I am so ready to move on from an agonisingly close call last week, and to purge Hideki's final round performance from my brain I have put everything into my AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am betting tips.
After doubling down on the Hideki as my top tip at the WM Phoenix Open last week, I was perplexed by the former Masters winner's erratic final round performance, which culminated in a playoff defeat that handed Chris Gotterup a second PGA Tour win of the season.
Still, a runner-up finish and two further top-20s for the column at TPC Scottsdale at least evidences that the process was correct, so let's try and apply the same model and principles this week at an iconic PGA Tour venue.
With a strong field descending on Pebble Beach for the first big-money signature event of the season, I've whittled down the contenders and picked two European Ryder Cup stars, an in-form course specialist and an exciting talent with plenty of potential...
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Tips 2026 - Bazza's Best Bets
- Jason Day +4000
- Tommy Fleetwood +2200
- Jake Knapp +3300
- Shane Lowry +5000
Top Tip: Jason Day To Win (+4000) @ BetMGM
I have already tipped Jason Day once this year, and despite him not getting over the line I believe his game is trending in the right direction.
That's encouraging as he heads to an event where he has excelled so often over the years without winning. Day has made 15 out of 15 cuts, finished in the top-5 on five occasions and was runner-up in 2018 - highlighting his brilliance at Pebble Beach.
In case you need any further convincing, he has finished in the top-7 on six out of his last eight appearances in this tournament and arrives with a runner-up finish at the American Express under his belt.
His form on correlating courses like Riviera, TPC River Highlands and Torrey Pines is also incredibly strong, excelling on courses with fiddly Poa Annua greens and those with small targets/landing zones.
His approach play in the last 12 months has significantly improved, moving from 92nd to 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach, and he led the field for SG: Putting at the AMEX. Just put me down for a Jason Day win, thank you very much.
Next Best: Tommy Fleetwood To Win (+2200) @ BetMGM
European have done well in this event over recent years, so I'm backing Fleetwood to add this prestigious title to his extensive trophy haul.
Justin Rose won the event in 2023, as the only European in the top-3 of the leaderboard. However, in 2024 the top-3 was made up of two Europeans and an American and a year later European players took the clean sweep with all three spots (plus Lucas Glover in tied-third).
Tommy Fleetwood may not have had the fastest of starts to 2026, but he is someone who I can see winning an event as prestigious as this on the PGA Tour after breaking his duck at the Tour Championship.
The World No.4 finished T41 and 25th in his first two starts of the season in Dubai, but I'll forgive him for a little rustiness after a pre-christmas run of six events that included two wins, a runner-up and a third place finish.
Over the last twelve months, Fleetwood has ranked well across most of the Strokes Gained measures, particularly approach, short game and putting, so he will be hoping to build on a best finish of T22 in this event.
His correlating course form checks out, with a T10 at Riviera, T5 at Torrey and runner-up finish at TPC River Highlands, so expect a strong charge from Fleetwood this week.
The Form Pick: Jake Knapp To Win (+3300) @ BetMGM
Jake Knapp is having a very interesting start to 2026 and after doing a little digging I must say that I fell in love with this pick.
He has finished 11th, 5th and 8th on his first three PGA Tour starts of the year and produced some excellent approach play numbers at the WM Phoenix Open last week.
He has form on all of the correlating courses, mentioned above, and has impressed with his putting on Poa Annua surfaces in the last few weeks.
A scarily good stat that could convince you is that Knapp has made 97% of putts inside 7-feet across the first three events of 2026, so in what could be a putting contest with calm conditions - I think he represents great each-way value.
The Value Pick: Shane Lowry To Win (+5000) @ BetMGM
Shane Lowry came close to lifting this trophy last year, when finishing second to Rory McIlroy by two shots, and I fancy Lowry to have another decent crack at the title this week.
The Irishman has two third place finishes, two top-12 finishes and a top-26 finish in his last five starts, showcasing his impressive form leading into this, but now returning to a course where he has previously played well I think he represents value.
Lowry ranked 3rd for SG: Approach on the PGA Tour last season, so will have no issue accessing these relatively small greens, but it just depends on whether or not we see a hot putter in his hands - because that will ultimately make all the difference here.
Golf Monthly Expert Betting Panel Picks
Pick One: Viktor Hovland To Win (+2500) @ BetMGM
Hovland arrives in good form this week after a T10 at the WM Phoenix Open, which was his fourth top-10 in seven starts.
The Norwegian has a very good record around Pebble Beach, too, having won the US Amateur Championship there in 2018 before finishing T12th and low amateur at the 2019 US Open.
He last won in March at the Valspar and I think he’s due another title given his current form.
Pick Two: Shane Lowry To Win (+5000) @ BetMGM
Hovland’s European Ryder Cup teammate got off to a strong start this year with a 3rd-place finish at the Dubai Invitational before a T26 at the Dubai Desert Classic after ending 2025 T3-T12-T11.
Lowry gave McIlroy a good run last year to finish 2nd at 19-under-par, so I think he could well be primed to contend once again.
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Pick One: Justin Rose To Win (+2800) @ BetMGM
I backed Rose this time last year, and he delivered me a T3rd finish, so given his recent form at the Farmers Insurance Open, it's only right I back him again at far lower odds than 2025 (+15000).
Claiming victory at Torrey Pines a fortnight ago, he lapped the field with his seven shot win, demonstrating to me that he's playing some of his best ever golf right now.
As mentioned, the courses used suit his game, as accuracy is a premium over length, so I think Rose will have yet another strong week on the coastal layout.
Pick Two: Tom Hoge To Win (+20000) Or Top-10 Finish @ BetMGM
Although he hasn't had the best of starts to 2026, Hoge did produce a T8th at The American Express, showcasing that his game is there.
The main reason for a Hoge pick, though, is his excellent record in this event, whereby he claimed victory in 2022 and followed it up with a T6th in 2024 and a T17th in 2025.
He's providing large odds, which is why I'm leaning on the side of a top 10, but returning to a venue that you know well is always going to be a confidence booster.
Pick One: Si Woo Kim To Win (+2200) @ BetMGM
Si Woo Kim is in an incredible run of form right now with five top-10s in his past six starts and a T11th otherwise. All that's missing is a win, and this week might be the one where he finally crosses the finish line in front.
Although he has a handful of missed cuts here prior to 2024, Kim's ball-striking was nowhere near as good as it is right now where he's ranked second on the PGA Tour for SG: Approach.
His putting has left something to be desired for the most part of late, but Kim has historically produced a few excellent displays on the greens here, so it could all add up to the perfect week for the South Korean.
Pick Two: Robert MacIntyre To Win (+4000) @ BetMGM
It looks like the feeling among the team is that there could well be a European Ryder Cup winner holding the trophy aloft come Sunday evening, and my pick from Luke Donald's champion dozen is Mr MacIntyre.
Hopefully buoyed by the birth of his son Findlay, MacIntyre returns to action at an event he has only played once and finished T40th at.
However, while a poor putting display let him down at Pebble Beach last year, the Scot has been excellent with putter in hand since around late-May, losing strokes to the field just three times in 19 starts.
With confidence on the greens and a new perspective to life, perhaps, I'm backing MacIntyre to bring home the title.
Golf Monthly Expert Betting Panel Winning Picks (Since Start Of 2025)
Player |
Event |
Price |
GM Staff Member |
Richard Mansell |
Porsche Singapore Classic 2025 |
+6000 |
Matt Cradock |
Sami Valimaki |
RSM Classic 2025 |
+5500 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Patrick Reed |
Dubai Desert Classic 2026 |
+4000 |
Elliott Heath |
Eugenio Chacarra |
Hero Indian Open 2025 |
+3500 |
Elliott Heath |
Sergio Garcia |
LIV Golf Hong Kong 2025 |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ludvig Aberg |
Genesis Invitational 2025 |
+2200 |
Matt Cradock |
Laurie Canter |
Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship 2025 |
+2200 |
Jonny Leighfield/Matt Cradock |
Matt Fitzpatrick |
DP World Tour Championship 2025 |
+1600 |
Matt Cradock |
David Puig |
BMW Australian PGA Championship 2025 |
+1400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Tommy Fleetwood |
Tour Championship 2025 |
+1200 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Ben Griffin |
World Wide Technology Championship 2025 |
+1200 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf UK 2025 |
+900 |
Matt Cradock |
Tyrrell Hatton |
Hero Dubai Desert Classic 2025 |
+900 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Joaquin Niemann |
LIV Golf Virginia 2025 |
+750 |
Jonny Leighfield |
Rory McIlroy |
The Masters 2025 |
+650 |
Baz Plummer |
Tommy Fleetwood |
DP World India Championship 2025 |
+650 |
Baz Plummer/Jonny Leighfield |
Scottie Scheffler |
PGA Championship 2025 |
+400 |
Matt Cradock/Elliott Heath |
Rory McIlroy |
Amgen Irish Open 2025 |
+400 |
Jonny Leighfield |
