It can’t go on. It makes no sense that it goes on. And yet it goes on.
Aston Villa went into Saturday’s Premier Leage game at Chelsea having won 10 games in a row, looking to match a record set in 1897 and 1914. For an hour there seemed no chance they would achieve it, as Chelsea outplayed them, took the lead and could have had several more. But Chelsea are vulnerable with a lead, especially at home, and Villa have developed a baffling habit of winning away games having gone behind.
First Ollie Watkins equalised, the ball cannoning in off his shin and the post after he’d been set clean through and his initial effort blocked by Robert Sánchez. Then he got the winner with a deft header, just the fourth and fifth league goals he’s scored this season. Watkins perhaps would feel he is due some luck, but there is no doubting the first goal was fortunate. At the moment, though, luck is favouring Villa.
The last nine of those 11 wins in a row have been by a single goal. They’ve kept a clean sheet in only one of them. They’ve had the better xG in only six of those games and in two of those their xG was better by 0.2 or less. Their last five away Premier League games have been won after going behind. This shouldn’t be sustainable, but everybody’s been saying that for weeks and Villa keep on winning. The question is whether results will decline to match performances or whether performances could rise to match results.
Coming from behind is not just a trait of this season. Over the past three seasons no side has won more points from losing positions than Villa’s 54; 18 of those have come this season, 50% more than the team second in that list, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have scored nine goals. Two things can perhaps be said of Villa under Unai Emery. Firstly, that they have a self-belief that means there is never a sense that a game is beyond them. That is, to an extent, self-perpetuating: the more they come from behind, the more they believe they can come from behind.
And secondly, that Emery is very adept at changing games from the bench. While Chelsea had the better of the xG 2.1-1.4, Villa were dominant from the moment just before the hour when Emery made a triple change. Watkins came on for Donyell Malen who, with limited service, had struggled to impose himself. Suddenly the ball was sticking, while Watkins’s movement behind the defensive line cause problems. Amadou Onana came on for Emi Buendía and Jadon Sancho came on for John McGinn. That both strengthened Villa’s centre by advancing Youri Tielemans, which in turn released Morgan Rogers, and gave them the width they had eschewed early on.
Chelsea had 10 shots to none before that change; Villa had 11 chances to four afterwards. By the end, Villa were in control and could easily have won more comfortably. Not for the first time this season, Enzo Maresca was unable to react as a game started to slide away from him; the impression remains that he is better at putting together a tactical plan when he has time to prepare than when reacting on the hoof.
Villa have also developed a happy habit of having players suddenly do something sensational to turn games. Rogers scored twice at Leeds and at West Ham and also got two at home against Manchester United. The sight of him working the ball onto his right foot and whipping a finish into the top corner has become a leitmotif for the season. It was Malen operating from the flank who turned the game after coming on at half-time at Leeds. Watkins changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The contribution of Ezri Konsa and Victor Lindelöf on Saturday, particularly in the first half, should not be overlooked. At the moment, it’s never the whole tea playing brilliantly, but sufficient individuals within it to get them the wins.
Can they keep going? They’re three points behind Arsenal and, on that logic, as the season approaches its halfway point they have to be considered part of the race, certainly more than the club world champions Chelsea or the defending champions Liverpool. Tuesday’s away game at Arsenal will be a major test of that. Villa beat Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a game in which Villa didn’t only have the better xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side had achieved against Arsenal in the league this season.
Arsenal have put together their own run of single-goal victories since, winning three in a row without ever being entirely convincing. Tuesday will be a test of both sides – and if Villa win a 12th game in a row, it would become almost impossible to deny their title credentials.
This is an extract from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, a weekly look from the Guardian US at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Have a question for Jonathan? Email soccerwithjw@theguardian.com, and he’ll answer the best in a future edition.
