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At the Races is back for 2026, with the midterm election year upon us.
When we last published, the week before Christmas, the top story on Capitol Hill looked to be the fight over the expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies that went on to expire at the end of the year. The House was able to bypass Republican leadership to force a vote on a bill designed to revive those benefits for three years, and the measure appears poised to pass later Thursday.
But for now, that story seems to be pushed from the headlines, because that was before President Donald Trump decided to send U.S. forces into Venezuela to capture and arrest President Nicolás Maduro.
The focus will probably return to health care and affordability soon. The president plans to make announcements about paring down costs in the coming weeks, and congressional Democrats are eager to steer the conversation in that direction, seeing how it helped fuel a string of Democratic electoral wins last fall.
Still, when foreign policy becomes an issue in domestic elections, it’s usually because something is going wrong or the public is fatigued.
So, whether Trump’s Venezuela ventures or even his desire to take control of Greenland from NATO ally Denmark become flash points for the November elections would depend a lot on what actually happens.
The Senate’s 52-47 vote earlier Thursday to advance a war powers resolution that would prohibit any new military action in Venezuela absent congressional authorization will surely make CQ Roll Call’s listing of the key votes of the year. It got the attention of the president, who slammed the five Republicans who joined with Democrats on the procedural vote, saying they “should never be elected to office again.”
But whether it gets cited in small print in the deluge of Democratic campaign ads against the likes of, say, Ohio’s Jon Husted or Alaska’s Dan Sullivan probably depends on whether the Venezuela mission looks like a success in September.
For now, Trump is clearly trying to differentiate the intervention in Venezuela from the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, which did become a political problem for the GOP some two decades ago, contributing to their losses in the 2006 midterms.
Starting gate
RIP: Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa, a fourth-generation rice farmer from Northern California known for his focus on agriculture and forestry policies, died Tuesday at age 65. His death following emergency surgery further erodes Republicans’ narrow majority in the House, which now stands at 218-213 with four vacancies, two for each party.
Greene out: Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, the onetime MAGA stalwart who publicly broke with Trump over a number of issues, resigned from the House on Monday, one year before her term expired. A special election to fill her seat will be held on March 10.
Hoyer to retire: Rep. Steny H. Hoyer, the longtime Democratic congressman from Maryland and former House majority leader, formally announced Thursday morning that he would retire from Congress at the end of his current term. News of the decision came Wednesday night, with Paul Kane of The Washington Post having visited him for an interview at his St. Mary’s County home.
#CA26: The wave of older House Democrats announcing their retirements continued Thursday, with California Rep. Julia Brownley saying she wouldn’t seek an eighth term next year.
Recalibrating Jan. 6: Democrats in 2024 campaigned on a message that democracy was at risk by highlighting the harrowing Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol by Trump supporters. But in the run-up to the midterm elections, those themes will take a back seat to issues of affordability as well as a larger narrative about political corruption.
Comeback season: Nearly two dozen former members of Congress are seeking to return to Capitol Hill this year, proving the allure of Congress remains potent in both parties.
All eyes on MN: Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee, changed course Monday and said he wouldn’t run for a third term. Walz has been under scrutiny in recent weeks over a statewide fraud scandal after a federal prosecutor said last month that billions of dollars in federal funds may have been stolen. House Republicans held a hearing on the scandal Wednesday, hours before reports emerged of an immigration officer shooting into a car and killing a woman in Minneapolis, as Roll Call’s Chris Johnson reports. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s senior senator, Amy Klobuchar, is “seriously considering” entering the Democratic primary to succeed Walz.
Redistricting roundup: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis called for the state’s Republican-controlled Legislature to convene in April to redraw the state’s congressional map ahead of the midterms. Meanwhile, a top Kansas Republican said the state Legislature lacks the votes for a new map targeting Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids. And in New York, a state court began hearing arguments this week in a lawsuit challenging the lines of the GOP-held 11th District. The case is expected to be decided before this year’s elections.
Seeing double: Our colleague Nick Eskow profiles Trever Nehls, the Texas Republican hoping to succeed his identical twin brother, retiring Rep. Troy Nehls. A victory by Trever Nehls would mark the first time in history that an identical twin sibling has succeeded a member of Congress, according to a CQ Roll Call analysis of more than 13,000 member entries in the Biographical Directory of the U.S. Congress.
#WYSEN: Wyoming Sen. Cynthia Lummis is not seeking reelection this year, becoming the fifth Republican senator to announce plans to leave the chamber at the end of this term. The state’s at-large congresswoman, Harriet M. Hageman, who ousted Rep. Liz Cheney in a 2022 Republican primary, quickly announced plans to run for Senate. A crowded GOP field is likely for Hageman’s deep-red open seat, with Wyoming Secretary of State Chuck Gray and billionaire Reid Rasner already launching bids.
#NYGOV: New York Rep. Elise Stefanik ended her gubernatorial campaign last month and said she wouldn’t run for reelection this year. The GOP congresswoman cited family reasons for her retirement announcement and also said she didn’t want to use resources on a primary against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who entered the race last month.
ICYMI
Battleground updates: Army veteran Matt Cavanaugh, who’d been challenging freshman GOP Rep. Jeff Crank as an independent, has entered the Democratic primary for the 5th District. Elsewhere in Colorado, state Treasurer Dave Young has ended his bid for the 8th District, citing a family member’s health situation. Young’s exit effectively makes the Democratic primary to take on Republican freshman Gabe Evans a three-way race between state Reps. Manny Rutinel and Shannon Bird and Marine veteran Evan Munsing. In Michigan, attorney Jessica Swartz dropped out of the Democratic primary to challenge GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga in the 4th District, leaving state Sen. Sean McCann as the leading Democrat. In Montana, Democrat Sam Forstag, a smokejumper and union leader, is running against Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke.
#AKSEN: Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola is making moves toward a Senate run against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, Axios reports. An announcement from Peltola would be a major recruiting win for Democrats, who see the Last Frontier as a chance to expand the Senate map with her in the race.
#NY12: George Conway, a Republican-turned-Democratic lawyer and Trump critic, officially joined the busy primary to succeed retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler in New York’s 12th District. Conway had previously filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission in December.
#CA06: West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero is the latest Democrat to jump into the race for the newly redrawn 6th District. The seat is currently held by Democrat Ami Bera, who is pivoting to the bluer 3rd District.
DC drama: A former staffer of longtime Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, D.C.’s nonvoting representative in the House, is challenging her in the Democratic primary this year. Trent Holbrook told The Washington Post that he didn’t think Holmes Norton “was running a campaign that I thought would win.”
Endorsements: Retiring Illinois Rep. Jan Schakowsky endorsed Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss as her successor in a crowded Democratic primary. In New Jersey, VoteVets endorsed Army veteran Zach Beecher in the Democratic primary for the 11th District special election. The Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America Candidate Fund is backing Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, who faces several challengers in the Republican primary. Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi has the support of the American Federation of Government Employees in his bid for Senate. And Texas Rep. Julie Elizabeth Johnson is touting endorsements from 40 House Democrats in her primary against her predecessor, former Rep. Colin Allred.
Trump endorsements: The president has rolled out a series of “Complete and Total” congressional endorsements in recent weeks. In South Texas’ 28th District, he’s supporting Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, who’s challenging Rep. Henry Cuellar, the longtime Democratic incumbent whom Trump pardoned last month. Also in Texas, the president announced his backing of Army veteran Eric Flores in his campaign against Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez and attorney Chris Gober in the crowded GOP primary to succeed Rep. Michael McCaul. In Washington’s 4th District, Trump has endorsed Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse. And in Arizona’s battleground 1st District, Trump made a double endorsement, reiterating his support for former state GOP chair Gina Swoboda and backing former NFL kicker Jay Feely, who switched from the 5th District last month. The pair are vying to succeed GOP gubernatorial hopeful David Schweikert.
Ohio LG picks: Ohio Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who earned the support of retiring Gov. Mike DeWine this week, has tapped state Senate President Rob McColley as his running mate. McColley had been weighing a run against Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, whose Toledo-based district grew several shades redder after redistricting last fall. Meanwhile, Amy Acton, the leading Democratic candidate for governor, selected former state party chair David Pepper as her ticket mate.
#VASEN: Virginia state Sen. Bryce Reeves ended his campaign for Senate last month, pointing to a “serious family health matter.” His decision leaves Republicans without a top recruit to challenge Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, who is seeking a fourth term.
Guv roundup: Pennsylvania Democrat Josh Shapiro launched his bid for a second term Thursday morning, a day after his 2022 opponent, Republican Doug Mastriano, said he wouldn’t run. In Texas, businessman Andrew White has dropped his quest for the Democratic nomination and is backing state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. In Colorado, Republican state Sen. Mark Baisley has traded his run for governor for a campaign against Democratic Sen. John Hickenlooper. Also in the Centennial State, gubernatorial candidate and former Rep. Greg Lopez has left the GOP and is now running for governor as an independent. In New Mexico, former state Public Regulation Commissioner Jim Ellison has joined the growing Republican gubernatorial field. And in Maine, the GOP gubernatorial primary in Maine also grew more crowded, with former Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason launching his bid Wednesday.
A moment for millennials: Former reality TV personality Spencer Hills, who rose to fame on “The Hills,” is running for mayor of Los Angeles, an office currently held by Democratic former Rep. Karen Bass.
Eyeing 2027: Illinois Rep. Mike Quigley is running for reelection to the 5th District this year, but the Democrat says he’s planning to launch a campaign for Chicago mayor later this year ahead of the February 2027 election.
Impeachment: Illinois Rep. Robin Kelly, who is running for the state’s open Senate seat, said she would file articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Kelly is the second House Democrat running for Senate to file articles of impeachment against a member of Trump’s Cabinet, joining Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens, who did so against Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. last month.
Nathan’s notes
Could control of the House change party hands before November? That’s the question on the mind of Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales of Inside Elections after LaMalfa’s death and Greene’s resignation further thinned the House GOP’s already narrow majority.
It’s an unlikely scenario, one that we haven’t seen in the House in nearly a century, but it can’t entirely be ruled out, Nathan writes.
What we’re reading
Stu says: At the start of 2026, Democrats appear to have the momentum on their side, Roll Call political analyst Stuart Rothenberg writes, and that could build considerably over time, turning an electoral squeaker into something approaching a blowout.
California divinin’: Roll Call columnist and former Editor-in-Chief Christina Bellantoni shares some of her political predictions for the Golden State this year.
Campaign financing: NOTUS looks at how leaders in both parties are preparing for a Supreme Court ruling expected this year that could allow for greater coordination between party committees and candidates. Such a ruling could lead to significant changes in how political ads and other campaign operations are funded.
Lingering divides: The Indianapolis Star examines the continued fallout from the state legislature’s recent redistricting battle.
“He didn’t deliver”: Puck spotlights a new report from Speaking With American Men, a Democrat-led research project examining the political attitudes of young men. It found that many of them have grown cold on Trump after backing him in 2024.
The mayor and the influencers: The New York Times chronicles New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s recent meeting with content creators at City Hall. “Finding ways to elide the traditional, skeptical press is an increasingly common tactic for politicians from both parties, who use social media to promote their message, with little resistance, to the millions who rely on the internet for news,” the Times wrote, noting that some reporters from traditional outlets seemed less than thrilled.
The count: 7-to-1
That’s the rough ratio of governors-turned-senators to senators-turned-governors since 1900, according to a 2021 analysis by University of Minnesota political scientist Eric Ostermeier and an update for newer results from Roll Call.
Over that period, 23 sitting or former U.S. senators have been elected governor, while 155 sitting or former governors were elected to the Senate.
This year, two Democrats with gubernatorial experience, Maine incumbent Janet Mills and former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, are hoping to help their party flip Republican-held Senate seats.
Three incumbent senators are looking to move in the other direction: Republicans Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, as well as Democrat Michael Bennet of Colorado. Minnesota’s Klobuchar could make it four if she enters the North Star State’s open gubernatorial race.
Three sitting governors, all Republicans, are former senators, while there are 12 former governors — six Republicans, five Democrats and a Democrat-aligned independent — currently serving in the Senate.
— by Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly
Coming up
Friday is the filing deadline for candidates running in primaries in Kentucky. The Bluegrass State is playing host to several competitive Republican primaries this year — including the race to succeed former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the 4th District fight between Rep. Thomas Massie and his Trump-backed challenger, Ed Gallrein.
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: Of voters and Venezuela appeared first on Roll Call.
