Warriors guard Stephen Curry is likely to be out for most if not all of Golden State’s remaining regular-season games, if you’re parsing the multiple reports of his injury Thursday. Curry hurt his foot during a loss to the Celtics on Wednesday when Marcus Smart dived for a loose ball and collided into Curry’s lower body. Though it appears Curry should be back in time for the playoffs, his injury could have an impact on how the postseason shakes out. Here are a couple of thoughts on the fallout of the Curry situation.
Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green have played only 11 minutes of NBA basketball together since the 2019 Finals, a deeply sobering statistic. Those 11 minutes came in three games—one of which Green only appeared in ceremoniously, the other was Wednesday when Curry sustained his injury. Golden State obviously doesn’t have to worry about the chemistry of that trio, though Steve Kerr is now going to be forced to figure out his playoff rotation on the fly. Kerr was finding success with the Steph, Klay and Jordan Poole group, but it’s still a little unclear what this team’s best closing lineup will be when everyone is healthy. At this stage in the season, the most dangerous contenders know exactly who they want to go to, down the stretch of a playoff game. The Warriors obviously have a deep institutional knowledge of how their best players coexist, but Kerr is going to be in a tricky position figuring out who works best together in the playoffs, especially when Golden State’s first-round opponent could be a high-powered group. Not having a firm grip on your rotation until the postseason is not typically how championships are won.
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So about that first round, how will Curry’s injury affect playoff seeding? It could get dicey for the Dubs. Unsurprisingly, Golden State struggles whenever Steph is off the floor. In 265 minutes with Green on the floor this season and Curry off, the Warriors have a minus-6.9 net rating. In 238 minutes with Green and Poole on (and Steph off), Golden State is still at a minus-3.5. Complicating matters is Andre Iguodala, Gary Payton II, James Wiseman and Moses Moody are all dealing with varying injuries of their own. Though GP2 is expected to return Sunday, even if that entire group starts playing within the next few days, they may not be coming back at peak effectiveness. (Listing Wiseman as a reinforcement at this juncture may be generous, anyway.) And though Thompson has not had a ton of playing time next to Green or Poole this season, expecting him to take the place of Steph as he still works his way back into the Klay Thompson of old is not quite realistic. All of this is to say it’s not as if the pieces surrounding Steph are perfectly in place at the moment, either.
The Warriors have 12 games remaining. If they go 6–6 the rest of the way (which would be an achievement, probably), could either the Mavericks or Jazz catch them? Both are 3 1/2 games back. It would be a tall task but not an impossible one, as both have had some hot stretches when healthy. If Golden State slips to fourth in the conference, that could set up a pretty difficult first-round matchup with either Dallas or Utah, not to mention a possible showdown with Phoenix in Round 2, which neither team likely would be happy about.
The Dubs are also almost certainly going to lose out on the two seed now, which means even if they remain in third place, the ascendant Grizzlies would hold home court in a potential second-round series. Remember, Memphis knocked out Golden State in the play-in last year. The Warriors aren’t going to fear anyone, though the idea of playing Ja Morant in a Game 7 on the road doesn’t exactly sound fun.
The bottom line is the Warriors will struggle without Curry, one of the most impactful superstars in the history of the league. And even if they hold their place in the standings, going into the playoffs with the team’s most important players having spent very little time together is going to make Kerr’s job significantly more complicated in the postseason. Golden State still has the talent to win a championship. Figuring out how to bring the best out of that talent will have to remain a mystery until Curry comes back.
