In December 2024, astronomers in Chile spotted a new asteroid streaking through the sky, which they named 2024 YR4. What’s significant about this 100m-wide space rock is that it has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032.
Since its discovery, the asteroid’s probability of an impact with our planet has gone all over the place. At one point, the risk rose as high as 3.1%. This may not sound like a lot, until you realise that that is a 1 in 32 chance of collision.
As of February 21 2024, the European Space Agency’s (Esa) Near Earth Object Centre predicts the collision probability to be just 0.16%, which is a 1 in 625 chance – a huge difference. So why is there such a huge variability in these predictions? And is there really a need to be concerned?
