A pair of assassinations of anti-Israel militant leaders hours apart is threatening to set off a regional clash and upend already fragile talks aimed at ending the war in Gaza.
The deadly round of strikes, retaliation, and negotiations escalated Wednesday when Hamas' political chief was killed, hours after attending the inauguration of Iran's new president in Tehran. Israel has not claimed responsibility, but Iran threatened revenge against Israel.
It was the second assassination in less than a day to be blamed on Israel. On Tuesday, the Israeli military said it had killed Hezbollah commander in an airstrike in a Beirut suburb. The killing followed the rocket attack Saturday on the town of Majdal Shams that killed 12 young people in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Iran-backed Hezbollah denied it was behind the Majdal Shams attack.
The U.N. Security Council was expected to hold an emergency meeting amid efforts to prevent Mideast tensions from boiling over.
Israel is under fire on multiple fronts
Israel uses targeted killings and the perception of overwhelming force in Gaza to communicate with the region's other players — Iran among them — about the consequences of aggression against Israel. Now, Israel faces the threat of retaliation from multiple fronts.
In this cycle, the rocket attack on Majdal Shams in the north begat the assassination of Shukur. And Haniyeh's killing in Tehran came during Israel's 10-month war against Hamas in Gaza, which has killed more than 39,000 Palestinians in the seaside enclave, according to Gaza Health Ministry numbers. Israel says the Gaza war is its response to the Oct. 7 attack in which Hamas militants killed 1,200 Israelis and took 250 more hostage. Israel has vowed to kill Hamas' leaders in response to Oct. 7.
Against that backdrop, Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon have exchanged near-daily strikes. But they have previously kept the conflict at a deadly but relatively low level that has not escalated to full-scale war.
The assassinations of Shukur and Haniyeh could change those calculations. Iran has also threatened to respond after the attack on its territory.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in a letter to dozens of foreign ministries around the world that “Israel is not interested in an all-out war.” He urged a full cessation of hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border.
But he added a warning: “Israel sent a clear message: we will harm with great force whoever harms us.”
Gaza cease-fire talks in question
Concern about the cease-fire talks has soared in the wake of Haniyeh's killing.
Before the strikes, there were some hopes that Israel and Hamas might have been nearing an agreement to pause the war. The negotiations were mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States. Haniyeh was among the negotiators.
A senior Hamas official told journalists in Iran that whoever replaces Haniyeh will “follow the same vision” regarding negotiations to end the war — and continue in the same policy of resistance against Israel.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has urged the prime minister of Qatar, a key mediator in cease-fire talks, to continue working toward an agreement that would “secure the release of hostages, alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people and unlock the possibility of broader stability,” the State Department said. Hamas’ top political officials were based in Qatar.
Qatari Prime Minister asked on social media: “Can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side? Peace needs serious partners & a global stance against the disregard for human life.”
A long history of targeted killings
The pair of killings this week are the latest in decades of targeted strikes to be blamed on Israel, with several allegedly this year alone.
Weeks ago, Israel targeted Hamas’ shadowy military commander in a massive strike in the crowded southern Gaza Strip. The strike killed at least 90 people including children, according to local health officials. Deif’s fate remains unknown.
In April, two Iranian generals were killed in what Iran said was an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria. The deaths prompted Iran to launch an unprecedented attack against Israeli territory, launching 300 missiles and drones, most of which were intercepted.
In January, an Israeli drone strike in Beirut killed Saleh Arouri, a top Hamas official in exile, as Israeli troops battled the militant group in Gaza.
A regional war?
The complex dynamics add up to serious concerns about a regional war and which countries could get drawn into one.
“We’ve now seen again that Israel can target anywhere in Iran. But this time there is a question of the safety of the Iranian senior officials,” an associate fellow with the international security program said. “Israel is basically sending a message to the Iranians: ‘We can kill any one of you anywhere, anytime.’ And that is very dangerous.”
He added: “Iran has many long arms known as proxies, but they act as sub-states in many places, in Iraq, in Syria, in Lebanon, in Yemen, in Gaza, of course, in the West Bank and in east Jerusalem. So they have got their people training, arming, planning everywhere, and they can reach anywhere in the world.
“They can also hit Israeli or Jewish targets globally. And the question really is, what’s next?”
