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We have reached the point in the campaign cycle where there are too many ads flying and too many individual announcements to squeeze them all into this newsletter without it becoming the length of a book.
But suffice to say, there’s a lot still in play as early voting approaches.
There’s a bunch of Senate race polling from CNN/SSRS out this week, showing a somewhat mixed environment — but Democrats generally running at pace with or ahead of the top-of-the-ticket contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
The most intriguing finding from the surveys released Wednesday might be the ongoing potential for ticket-splitting in Arizona and Nevada. In Arizona, Trump was ahead 49 percent to 44 percent, with Harris leading in Nevada by just 1 percentage point.
That compares with Senate race polling showing Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., ahead of Republican nominee Kari Lake and Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen running 10 percentage points ahead of challenger Sam Brown. Brown, the Las Vegas Sun reported Wednesday, acknowledged that the current polling in the race has him behind.
“But can you imagine a scenario where, if President Trump wins but the Democrats find a way to keep the Senate majority — will he get anything done? And it starts with those confirmations right there on Day One,” Brown said Wednesday.
(Nevada Democrats were eager to point out that Brown was appearing with conservative commentator Ben Shapiro.)
We’re working on updating our lists of most vulnerable incumbents heading into the fall, but we certainly won’t be the only people taking note of the CNN survey results out of Pennsylvania showing Sen. Bob Casey deadlocked with Republican challenger David McCormick.
Of course, the presidential campaign attracts pollsters to races in the aforementioned states — our colleague John T. Bennett got into some of the presidential numbers as part of his dispatch on Trump’s appearance with Sean Hannity in Pennsylvania on Wednesday night at what was billed as a town hall but was merely a televised interview.
The problem with that reality? Senate numbers are a lot more limited in places where Trump or Harris is likely to win without a real fight.
Starting gate
Warren vs. crypto: Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a progressive icon, has a general election foe: a Republican who has drawn financial support from the cryptocurrency industry. John Deaton, a Marine Corps veteran and attorney who moved to Massachusetts earlier this year, edged out two fellow Republicans: Quincy City Council President Ian Cain and engineer Robert Antonellis.
Political Theater podcast: Amanda Becker’s new book, “You Must Stand Up,” is a story about the political fallout of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision that overturned the federal right to an abortion. Becker, national correspondent for The 19th and a former Roll Caller, figured this would be the biggest political event of her career — it might just turn out to be the most significant political event in generations. She discusses her book and more on this episode.
Pro-abortion leaders saw ‘frustrating’ Biden message: Leaders of some prominent reproductive rights groups say they are more confident that Vice President Kamala Harris will be able to appeal to voters, with some citing frustration with President Joe Biden’s abortion messaging, colleague Nina Heller reports. “It was a little frustrating that Biden can barely say the word ‘abortion.’ We understand what his background is, and we understood that he wasn’t necessarily the best mouthpiece for us around the issue, because he just really could not even say the word,” said Monica Simpson, the executive director of SisterSong, an abortion rights group for women of color.
Call him Battleground Biden: President Biden signaled Tuesday he intends to hit the campaign trail more often as the presidential race he left in late July enters a crucial phase. “In the weeks ahead, I’ll talk with Americans all across the country about the progress we’re seeing in their communities, roads and bridges being built, lead pipes being removed from homes and schools, [and] seniors saving significant money on prescription drug prices,” he said during a White House event. That came after he joined Vice President Harris at a Labor Day event in Pennsylvania and before planned events in Wisconsin and Michigan. All are key swing states.
ICYMI
Not your average GOP ad: Larry Hogan, the former Republican governor of Maryland who is running for Senate, is airing an ad that describes himself as an early critic of Trump and highlights that he “defended democracy” by sending the Maryland National Guard to the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, a day more commonly invoked by Democrats on the campaign trail.
Ad watch: The NRSC’s independent expenditure arm unveiled a pair of new immigration-themed ads against Rep. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan’s Senate race. Democratic Reps. Steven Horsford and Dina Titus are among those with new ads in Nevada. And Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes of Connecticut is up with her first ad of the cycle.
Help from friends: Win It Back PAC, a group affiliated with the conservative Club for Growth, launched a $12 million ad buy to boost Lake’s Arizona Senate campaign in an effort to help close the gap on ad spending between her and Gallego, according to Politico. Meanwhile, BOLD PAC, the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, is spending $900,000 on ads aimed at mobilizing Latinas in Arizona to support Gallego. The ads will run on digital and streaming services during popular reality shows and novellas and highlight Gallego’s biography as the child of a single mother and his support for abortion.
Switching sides: Former New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch is now supporting Maggie Goodlander in the Democratic primary for the 2nd District after withdrawing his endorsement of Colin Van Ostern. Lynch told WMUR he doesn’t respect Van Ostern’s campaign, saying it’s “one of the nastiest I’ve seen in my 50 years of being involved in elections here in New Hampshire.”
Notable endorsement: Democratic Rep. Rob Menendez endorsed fellow New Jersey Rep. Andy Kim for Senate and plans to campaign with him on Friday. Kim launched his Senate campaign the day after Menendez’s father, former Sen. Bob Menendez, was charged with bribery last year. The elder Menendez resigned last month after he was convicted on 16 counts earlier this year.
What we’re reading
Money talks: Republicans working on House and Senate races are sounding the alarm on the money race between the two parties, Politico reports. Jason Thielman, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the party could leave seats on the table without additional resources.
Questioning a deal: Democratic House candidate Adam Gray is facing questions about his investment in a real estate deal at a former Air Force base in rural Atwater, Calif. According to a report in the Los Angeles Times, Gray, then a member of the State Assembly, urged the state government to invest in redeveloping the site. A few years later, a company in which Gray is a minority owner bought four apartment buildings on the closed base from the county. “Adam Gray’s corrupt real estate deal, mixing taxpayer money with personal profit while hiding it from voters, merits an immediate investigation,” said the NRCC’s Ben Petersen. Gray’s campaign and company told the Times the property requires such extensive renovations that he has lost money on the deal. Gray is seeking to unseat freshman Republican Rep. John Duarte in one of the nation’s most competitive contests.
Write-in drama: Some Republicans in Virginia’s 5th District are threatening to write in GOP Rep. Bob Good on the November ballot, even after the incumbent lost a primary to state Sen. John McGuire, the Virginia Mercury reports.
Abortion comments: Bernie Moreno, who is running for Senate in Ohio against Democrat Sherrod Brown, blamed the success of last year’s state abortion rights ballot measure on low turnout among evangelicals, according to audio obtained by the USA Today Network’s Ohio Bureau. The Republican Senate nominee’s comments are another example of how abortion continues to prove a vexing issue for GOP candidates.
The count: $16 million
That’s the amount the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with ties to House GOP leaders, has added to its ad reservations. The buy includes $2.3 million in new reservations in the Washington, D.C., media market, likely to boost Derrick Anderson’s run for an open seat in Virginia’s 7th District. It also includes expanded ad buys in Michigan’s Detroit and Lansing markets, where there are a pair of open seats.
Nathan’s notes
Inside Elections has changed seven House race ratings, based on the latest private and public polling. Spoiler alert: The changes are split nearly evenly between the two parties. Nathan explains here.
Key race: #CA45
Candidates: Republican Rep. Michelle Steel was first elected to Congress in 2020, when she ousted Democratic incumbent Harley Rouda in what was then the 48th District. Steel was born in South Korea and was one of the first Korean-American women elected to the House. Attorney and Army veteran Derek Tran is seeking to unseat Steel after he edged out three fellow Democrats in California’s nonpartisan primary in March. Tran is the son of refugees who fled communist Vietnam.
Why it matters: The inland Orange County district is one of 16 nationally that are held by Republicans but would have been won by Biden in 2020 had the district boundaries been the same. Five of those battlegrounds are in California. Democrats point to an internal poll from mid-August showing Tran and Steel tied at 47 percent and say Biden’s decision to drop his presidential bid is providing Tran and other down-ballot candidates with a boost. Democrats have a voter registration edge, but Inside Elections rates the race Tilt Republican.
Cash dash: Steel has raised a total of $6.3 million, which includes $910,000 in loans, and had $3.8 million in her campaign account as of June 30. Tran has brought in about $2.3 million so far this cycle and had about $1.2 million on hand. (Tran outraised Steel in the second quarter, which Democrats say is a sign of his growing momentum.) Outside groups are also spending: Congressional Leadership Fund had invested $338,000 by the end of June to boost Steel and the DCCC is running digital, print and radio ads in support of Tran targeting voters of color, while House Majority Forward, a policy nonprofit associated with the super PAC House Majority PAC, ran TV ads targeting Steel on abortion.
Backers: Tran was endorsed by Planned Parenthood Action Fund, VoteVets PAC, the International Association of Firefighters and much of the state’s Democratic political establishment, including Sen. Alex Padilla. He was also selected for the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, which provides Democrats running in districts that the party hopes to flip with additional resources and training. Steel has the support of many of her fellow California Republicans, including former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as well as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Log Cabin Republicans PAC. She’s a member of the NRCC’s Patriot Program, which provides incumbents with extra money and support.
What they’re saying: Abortion has been a key issue in the campaign. Steel withdrew her sponsorship of the Life at Conception Act following an Alabama Supreme Court ruling that frozen embryos used during in vitro fertilization are humans. She said she was doing so because the measure lacked steps to protect IVF.
The race has also become increasingly personal. Steel has accused Tran of blaming “the political climate and the ‘Me Too Movement’ when he defended a Costco employee accused of sexually assaulting co-workers. She also questioned Tran’s assertion that he’s fluent in Vietnamese. “What I have seen as a voter who gets a lot of the mailers is professional and ideological criticisms on [Tran’s] part and personal attacks on Steel’s part,” said Jodi Balma, a political science professor at Fullerton College. “That is what has worked for her.” Steel accused her 2022 Democratic opponent, Jay Chen, a Taiwanese American lieutenant commander in the Navy Reserve, of being a Chinese Communist Party sympathizer.
Tran has sought to tie Steel to embattled Orange County Supervisor Andrew Do, whose home was raided last month by FBI agents investigating the alleged improper use of taxpayer money.
Terrain: The district includes Fountain Valley, Garden Grove and Westminster, home to Orange County’s Little Saigon, which has one of the largest populations of Vietnamese Americans in the nation. Biden would have won the district by 6 percentage points in 2020; Steel won with 52 percent of the vote in 2022.
Wild card: From 1985 to 1997, central Orange County was represented by Republican Bob Dornan, a fierce anti-communist, and many of those older Vietnamese American voters remain tied to the GOP. But younger Vietnamese Americans are more likely to be Democrats or politically unaffiliated, Balma said. “It’s really interesting to watch the generational shift,” she said. “We’re seeing more local elected officials who are Democrats. We’re seeing organizations that are not tied to or bound by the Republican Party.” And if those younger, less conservative voters turn out, they could flip the district for Tran, she said. “If turnout is high. Derek Tran has a big advantage in voter registration.”
Coming up
The Senate returns from a summer recess next week. Lawmakers must pass legislation by month’s end to keep the federal lights on — and avoid being blamed on Election Day for a possible government shutdown.
Photo finish
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