to Constance for comment.
The AEC have advised me this morning that Andrew Constance’ application for a recount in Gilmore has been denied. The details for the AEC Gilmore poll declaration event will be announced shortly. Thanks again to everyone for your ongoing and kind support. 77 #auspol
— Fiona Phillips MP (@fiboydphillips) June 15, 2022
Updated
Penny Wong to head to Solomon Islands
The foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, is heading to Solomon Islands this week – the first trip to the country since it signed a security deal with China.
It was announced yesterday that Wong would be heading to New Zealand for meetings with her counterpart, Nanaia Mahuta, tomorrow. And Wong has just announced that she will then head to Solomon Islands on Friday:
On Friday, I will visit Solomon Islands, where I will meet Prime Minister the Hon Manasseh Sogavare and a number of his Cabinet ministers. I also look forward to engaging with the local community, including women leaders.
We are committed to deepening our cooperation with Solomon Islands, as we work together to face shared challenges and achieve our shared goals, including on climate change.
I look forward to discussing the ways we can continue to make progress on pandemic recovery, economic development and labour mobility priorities, and addressing our shared security interests.
This will be Wong’s third trip to the Pacific since being sworn in last month. Wong also said her statement that New Zealand was “an indispensable partner in our ambitions for a stronger Pacific family”.
Wong said she and Mahuta would “consider ways we can work together, to make the most of the new energy and resources the Australian Government is bringing to the Pacific”.
Wong said there were “new possibilities for collaboration with New Zealand in support of regional security and on climate change” and she looked forward to “drawing on New Zealand’s experiences as Australia develops a First Nations foreign policy”
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Aged care sector welcomes wage rise but urges federal government to lift funding
The aged care sector has welcomed today’s minimum wage increase, but has warned it needs a funding increase from the federal government to help struggling providers remain viable.
Industry peak body Aged & Community Care Providers Association said it was clear that aged care workers needed a “significant” pay increase.
But the association’s interim chief executive Paul Sadler said that without additional government support, aged care providers would continue to face an impossible choice between investing in quality and finding savings to keep the doors open.
A significant wage increase for our workforce is essential to attract new people and improve quality of care to older Australians, but when two-thirds of providers are already running at a loss year-on-year, we need the wage increase to be funded by the federal government.
Separate from this morning’s case, the Fair Work Commission is also exploring aged care pay through its aged care work value case, which Labor promised to fully fund if it won government. But that aged care work value case is unlikely to conclude until early next year.
In its findings, the aged care royal commission said the government’s current funding indexation process was inadequate, and had failed to keep up with the increased costs faced by providers.
The royal commission recommended that short-term indexation changes be made to improve funding levels in the next few years, until a new independent pricing process, designed to advise government on the cost of aged care services, can begin its work.
That recommendation was not accepted by the previous government.
Sadler said:
If we don’t see urgent action the aged care workforce crisis is simply going to translate into other serious problems like increased closures, or offsets in other areas such as training or investment in facilities.
Updated
Ai Group says wage rise will ‘add fuel to the inflation fire’
Reactions to the Fair Work Commission’s decision continue to pour in, with the head of the national industry association Ai Group saying the increase will “add fuel to the inflation fire”.
Innes Willox, chief executive of Ai Group, said the minimum wage increase could increase inflation and lead to even higher interest rates:
There is a major risk that the 5.2% per cent increase that has been awarded to the National Minimum Wage, with increases of between 4.6% and 5.2% to award rates, will fuel inflation and lead to even higher interest rates; even more hardship for people with mortgages, personal loans or credit card debts; and add substantially to the risk of unemployment and underemployment - particularly for unskilled employees.
The cost increase will be difficult to absorb for businesses that are already struggling to cope with big increases in material and energy costs, interest rate rises, supply chain disruptions and labour shortages.
Updated
Minimum wage rise a 'risk to the economy', chamber of commerce head says
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive, Andrew McKellar, has responded to the minimum wage decision, warning it is a “risk to the economy” and would add $7.9bn to employers’ costs.
But even more interesting than the usual complaints about costs was McKellar’s proposal to excise 2.5 million award-reliant workers from the annual wage review, leaving it for the 180,000 lowest paid workers on the national minimum wage.
McKellar told reporters in Canberra:
What this highlights is that frankly this national wage case process, the way it feeds into the modern awards, it’s an antiquated process, it’s a process that’s had its day, it’s not compatible with the internationally competitive economy that needs to operate in a flexible way and responding to the circumstances, the competitive challenges and need to drive productivity.
Asked what the alternative is, he said:
You must have [centralised wage fixing] for minimum wages, fine, for the 180,000 people on the lowest wage safety net. But when it flows through to the modern award system it needs to be looked at on a case-by-case basis. We need to get back to much more effective enterprising bargaining, flexible wage setting driven by the market.
This proposal is interesting. It either means that the Fair Work Commission should run separate reviews of minimums in awards on a case-by-base basis, or, that if you’re on an award and want a pay rise you should turn to enterprise bargaining with your employer.
McKellar didn’t clarify the comments after the press conference, but reiterated that the “one size fits all” approach of one wage case deciding the pay of 2.6 million workers “isn’t flexible” and alternatives should be on the agenda at the Albanese government’s employment summit.
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Consumer sentiment plunges towards historic low, Westpac survey says
As today’s 5.2% minimum wage increase decision by the Fair Work Commission ripples through the economy, Westpac and the Melbourne Institute have released their latest consumer sentiment survey that points to ongoing falls.
The latest @WestpacMacro and @MelbInstUOM survey of consumer sentiment sees confidence falling 4.5% in June from May as rate rises kick in. #auspol pic.twitter.com/EeCp7AIlsQ
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
Bill Evans, Westpac’s chief economist, said the 4.5% drop in the index to 86.4 took the gauge towards historic low. It followed the Reserve Bank’s decision last week to hike the cash rate by 50 basis points to 0.85%.
“This read is even weaker than we had expected,” Evans said.
“Over the 46-year history of the survey, we have only seen Index reads at or below this level during major economic dislocations.
“The record lows have been during COVID-19 (75.6); the Global Financial Crisis (79.0); early 1990s recession (64.6); the mid-1980s slowdown (78.7) and the early 1980s recession (75.5),” he said.
“Those last three episodes were associated with high inflation; rising interest rates; and a contracting economy – a mix that may be threatening to repeat.”
Also worrying is the drop in homebuyer interest, which is close to the lowest in more than a decade, during the GFC.
Among the consumer sentiment variables, the home buyer sentiment gauge is "nearing Global Financial Crisis lows", @WestpacMacro and @MelbInstUOM says. pic.twitter.com/5zCEUacLfF
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
If sentiment is dimming now, though, imagine what it will look like if investors are right about the near-term future track for the RBA’s cash rate.
Ahead of the 5.2% minimum wage increase (and Lowe's comments about inflation peaking at 7%), investors rated the chance of the RBA lifting the cash rate next month to 1.5% as a three-in-four chance. #auspol pic.twitter.com/grE5u1dc5n
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
If the 1.5% rate by 5 July is right, the 65 basis point increase would be the most by the RBA since 1994.
Updated
I welcome the decision by the Fair Work Commission to lift the minimum wage by 5.2% so that Australia's low-paid workers don't go backwards, in line with the submission lodged by the @AlboMP @AustralianLabor Government. #auspol
— Jim Chalmers MP (@JEChalmers) June 15, 2022
National wage case process ‘antiquated’, chamber of commerce head says
McKellar has gone on to call the national wage case process “antiquated” when asked if he is concerned about future pay rises:
It certainly adds to that pressure at a time when labour is intensely difficult to access. We are seeing record levels of vacancies out there in the work place at the moment. One of the things that this decision highlights, and the commission has tried to really nuance, it is a very complicated decision and there is a number of different elements to it.
What this highlights is that, frankly, this national wage case process, the way it feeds into the modern awards, it is an antiquated process. It is a process that’s had its day, it is not compatible with the needs of a modern internationally competitive economy that needs to be operating in a flexible way and responding to the circumstances.
Updated
Chamber of commerce boss says wages should be flexible and ‘driven by the market’
So, what does chamber of commerce boss McKellar propose as an alternative?
For minimum wages, fine, that is the 180,000 people on the lowest wages, the wage safety net. When it flows through into the modern award system, this needs to be looked at on a case by case basis. We need to get back to much more effective enterprise bargaining, flexible wage settings, driven by the market.
Updated
Key event
Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry laments minimum wage increase
Now we are jumping into a press conference with the chief executive of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Andrew McKellar, who says the increase to minimum wage is a “significant risk” to economy:
It veers very much towards the upper end of the range of possible outcomes that we could have expected to have seen today. In particular, this adds very significant costs to the Australian economy and to business.
By our calculation, this will add $7.9bn in costs to the affected businesses over the year ahead, so that will be a very considerable burden that those businesses will either have to take to the bottom line, or pass onto their customers.
It comes at a time when inflation is emerging as one of the most urgent challenges facing the Australian economy and if we are to address that, if we are to remain competitive, then, clearly, this is not a decision that will help in those circumstances.
Updated
‘People will actually be able to buy the food they need for their families’: McManus
McManus is next asked what difference the wage increase will have for households on minimum wage:
For a household on minimum wages, we are talking about an extra $40 a week. That is going to make a significant difference. If you consider the basics.
If you are are on the minimum, all of your wage is spent on the basics. Your grocery bills, your rent, that is your transport costs and your energy costs.
That amount per week is going to mean that people will actually be able to buy the food they need for their families as opposed to having to cut back on that.
Updated
McManus: ‘We have always been very mindful of not adding to inflation’
McManus is asked whether the increase will stand the test of time, especially with inflation set to reach 7%. Will another wage crisis hit again?
We were always concerned about what future inflation would be and this moved around the whole time of this annual wage review. It was only yesterday that the reserve bank governor said he thinks inflation will get to around 7% around Christmas.
That is halfway through the pay increase. We were mindful of that problem which is why we were asking for a 5.5% increase and we thought that was reasonable. We don’t know what is going to happen into the future, in terms of inflation, whether or not it is a spike that will quickly come off or whether or not it is going to be something that continues longer than a year.
If it continues longer than a year, obviously, we will need to make sure workers do get pay rises that mean they keep their heads above water. We have always been very mindful of not adding to inflation, that is why we have never asked for a pay increase that is more than inflation and productivity.
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ACTU secretary Sally McManus welcomes minimum wage increase
We think it is going to make a significant difference to the pressures that low-paid workers are under with cost of living rising.
The union movement fought so hard for this increase across pretty heavy cross winds. We also had to oppose what the employers were arguing for which was very significant real wage cuts at a time when their profits are up 20% and productivity is up as well as unemployment being low.
This decision is one that is reasonable and it is fair. It means that for low-paid workers like Jordan who is with me, he will have a better ability to pay rent and pay for the groceries and to pay for energy bills as well.
The union movement is happy and proud that we have fought for this increase and that it is going to make a big difference for so many workers.
Updated
Looking a little ahead, @AEMO_Energy is forecast electricity shortfalls for Friday morning and evening… pic.twitter.com/o7oyYPCZjW
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
Fair Work boss says rise will not have significant negative impact on economy
Ross continued, saying the approach of the commission was one balanced between the needs to address the difficulties faced by people on low wages, with the needs of the economy:
We accept that the approach we have adopted will result in, albeit minor, compression in relativities.
But that consideration is to be balanced against the need to provide greater relief to low-paid workers in the context of rising cost of living pressures. Given the current strength of the labour market, the adjustments we propose to make will not have a significant adverse effect on the performance and competitiveness of the national economy.
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Some award employees will still have a real wage cut despite rise, Ross says
Fair Work Commission president Iain Ross:
In our view, awarding an increase in modern award minimum wages of the magnitude proposed by ACCER, some 6.5%, and the ACTU - 5.5%, would, in the present economic circumstances, pose a real risk of significant adverse effects to the national economy.
We acknowledge that the increases we have determined will mean a real wage cut for some award reliant employees.
This is an issue that can be addressed in subsequent reviews.
Updated
Minimum wage rise delayed until October for aviation, tourism and hospitality sectors
Fair Work Commission president Iain Ross has revealed the increase in the minimum wage will be delayed to 1 October in the aviation, tourism and hospitality sectors.
Ross said:
Absent exceptional circumstances, the Act provides the variations to a national minimum wage order and to modern award minimum wages are to operate from 1 July in the financial year following the review we are satisfied that exceptional circumstances exist, such as the warranty or delayed operative date for certain modern awards. These awards are in the aviation tourism and hospitality sector.
The variation determinations in respect of [those] modern awards ... will come into operation on 1 October 2022.
In respect of the remaining modern awards, We have not been persuaded that there are exceptional circumstances, such as to warrant a delayed operative date in the variation determinations arising from this review.
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Fair Work Commission rules on 5.2% increase to minimum wage
The Fair Work Commission has ordered the national minimum wage to increase by 5.2%, lifting the national minimum wage from $20.33 to $21.38 an hour. That is a $40 per week increase.
Modern award minimum rates will go up 4.6% “subject to a minimum increase of $40 per week”.
Justice Iain Ross:
In effect, modern award minimum wage rates above $869.60 per week will receive a 4.6% adjustments wage rates below that level will be adjusted by $40 per week.
The decision sets the pay of at least 2.7m workers on the national minimum or award minimum wages.
Ross said the “most significant changes” since last year’s decision was “a sharp increase in the cost of living and the strengthening of the labour market”. He noted the low-paid are “particularly vulnerable” to high inflation, which “erodes the real value of workers wages”.
Ross said:
At the aggregate level, labor market performance has been particularly strong. The unemployment rate has fallen to 3.9% compared to 5.5% in April 2021. At the time of the last review, measures of underemployment have also fallen. The improvement in the labor market is forecast to continue in the period ahead. There has also been a sharp rise in the cost of living since last year’s review at the time of last year’s decision, the consumer price index and the underlying measure of inflation. Both stood at 1.1%. The comparable figures now standard 5.1% for the CPI and 3.7% for the trimmed mean or the underlying inflation rate. There is also a marked difference in the inflation forecasts.
Ross said these figures weigh in favour of a higher increase, because employers’ groups’ calls for a moderate increase of about 2.5% would result in real pay cuts.
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breaking: the Fair Work Commission has decided on a 5.2% increase to the minimum wage
— Josh Butler (@JoshButler) June 15, 2022
minimum wage to go to $812.60 a week, $21.38 an hour
the Albanese government's submission had asked wages "do not go backwards" against inflation of 5.1% pic.twitter.com/eDzaNSPdLr
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Fair Work Commission handing down decision on minimum wage
The president of the Fair Work Commission Iain Ross has been speaking now, laying out the context behind the decision he will (soon) announce:
The key differences in economic indicators between last year and this year are set out in table four in our decision. The most significant changes since last year’s review decision have been the sharp increase in the cost of living and the strengthening of the labour market. At the aggregate level, labour market performance has been particularly strong. The unemployment rate has fallen to 3.9%. Compared to 5.5% in April 2021, at the time of the last review.
The improvement in the labour market is forecast to continue in the period ahead. There has also been a sharp rise in the cost of living since last year’s
review. At the time of last year’s decision, the consumer price index and the underlying measure of inflation both stood at 1.1%. The comparable figures now stand at 5.1% for the CPI and 3.7% for the trimmed mean, or the underlying inflation rate. There is also a marked difference in the inflation forecasts.
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Generators under pressure
The Australian Energy Market Operator has taken a little time this morning to update its forecast electricity shortfalls. The aim is to highlight the gap and then nudge the generators to fill it.
Here’s the one for Queensland, a so-called level 3 “lack of reserve” notice.
As for the forecast supply shortfalls, here’s the first major update today from @AEMO_Energy … this is for Queensland for later today… pic.twitter.com/BBfmUFxuHI
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
NSW is forecast – for now, at least – to have a bigger gap, also in the evening:
And this one for NSW, also for this evening… pic.twitter.com/PgSJ4ORVB2
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) June 15, 2022
There are a bunch of other LoR’s, although they are at level 1 and 2. These include Victoria and South Australia, so we’ll be keeping a beady eye on those too.
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Brisbane council to increase rates on short-stay rental properties
Brisbane property owners who list their homes as short-term accommodation will face a 50% increase in rates amid the state’s housing crisis.
The announcement is expected to come on Wednesday as the lord mayor, Adrian Schrinner, hands down the Liberal National party’s $4bn budget.
Schrinner told ABC Radio Brisbane the council wants homeowners to put their properties back into the long-term rental market rather than listing them on sites such as Airbnb.
What we see is renters are being affected with rents going up significantly, and then those that are wanting to get a rental property are having real difficulty at the moment getting access to anything.
If owners had these properties in the market for short-term, overnight stays – that is their choice, but what they’ll be facing now is a 50% increase in their rates.
Schrinner said the rate hike will not affect owners who only rent out a single room, granny flat or shared accommodation.
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Another day of monitoring energy flows within and between states.
One thing, though, needs to be cleared up. The Australia Energy Regulator, along with other members of the Energy Security Board, will be meeting with generators to discuss the strained market.
Energy ministers are NOT expected to take part, an AER spokesperson has just clarified with the Guardian. (Clare Savage, AER’s chair, made comments on radio this morning which may have implied ministers would be tuning in, but that’s not the case – for now at least.)
Meanwhile, in the market itself, there are no updates yet of the status of level 3 lack of reserve warnings for each of the five states within the National Electricity Market from the Australian Energy Markets Operator.
First thing this morning, Aemo said it had “successfully directed generators, which hadn’t bid into the market, to be available”.
In another hint of the arm-twisting going on, the regulator said today:
Today, AEMO continues to encourage generators across the NEM through our lack of reserve (LOR) notices in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia to bid their availability into the market, rather than being directed to do so.
(The underlining was in the original statement, to underscore the point, presumably.)
Anyway, ahead of today’s regulators and generators’ meeting Electrical Trades Union has blasted “10 years of regulatory neglect” and called for an immediate review of the regulatory frameworks that make up the Nem.
ETU’s Queensland state secretary Peter Ong said “these warnings of blackouts and supply shortages are symptomatic of private energy companies gaming a system that
has for years had plenty of acronyms and boards but very little actual regulation”. (He’s right they do have a lot of acronyms.) Ong said:
Australia is one of the world’s leading coal and gas producers, yet we have the absurd situation where we are held to ransom by multinational, tax-avoiding, gas companies who export massive amounts of gas at exorbitant prices while withholding supply to maximise profit in eastern Australia. While we also have coal companies exporting large quantities overseas rather than providing it to generate power.
We urge [Queensland energy minister Mick] de Brenni to call on the federal government to undertake an immediate review of Australia’s broken National Electricity Market that is responsible for this ongoing crisis.
Secondly, we call on the state government to use the upcoming budget and energy lan to accelerate construction of public-owned renewable generation and storage assets.
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Victoria records 18 Covid deaths and 8,687 new cases
Victoria is reporting 8,687 new Covid cases and 18 deaths:
We thank everyone who got vaccinated and tested yesterday.
— VicGovDH (@VicGovDH) June 14, 2022
Our thoughts are with those in hospital, and the families of people who have lost their lives.
More data soon: https://t.co/OCCFTAcOZP#COVID19Vic #COVID19VicData pic.twitter.com/cEY9jZYAIW
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Derryn Hinch confirms Victoria parliament run
The AAP is reporting former Victorian senator Derryn Hinch has announced his plans to run in the November state election.
The 78-year-old founder of Derryn Hinch’s Justice party confirmed the news on Twitter on Tuesday night.
“Yes ... it is true,” Hinch tweeted in response to a question about his run.
He is eyeing a seat in the Victorian Upper House after failing to return to the federal Senate last month.
His party currently holds two seats in the upper house and he will nominate for the Southern Metropolitan Region.
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Quick note:
Really keen to speak with some older people and parents on jobseeker payments about the current (and the constant) cost of living challenges you're facing, particularly rent, power and groceries. Please send me a DM or email luke.henriques-gomes@theguardian.com if you can help.
— Luke Henriques-Gomes (@lukehgomes) June 14, 2022
NSW records 14 Covid deaths and 7,260 new cases
NSW is reporting 7,260 new Covid cases and 14 deaths this morning.
COVID-19 update – Wednesday 15 June 2022
— NSW Health (@NSWHealth) June 14, 2022
In the 24-hour reporting period to 4pm yesterday:
- 96.5% of people aged 16+ have had one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine
- 95% of people aged 16+ have had two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine pic.twitter.com/stTmc5DDUN
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Head of energy regulator says price cap not to blame for energy crisis
In what I assume will be an ongoing theme for the day, Clare Savage, chair of the Australian Energy Regulator, has refuted claims the price cap is to blame for generators choosing to withhold energy from the grid.
Savage was on ABC Radio Melbourne and said she would meet with generators today to encourage them to bid to market if they have generation available.
There is a process to make sure that generators can recover their costs. I don’t think that’s an excuse.
If generators have supply available they need to be bidding it into the market. They will receive the $300 which is the price cap and if they have costs in excess of that, they will be recovered.
Savage conceded that the regulator would consider lifting the cap beyond 300 megawatts per hour, but added it was no excuse for generators not to bid. She also said the volatility of the wholesale market would not likely affect consumers.
I think it’s really important to distinguish between what is a wholesale market.
There’s a lot of difficulty in the wholesale market right now … but retail customers are largely protected from that.
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Bill Shorten to highlight wider economic benefits of NDIS
NDIS minister Bill Shorten will today address the Where to From Here? national disability conference, with the Sydney Morning Herald reporting he will announce his focus will be to “improve the effectiveness of the NDIS”.
Shorten says there is “significant” opportunities to improve the system, with an eye on employment outcomes, adding that people usually take “a narrow view of sustainability.”
If the NDIS is effective, there’s a huge return on our investment in years to come. Not only does this return include stronger meaningful social and economic connections for people with disabilities, there’s also a financial return to governments ... including reducing health, employment, social security, housing and justice costs.
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Sarah Hanson-Young says Australia 'held hostage' by energy companies
Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young has told ABC News energy producers are “gaming the system”, adding that Australia was being “held hostage” due to a “broken” system.
Hanson-Young called for a greater government response to reform regulations, which she implied were being manipulated by corporations that are holding energy supply to profit from schemes encouraging them to produce more energy.
It’s quite clear that the rules are broken, the market is broken. This whole system needs to be reviewed.
They’re effectively … withholding supply, waiting for the energy agency to beg them to bid into the market, only then to get more money through compensation.
This is highway robbery by these big corporations, and it’s time they were pulled into line.
It’s polluting, it’s dirty fuel that’s getting increasingly expensive, most of it is foreign-owned, the profits go overseas, and they don’t pay too much tax. Australians are sick of it.
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SA premier urges federal intervention in east coast energy crisis
South Australian premier Peter Malinauskas is urging the federal government to intervene in the energy crisis gripping the east coast, saying the situation is a result of a “market failure on a grand scale”.
Malinauskas was speaking to the ABC and said his government were investing $600m into a hydrogen power plant to ensure the state has a “stable and secure” energy source.
We are witnessing market failure on a grand scale … across the national electricity market in a way that I think a range of policymakers should be deeply ashamed of.
We are in a first-world country that is energy rich, and the fact we’ve now got Australians being told to turn porch lights off to keep the system going, I think that is somewhat of an embarrassment.
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RBA boss says inflation could hit 7%
Last night the Reserve Bank governor, Philip Lowe, was on the ABC’s 7.30 giving a rare insight into his thinking.
Lowe said he was determined to ensure inflation is returned to 2-3%, while warning it might reach 7% by the end of the year, well above the 6% forecast by the bank only a couple of weeks ago.
We’ll do what’s necessary to get inflation back to 2-3%. It’s unclear at the moment how far interest rates will need to go up to get that.
I think by the end of the year inflation will get too close to 7%, and we need to chart a course to bring it back down.
Lowe stressed that interest rates had been at “emergency levels” in response to the pandemic, and that the situation needed to “gradually return to normal”.
I say that because the midpoint of our inflation target is 2.5%, so an interest rate of 2.5% in inflation-adjusted terms is really an interest rate of zero, which in historical terms is a very low number.
How fast we get to 2.5%, indeed whether we get to 2.5%, is going to be determined by events.
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Energy boss says price cap 'incentivising' generators to withhold power
Australian Energy Council chief executive Sarah McNamara says the price cap might be “incentivising” generators to withhold power.
McNamara was on RN Breakfast this morning and she blamed the price cap of $300 per megawatt hour – which she said is “significantly below” the wholesale cost of electricity for most generators – for the energy crisis.
Some generators have responded by preferring in some cases to withdraw supply and wait to be directed on the market operator.
There is sufficient capacity in the market but the situation is tight. The price has the effect of incentivising some generators to sit on the sidelines and await direction from the market.
That’s because those generators are being squeezed between the price cap and their high input costs. Now, either way, because we’re in an administered pricing situation, there is a compensation regime available, and the industry is in conversations with the regulator and the market operator about how these things work.
But the truth is, we’re in a unique situation, and we’re deep in the weeds of market rules that hadn’t been engaged with before by many of the market participants. So it’s really an unprecedented set of circumstances .
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Mask mandates to ease at airports
Mask mandates are set to be eased in airport terminals across Australia after health officials found the rule was “no longer proportionate”, just days before Anthony Albanese meets with state and territory leaders.
The Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC) said in a statement issued late on Tuesday that it was proposing mask wearing in airport terminals “no longer be mandated” from as early as this Friday night:
The AHPPC notes that all states and territories have relaxed mask mandates in most settings within the community and considers that it is no longer proportionate to mandate mask use in airport terminals. The AHPPC proposes that mask wearing in airport terminals no longer be mandated from as early as midnight 17 June 2022.
Despite the proposal to no longer make them compulsory, the AHPPC said it “continues to strongly recommend continued mask wearing in airport terminals and other indoor settings, especially where physical distancing is not possible”.
The body said masks minimised Covid-19 and influenza transmission and protected “those who are unable to get vaccinated and people who have a higher risk of developing severe illness”.
The federal government responded to the new advice, saying it anticipated the travelling public would “notice this change in the days following Friday as individual state and territory jurisdictions make the necessary changes to their public health orders”.
The health minister, Mark Butler, and the transport minister, Catherine King, thanked “the thousands of people who work in our airport terminals around Australia who have followed the rules to keep us safe” and “the travelling public for continuing to comply with the ongoing regulations”.
The AHPPC brings together state, territory and federal chief medical and health officers. The prime minister is due to meet with state premiers and territory chief ministers at a national cabinet meeting on Friday.
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Good Morning
Good morning from bitterly cold Sydney, this is Mostafa Rachwani and I’ll be taking you through the news today.
We begin with the Fair Work Commission, which will deliver its verdict on an increase to the minimum wage. The commission’s expert panel, headed by president Iain Ross, will announce its decision at 10am, after the new government backed a 5.1% increase, in line with inflation.
Prime minister Anthony Albanese will be holding his first cabinet meeting in Queensland, in the manufacturing city of Gladstone, in a bid to reconnect with locals. The meeting will be paired with a lunchtime civic reception for local residents to ask questions of the MPs.
Last night Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe said in a rare interview that the RBA expects inflation to hit 7% by the end of the year, warning he’d “do what’s necessary” to keep inflation down.
Meanwhile, all eyes will be on the energy crisis after each of the five states in the national electricity market (Nem) – from Queensland to Tasmania – had a forecast shortfall of electricity, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo). Aemo has warned Victoria could next face blackouts this evening.
We’ll keep you updated on that as well as everything else happening today.
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