Labor claims Aston win, throwing Dutton’s Liberal leadership into question – as it happened

Mary Doyle and deputy prime minister Richard Marles celebrate Labor’s Aston byelection win with party faithful. Photograph: Julian Smith/AAP

12.08pm BST

Thank you for following along with us tonight, on what ended up being a historic win for the Labor party.

We will have more news and comment for you very soon, with our chief political corro, Paul Karp, working away as we speak.

We will have more on the fallout tomorrow, so make sure you tune in.

And most importantly – take care of you.

(And a reminder, daylight saving ends in the early hours of Sunday morning –so enjoy your extra hour!)

Updated at 12.23pm BST

12.06pm BST

Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell and opposition leader Peter Dutton at the party’s byelection function. Photograph: Julian Smith/AAP

There are non-stop rumours that Scott Morrison is going to pull the pin very soon, which would mean another byelection in Cook.

NSW is not as big an issue for the Liberal party as Victoria, so there are not quite the same concerns. But there are concerns about what this means for the Liberal party at large.

There are those who point to 2007, when the Liberals were smashed at the polls – and how the Liberals turned that around in two elections. But this is different. The next big election test is not until October 2024 when Queensland will go to the polls. The Palaszczuk government is weighed down by controversy and how long it is in power, but so far the LNP are not looking like they will be guaranteed a win. And that is worrying LNP strategists even at this early stage.

There are rumours that Anthony Albanese will move to capitalise on the Liberals’ issues and go to an early election next year, in order to get a mandate on the stage-three tax cuts. That is just scuttlebutt, but it is growing stronger.

This byelection is going to have ramifications. For Peter Dutton’s leadership (although there doesn’t seem to be any move for a spill, because as more than one Liberal MP said to me tonight “who else would we pick?”), for the voice – Dutton’s soft no doesn’t look like it has electoral support, and for the Liberal party moving forward.

And possibly, if it was smart, the Labor party. Which could take it as a “keep doing what you’re doing” result or, if it showed some forethought, as a push to be a little bolder and braver when it comes to the policies it is offering up.

The electorate is listening. And watching very closely. It would be a brave leader indeed who ignored that.

Updated at 12.41pm BST