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By Daniela Altimari, Niels Lesniewski and Mary Ellen McIntire
Rising gas prices. Instability in the Middle East. President Donald Trump’s plummeting poll numbers. And historical headwinds that show the party in control of the White House almost always loses congressional seats in the midterm elections.
Republicans face significant challenges as they attempt to hold their tenuous grip on the House majority this fall. But they believe they have one ace up their sleeve: the tax cuts embedded in the massive tax and spending law crafted by the Trump administration and passed by Congress last year.
With next week’s deadline for filing federal tax returns looming, House Republicans are working overtime to remind voters about the tax relief measures contained in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (which the GOP is attempting to rebrand as “the Working Families Tax Cuts”).
“This legislation was written with families in mind and prevented the largest tax hike in American history by locking in lower tax rates for working-class and middle-class taxpayers,’’ Michigan Rep. Tom Barrett recently wrote in an opinion piece for Bridge Michigan. He also touted provisions that temporarily remove taxes on some tips and overtime pay.
Wisconsin Rep. Derrick Van Orden visited a senior center to highlight a new deduction for taxpayers 65 and older. “These folks built our nation, and I don’t want our seniors wringing their hands at night worried about paying the bills because they have to pay taxes on them,” Van Orden told residents of a senior community this week.
The New York Times recently interviewed dozens of Americans across the income spectrum and found the tax cuts were unevenly applied, with some high-earning taxpayers saying they were on course to receive their largest refund in years and others getting back little.
IRS data shows average refunds are up about $350 over last year. But Democrats say the law’s tax benefits have been modest — and more than offset by the pain inflicted by other provisions of the measure, such as cuts to food aid and Medicaid.
“Watching House Republicans spin a ridiculous narrative that if they just talked more about the Big, Ugly Bill, it will be a winning issue for them would be comical if the legislation wasn’t so awful,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in an email. “It’s a political albatross.”
Starting gate
Georgia red: Republican Clayton Fuller kept Georgia’s 14th District in the GOP column by winning Tuesday’s special election runoff to succeed former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, our colleague Victor Feldman reported. But his 12-point margin of victory raised alarm bells for his party in a district that Trump carried by 37 points in 2024.
“War on woke”: Republicans have long hammered Democrats for backing progressive policies on race, sexuality and gender. But in several key primaries this cycle, Republicans are seeking to paint their opponents as supporters of diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI, initiatives. They include Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, who faces a primary challenge from Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow.
You’ve got mail: Trump’s effort to curtail mail-in voting through executive order will likely be ruled illegal in at least one of several lawsuits filed this week, experts told our colleague Michael Macagnone.
Lines in the sand: Trump’s harsh rhetoric amid the volatile conflict with Iran has galvanized Democrats in Congress, with growing calls for impeachment or invoking the 25th Amendment, Roll Call’s Valerie Yurk and Savannah Behrmann report, and even spurred concern from Republicans who are traditionally simpatico with the president.
ICYMI
Wisconsin win: Liberal candidate Chris Taylor easily prevailed in Tuesday’s Wisconsin Supreme Court race, expanding the liberal majority on the bench to 5-2. Democrats say the result could be a prelude to a pair of congressional upsets this fall. “Wisconsin voters sent another clear message that they are ready for leaders who put them first, meaning time is running out for out-of-touch politicians Derrick Van Orden and Bryan Steil,” DCCC spokesperson Katie Smith said in a statement.
Ad reservations: The Senate Leadership Fund has announced $342 million in ad reservations in eight states ahead of the November elections. The reservations by the GOP super PAC break down as follows: $15 million in Alaska; $44 million in Georgia; $29 million in Iowa; $42 million in Maine; $45 million in Michigan; $17 million in New Hampshire; $71 million in North Carolina and $79 million in Ohio.
Slotkin 2028: The Des Moines Register reports that Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin says she would consider a 2028 presidential bid. “Midterms is what I’m focused on right now, but if it comes to the point afterwards that I think there’s not anyone else who’s on the right path, I guess I wouldn’t say no forever,” the Democrat told the newspaper.
Dropping out: Entrepreneur Richard Lamondin dropped out of the Democratic primary for Florida’s 27th District and will instead run for the state Senate, leaving former television news anchor Eliott Rodriguez and prosecutor Robin Peguero to face off in the race to challenge GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar. In Massachusetts’ 4th District, progressive Democrat Ihssane Leckey dropped her primary challenge to Rep. Jake Auchincloss, leaving three other candidates challenging the incumbent for the Democratic nomination.
Ad watch: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro joined 7th District candidate Bob Brooks in an ad, which highlights the former firefighter union leader’s support from both Shapiro and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
More ads: Planned Parenthood Action Fund announced a $1.5 million campaign targeting GOP Reps. Juan Ciscomani of Arizona; Gabe Evans of Colorado; Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania; Mike Lawler of New York; and Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa. The campaign includes a $900,000 ad buy in their districts, urging voters to oppose efforts to “defund” Planned Parenthood.
Crossing the line: Will Haynie, the Republican mayor of Mount Pleasant, S.C., endorsed Democratic Navy veteran Nancy Lacore in South Carolina’s open 1st District. Haynie told The (Charleston) Post and Courier that local concerns were more important than party loyalty.
Endorsements: 314 Action, which backs Democrats with science backgrounds, endorsed microbiologist and nursing professor Jasmine Clark in Georgia’s 13th District. Clark, who also serves in the state House, is part of a crowded primary field taking on longtime Rep. David Scott. The endorsement marks the first time 314 Action has waded into Democratic primaries against an incumbent.
Nathan’s notes
There was a time, not too long ago, when Republican strategists were optimistic about their party’s midterm prospects, with gas prices dropping, the stock market surging and tax refunds imminent, Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections writes.
But the Iran war has put a dent in that optimism, and Republicans in Congress are now on pace to suffer heavy losses in November, according to Nathan.
What we’re reading
“ShamWow guy” campaign spending: Offer Vince Shlomi, best known as the pitchman for his as-seen-on-TV cleaning towel, ShamWow, put more than $300,000 of his own money into his ill-fated House bid in Texas, NOTUS reports. He came in sixth out of 10 Republicans, with incumbent Rep. John Carter securing the nomination.
Social media savvy: CNN profiles Virginia Senate leader L. Louise Lucas, the “trash-talking, meme-posting great-grandmother” who has emerged as a key figure in Democrats’ redistricting push in the commonwealth.
A decisive blue dot: In the fight for Nebraska’s battleground 2nd District, it’s not just a House seat that’s on the line, National Journal reports, but a crucial Electoral College vote could be too if a certain Democrat gets elected to the House this fall.
#MISEN: Michigan Senate hopeful Abdul El-Sayed campaigned alongside controversial streamer Hasan Piker earlier this week, prompting questions about the strength of the Democratic Party coalition. The Associated Press looked at Piker’s past comments and spoke to him about the party’s response to him on the campaign trail.
The count: $104 million
That’s, at a minimum, how much federal campaigns and committees have spent on security expenses over the past decade, according to a new report from the Public Service Alliance, a nonpartisan group that offers security and privacy services to public officials. That figure includes nearly $1.4 million in digital-related security spending, as well as more than $5 million in event-related security costs.
Key race: #MI07
Candidates: Three Democrats are facing off in an August primary to take on Republican Tom Barrett in this perennial swing seat. They include former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink, retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam and progressive activist William Lawrence.
Why it matters: Barrett is a top Democratic target after flipping the seat in 2024 to succeed Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who was elected to the Senate. The Democratic primary is starting to heat up about four months away from the election, with the three candidates meeting at a forum this week. Brink’s campaign released a polling memo this week showing her leading the field with 31 percent, ahead of Lawrence at 14 percent and Maasdam at 7 percent, and 46 percent undecided. A separate memo from the Maasdam campaign said the candidates were still largely unknown to the electorate, but his poll put Lawrence at 17 percent, Brink at 15 percent and Maasdam at 8 percent. According to both memos, support for their candidate grew after voters learned more about the three hopefuls.
Cash dash: Brink ended 2025 having raised $1.6 million and with $1 million in the bank, while Maasdam had raised $1 million and had $516,000 on hand. Brink’s campaign said she raised more than $600,000 in the first quarter of this year, while Maasdam said he brought in $700,000. Lawrence had raised $357,000 at the end of 2024, with $227,000 on hand. Meanwhile, Barrett had raised $3.8 million through the end of last year and had $2.2 million banked. First quarter fundraising reports are due next week, which will give an updated take on the candidates’ fundraising status.
Backers: Brink is endorsed by EMILY’s List and Elect Democratic Women, along with several state and local officials. Maasdam’s endorsers include End Citizens United, The Bench and a handful of local unions. Lawrence has drawn support from a handful of progressive groups, including National Nurses United and the Sunrise Movement, as well as state and local officials.
What they’re saying: Brink points to her decision last year to resign as ambassador to Ukraine as an example of how she would stand up to Trump in Congress. She’s also spoken about her experience as a breast cancer patient as she’s talked about health care affordability. Maasdam has highlighted his status as a veteran, which he shares with Barrett, and his service background, which includes serving as President Barack Obama’s military aide, and touted that he won’t take corporate PAC money. Meanwhile, Lawrence, a co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, has focused on housing affordability and says he wants to help families have security for things such as health care.
Terrain: The Lansing-based 7th District is a perennial swing seat. Trump carried it by 1 point in 2024, while Barrett won his race by 4 points. Inside Elections rates the race a Toss-up.
Wild card: The 7th District is considered a presidential bellwether, one of a handful to have supported the Electoral College winner in each of the past five presidential elections.
Coming up
Congress returns next week, with plenty on its plate. House floor action is still needed to approve funding for the bulk of the Homeland Security Department. The Senate is poised to hold another war powers vote regarding Trump’s use of military force against Iran.
Photo Finish
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