The Albanese government has achieved a once-in-100-year victory in a byelection, capturing the Liberal heartland seat of Aston in eastern Melbourne.
Labor’s Mary Doyle won a two-party preferred swing of at least 6%, leading about 54% to 46% over the Liberals’ Roshena Campbell in the count on Saturday evening.
Although the result may narrow in later counting including postal votes, at about 8:30pm Campbell, whose primary vote sat below 40%, called Doyle to concede. The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, declared victory shortly after.
Albanese told an event in Tasmania celebrating 120 years of the Australian Labor party: “Today we’ve created history.”
The opposition leader, Peter Dutton, played down any implications for his leadership, arguing he had kept the party together and would “regather” before the next general election despite the setback.
The deputy prime minister, Richard Marles, said that not since the 1920 Kalgoorlie byelection had a sitting government won a seat off the opposition at a byelection.
“Tonight is a huge endorsement of our prime minister, Anthony Albanese,” Marles said.
Senior Liberals were quick to play down the implications of the byelection for the party’s leadership, despite Peter Dutton featuring prominently in Labor’s negative ads targeting the seat.
The shadow finance minister, Jane Hume, said she “cannot imagine there would be any mood in the party room for change”.
“I think the Liberals are at our worst when we talk about ourselves … This is a very strong and united party behind our leader. Peter has been amazing to work for,” Hume told ABC News. “There is no doubt this is a blow but he is a leader with a solid team behind him.”
Dutton told Campbell’s election event the Liberal party had “a lot of work ahead of us to listen to the messages sent to us today from the people of Aston – but listen to them we will”.
“We will go on stronger from this experience and work towards the next election to make sure we are in a much better and stronger position by the time of the next general election.”
Dutton conceded the Liberals’ stocks were particularly low in Victoria, noting that “we have been out of government 20 of the past 24 years” in the state.
He did not signal any changes of policy or approach, instead vowing that “I promise you we will never give in”.
Dutton told reporters that the outgoing MP Alan Tudge was a “popular local member” and the Liberals had stood to lose the seat in 2022 without his personal vote.
“I have had one test for my leadership and that is whether we can keep the party together – we have done that over the course of the last 10 months.”
Dutton said the right faction of his party “are unhappy that we have not made a decision on the voice” while “there will be those on the left upset about different policies and we need to distil all of that”. “But Victoria is a very difficult market for us.”
Campbell said “tonight was not our night”. “But our democracy needs a strong opposition, and the time will come, I think soon, when this country needs a strong Liberal government.”
Doyle, who contested the 2022 election against Tudge, achieving a 7.8% swing in her favour at that poll, benefited from higher name recognition while the Liberals claimed Campbell struggled due to the short six-week campaign.
Labor’s campaign tied Campbell to Dutton and the former prime minister Scott Morrison, and targeted her for living out of the electorate in Brunswick.
Doyle, a former union organiser and breast cancer survivor, also campaigned on her passion for Medicare and Labor’s cost-of-living measures including cheaper childcare.
In her victory speech, Doyle noted she had “lived in the outer eastern suburbs for more than 35 years” and thanked true believers who “knew that I was the underdog this campaign”.
“Aston has been Liberal since Sinéad O’Connor’s Nothing Compares 2 U was top of the charts way back in 1990.”
Despite high inflation and 10 consecutive interest rate rises, the Liberal campaign failed to persuade voters to blame the Albanese government for the cost of living.
Labor also credited its victory to a strong showing among Chinese Australian voters, in an electorate with 14% of voters of Chinese descent.
Keith Wolahan, the Liberal MP for the neighbouring seat of Menzies, told the ABC that Labor had proved “better at running negative campaigns”.
Wolahan noted he had started a group for metropolitan MPs, inviting country and regional MPs to help the conservative side of politics win back inner-city seats.
The Liberals now hold just two seats in Melbourne, Menzies and the neighbouring seat of Deakin. The party also holds two peri-urban seats to its east, La Trobe and Casey.
