Team USA notched an enormous victory over Mexico on Monday night to remain atop Pool B and move even closer to clinching a spot in the quarterfinals. Mark DeRosa's team has a single round-robin game remaining tonight against Italy and many pathways to securing a spot in Friday's two knockout games to be held in Houston.
Pool B Standings
| Team | Record |
|---|---|
| United States | 3-0 |
| Italy | 2-0 |
| Mexico | 2-1 |
| Great Britain | 1-3 |
| Brazil | 0-4 |
With both Great Britain and Brazil already eliminated, it's a three-team fight for the top two spots. The United States, Italy and Mexico all have life, though they will face varying degrees of difficulty to earn their place in the final eight.
United States' path to quarterfinals
Team USA will be favored in its matchup against Italy and a fourth straight win would put them comfortably into the quarterfinals with no other help.
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A loss to Italy, coupled with a Mexico victory over Italy would result in a three-way tie with all teams at 3-1. That would trigger the tiebreaking procedures, which have already provided a fair amount of entertainment during this year's WBC.
The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record between tied teams and all three would be 1-1. Then it would move on to fewest runs allowed divided by outs recorded, followed by fewest earned runs allowed between tied teams. If that still didn't yield a winner, the next metric is highest batting average posted in games between tied teams.
That's a lot to process. And it probably won't get to that. But if it does, here is where things stand.
The United States and Mexico are the only teams that have played each other and the Americans allowed three runs while recording 27 outs (.111). Mexico yielded five while only recording 24 outs (.208).
What Team USA will root for if they lose to Italy
As stated before, a lot of math can be skipped if Team USA simply defeats Italy on Tuesday night. If they don't, they will finish 3-1 in pool play and be forced to watch 3-0 Italy take on 2-1 Mexico.
The simplest, most stress-free route to the quarterfinals then comes through another Italy win as it would move Mexico to 2-2 in group play while Team USA would finish second. If Mexico wins, however, it becomes time for the chart.
Winning isn't everything against Italy
The United States will be the home team against Italy, meaning they will record another 27 outs if the game does not end early by run rule. It will be of paramount importance for the American staff to keep runs off the board because they can, technically, clinch a quarterfinal spot with a pitchers duel loss.
For instance, if Italy wins by scoring two runs tonight, the United States will finish with five earned runs against 54 recorded outs (.093). Even if Mexico throws a shutout against Italy they will have five runs allowed against 51 recorded outs (.098), meaning Team USA would win that tiebreaker.
If Italy wins by scoring three runs, Team USA's run quotient moves to .111 and Mexico would need to blank Italy in order to best that. If Italy drops, let's say, eight runs in a victory over the Americans, Mexico would have more of a chance. In that scenario Team USA's run quotient would balloon to .203, meaning Mexico would need to hold Italy to five runs or fewer while winning the game (10/51=.196).
Yet another path
Team USA fans should know that in addition to all the ways laid out above to finish over Mexico, there are ways to defeat Italy in a three-way tiebreaker. Italy has not yet allowed a run or recorded any defensive outs. Beating the Americans and losing to Mexico will more than likely mean they'll be working with 51 total outs recorded (all of these could change if any game goes to extra innings). Team USA has the same path to beating the Italians in run quotient as they ways laid out above for the Mexico tiebreaker. Italy will have to allow at least one run against Mexico in order to lose and it's likely that more than that will be scored. So they also have to stymie the American offense to put themselves in good position. Those supporting Team USA should know that ever run they score tonight, even if it ends in defeat, gets them that much closer to the quarterfinal.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Here Are All Team USA's Paths to the World Baseball Classic Quarterfinal.
