With an MVP candidate at quarterback (Josh Allen) and only one legit top-tier target (Stefon Diggs), the Buffalo Bills offense was a popular place to look for breakout candidates heading into last season. At the top of the heap were wide receiver Gabe Davis, who ended 2021 with a 201-yard, four-TD performance in the playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, and tight end Dawson Knox, who trailed only Diggs among the team’s returning players in receiving yards.
Ultimately, neither player delivered what the Bills, and fantasy owners, were hoping for, and Diggs posted more yards (1,429) than Davis (836) and Knox (517) combined. Through that lens, it’s easy to see why the Bills traded up to select TE Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick in this year’s draft as they continue to seek more receiving weapons for Allen, who took a beating last season that has had both the quarterback and coaching staff openly talking about reining in his rushing exploits.
With all that in mind, let’s look at what the tandem of Knox and Kincaid might bring to the table in 2023 from a fantasy perspective.
Dawson Knox
Inked to a four-year, $52 million extension just before the start of last season, Knox stumbled out of the gates, managing just 111 yards without a touchdown over the first four games. Things were marginally better through the middle part of the season before a strong finish as he scored in five straight games, including the Wild Card win over the Miami Dolphins — his six regular-season TDs tied for fifth at the position. Still, a 48-517-6 line showed minor regression across the board following his 49-587-9 effort.
With no meaningful additions at receiver, Knox should still be set for a significant role offensively, even with the selection of Kincaid. Expect him to remain the primary in-line option.
Dalton Kincaid
In what was viewed as one of the deepest tight end drafts in history, Kincaid was arguably considered the top prospect. While his blocking remains a work in progress, his skills as a pass catcher are enticing. To that end, general manager Billy Beane talked about the rookie’s “elite hands” and ability to separate, allowing Kincaid to add another dimension to the Bills’ passing attack. That he referenced Cole Beasley‘s ability to find openings in the defense underlines the belief that Kincaid will work as a move tight end, lining up all over the formation.
Despite the potency of Buffalo’s offense, there is absolutely room for Kincaid to step in and make an impact with nobody of note beyond the trio of Diggs, Davis, and Knox.
Fantasy football outlook
There are two big questions: 1) How will scaling back Allen as a runner affect the offense?, and 2) How much will Knox and Kincaid undermine each other’s production?
Fewer rushing scores means more opportunities for TD grabs in the red zone, in theory. Both offer top-20 fantasy TE appeal, but neither looks like a reliable TE1. Kincaid could have some nice late-season upside as Buffalo works him into their attack, while Knox is a steadier selection. Unfortunately, there’s an elevated probability both players will be frustratingly inconsistent plays from week to week.
