For once, use of the word “historic” is justified in describing the toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s regime after more than 50 years of brutal dictatorship, 13 years of on-off civil war and a world of suffering. The people of Syria, or most of them at least, are jubilant. They should enjoy the moment. They deserve it. It recalls the celebrations that accompanied the fall of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi. Yet such memories carry a warning and a threat.
The warning is that joy can quickly turn to tears, and liberation to renewed repression, should the sudden collapse of hated but relatively stable authoritarian structures trigger an uncontainable descent into chaos. The threat is that the ensuing political and military vacuum will be contested by self-seeking actors interested not in justice and reconciliation, but power and retribution. In Syria, revenge is a dish served hot – and it’s back on the menu.
