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By Mary Ellen McIntire, Daniela Altimari and Nick Eskow
A handful of House incumbents from Florida are fighting for their political lives Tuesday, as three states hold primary elections and California decides on a successor to disgraced former Rep. Eric Swalwell.
Rep. Cory Mills, a second-term Republican who is under investigation by the Ethics Committee over allegations ranging from campaign finance violations to sexual misconduct, is seeking to hold off several primary challengers for his Orlando-area seat.
His leading opponent is former TV news anchor Ryan Elijah, who outraised Mills through late last month and recently won the backing of Florida Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos. Gov. Ron DeSantis said last week that he did not support Mills. President Donald Trump endorsed Mills earlier this year, which the incumbent has pointed to throughout the race. But the president has not repeated his endorsement of late as he’s done for other Florida Republicans.
Mills isn’t the first House Republican facing ethics woes to come before primary voters this year. Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles lost his bid for renomination earlier this month, while North Carolina Rep. Chuck Edwards dropped his reelection campaign. Ohio Rep. Max Miller has remained on the ballot, although his race now looks newly competitive.
Elsewhere in Florida, Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz opted to run in the redrawn but safely blue 20th District after redistricting made her seat more competitive. The congresswoman, who is white, has faced criticism over her decision to seek a plurality-Black district at a precarious time for Black political representation. Several Black candidates are running, including former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick. Wasserman Schultz is the field’s fundraising leader and has touted her ties to Broward County.
Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz is looking to withstand a challenge from progressive Oliver Larkin in a redrawn seat that Trump would have carried by 9 points in 2024.
Retirements and redistricting have also opened up several seats that have drawn crowded Republican primary fields. Several of them feature wealthy candidates who’ve invested significant resources into their campaigns. That includes the primaries for the 9th and 14th districts, currently held by Democratic Reps. Darren Soto and Kathy Castor, respectively, which are now top GOP targets.
Florida voters will also pick their nominees in the special election to complete Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Senate term. Appointed GOP Sen. Ashley Moody, who faces three primary challengers, appears poised to coast to the nomination. Army veteran Alex Vindman, the twin brother of Virginia Rep. Eugene Vindman who testified during Trump’s first impeachment inquiry, and progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon are both seeking the Democratic nomination.
Meanwhile, Rep. Byron Donalds is the GOP front-runner for governor. Former Rep. David Jolly, a onetime Republican, is seeking the Democratic nomination.
Alaska
Sixteen candidates — including two named Dan Sullivan — are competing in Tuesday’s all-party Senate primary, with the top four finishers moving on to the November election, which will be decided by ranked choice voting.
Despite the large field, two-term Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan’s main challenger is Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola. But complicating the task for Sullivan: the entrance of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher and a Republican Trump critic. The senator and his supporters sought to remove his namesake challenger from the ballot, calling his candidacy a scheme by Democrats to confuse voters and give Peltola an edge. Last month, the state Supreme Court ruled that the other Sullivan could remain, though he won’t be identified as a Republican.
A state as red as Alaska should be safe GOP territory, but Peltola’s fundraising prowess, confusion over the two Dan Sullivans, the ranked choice voting system and a midterm environment that favors Democrats have combined to put the Senate seat in play. Inside Elections rates the race Lean Republican.
The Last Frontier is also home to a busy top four primary for its at-large House seat. Republican freshman Nick Begich, who defeated Peltola in 2024, faces a crowded field of challengers, led by commercial fisherman and educator Bill Hill, who is running as an independent. Hill has the endorsement of Anchorage pastor Matt Schultz, who was the leading Democrat in the race before suspending his campaign last month.
Wyoming
Republican Sen. Cynthia Lummis’ decision to retire set off a political scramble in deep-red Wyoming.
With GOP Rep. Harriet M. Hageman favored to succeed Lummis, there’s a Republican free-for-all over her at-large House seat. Among the nine candidates are former state Superintendent of Public Instruction Jillian Balow, state Senate President Bo Biteman, conservative activist Steve Friess, Wyoming Secretary of State Chuck Gray and businessman Reid Rasner.
While Trump has taken sides in the GOP gubernatorial primary and is backing Hageman for Senate, he has declined to weigh in on the House race.
California’s 14th District
Two Democrats are facing off in a contentious special election to succeed Swalwell, who resigned his East Bay seat in April amid sexual assault allegations. Progressive state Sen. Aisha Wahab finished comfortably ahead of Bay Area Rapid Transit board head Melissa Hernandez in the June all-party primary, 43 percent to 17 percent.
But the races has since seen a huge influx of outside spending on Hernandez’s behalf, including from the main super PAC of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. The pair are also set to face off in November’s regular election for the 14th District.
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