For the first time in the 2060s, deaths are projected to outnumber births in Australia, while annual population growth is expected to average 0.9% over the next four decades. Lower fertility and declining net overseas migration are expected to contribute to the slowdown, according to the Australian Treasury's 2026 Intergenerational Report released on Monday.
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That compares with average population growth of 1.4% a year over the previous four decades. Net overseas migration — migrant arrivals minus departures — is projected to decline further before levelling off.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the number of Australians aged over 85 would triple by 2066, increasing demand for health services.
Labor introduced tighter immigration rules last week amid rising support for One Nation, which has called for steep reductions in immigration. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's approval rating also fell to its lowest level since he took office in 2022, Reuters reported.
For decades, migrant inflows have supported Australia's population growth despite persistently low birth rates. Japan, Germany and South Korea already record more deaths than births; Australia is projected to reach that point in the 2060s.
Treasury's 40-year outlook is built around five major shifts: the artificial intelligence revolution, geopolitical fragmentation, the energy transition, aging and the care economy, and Australia's industrial transformation.
Future budgets could include further tax cuts. The government has also been providing cost-of-living support as households contend with elevated inflation, mortgage costs and expensive housing.
Older regions could face care-sector labour shortages
An older population is expected to require more care services. Staffing pressures are projected to be greater in regions with older populations, particularly in healthcare and aged care, where migrant workers form an important part of the workforce.
