RECAP: Asian markets rallied yesterday following gains on Wall Street, with South Korea's battered market making a record comeback, stirring hopes that the recent selloff in AI-linked assets may be near an end.
Thai shares staged a significant rebound on Friday to finish off a quiet week, led by big-cap Delta Electronics (Thailand), along with banking and energy stocks.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,587.29 and 1,635.87 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,623.64, down 1.3% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 94.65 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 10.92 billion baht. Brokerage firms were net sellers of 3.84 billion baht, followed by institutional investors at 3.67 billion, and foreign investors at 3.4 billion.
NEWSMAKERS: The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as expected, but three dissenting members favoured a 25-basis-point increase, noting inflation fuelled by renewed hostilities with Iran.
The 30-year Treasury bond yield hit a 19-year high of 5.24% on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold.
The FedWatch Tool now indicates a 57% probability of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting on Sept 15-16, as inflation could rise due to higher oil prices, tariffs and AI investments.
US GDP growth slowed to 1.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, from 2.1% in the first quarter, as fallout from the Iran war weighed on the economy. However, domestic demand remained robust, with consumer spending rising 3.2%.
US President Donald Trump said his Board of Peace had reached a "historic" agreement to disarm Hamas and all armed groups in the Gaza Strip, but Israel's response is still awaited.
The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady at 1% on Friday but stressed its readiness to continue pushing up rates to forestall mounting inflation risks.
The yen remained under pressure on Friday, trading at 160.33 per dollar, despite what market-watchers said was a major intervention by the Bank of Japan.
The Japanese government is preparing to reduce the consumption tax on food and beverages to only 1%, from 8% now, for two years starting in April 2027, to help households cope with rising living costs.
Russia will extend its gasoline export ban from July 31 through the end of 2026 to ensure domestic fuel stability after Ukrainian drone strikes damaged energy infrastructure.
The People's Bank of China injected 800 billion yuan into the financial system in an open-market operation on Wednesday to stabilise the market, as the yuan strengthened to around 6.8 per dollar, its strongest since February 2023.
The euro zone economy grew more than expected in the second quarter, at 0.4%, as surging investment in AI, ample government spending and several one-off factors more than offset a drag from high energy costs and the war in Iran.
The Bank of England held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% on Thursday but warned of higher inflation to come owing to the US-Iran war pushing up energy prices.
Amazon beat market expectations, reporting a 20% gain in revenue to more than $200 billion in the second quarter, with Amazon Web Services contributing $42.2 billion, up 37%.
Microsoft reported forecast-beating quarterly profit growth of 31% to $35.8 billion, on revenue of $90 billion, up 18%. The strong performance came despite a 69% gain in capital expenditure, most of it AI-related.
Meta shares fell 9.7% after the social media giant reported a 91% drop in Q2 free cash flow, underscoring the financial strain of its AI buildout. Net profit declined 14% to $18.3 billion, even as revenue rose 28% to $60.8 billion.
Apple's market capitalisation briefly surpassed $5 trillion for the first time on Tuesday, making it only the second company to achieve the milestone after Nvidia, supported by strong demand for its products and its decision to skip the ongoing AI spending race.
Apple has introduced a programme allowing US consumers can lease its iPhones and other devices, instead of buying them. They can choose to upgrade to a new version of the device when the lease ends, buy or return it.
China has begun producing deep-ultraviolet lithography machines, a technology crucial to advanced chipmaking, in a drive to reduce reliance on foreign technologies. Netherlands-based ASML holds 90% of the global market for the most advanced machines, which can cost up to $400 million each.
The US Federal Communications Commission said on Tuesday it would ban the import of foreign-made humanoid robots in a move that targets China, arguing they pose a national security risk.
Ford Motor on Tuesday lifted its forecast for 2026 earnings before interest and taxes from $10 billion to $11 billion, citing "resilient" customers who are buying the company's pricey pickup trucks.
Industrial profits in China grew 18.7% year-on-year in the first six months of 2026, edging down from 18.8% for the January-to-May period.
Hong Kong's economy expanded 4.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, the 14th consecutive quarter of growth underpinned by buoyant external trade and resilient domestic demand, officials said.
BMW plans to offer almost half of its Germany-based staff voluntary redundancy in a bid to cut 8,000 jobs by the end of 2027, a company source said. About 40,000 of the premium carmaker's 85,000 permanent German employees would receive the offers.
A major disagreement with the finance minister over economic growth strategies preceded the sudden resignation of Perry Warjiyo as Indonesia's central bank chief, sources told Reuters.
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul will sign a strategic partnership plan for 2026-30 during his official visit to Indonesia on Aug 3 and 4. The cabinet on Monday approved the five-year plan, which will serve as a framework for expanding cooperation.
The Anutin government said it would replace the controversial Land Bridge megaproject with a more modest "Missing Link" infrastructure plan. It will involve upgrading the existing seaport in Ranong province and building a 100km double-track railway linking Chumphon and Ranong.
The cabinet extended the 7% value-added tax rate for another year through Sept 30, 2027, to ease living costs and stimulate consumption. The government has the authority to raise VAT to 10% but no government has done so for three decades.
Thailand recorded a current account deficit of $3.5 billion in June, the Bank of Thailand said on Friday. The figure reflected 49% year-on-year growth in imports versus a 21% gain in exports, producing a record trade deficit of $6.5 billion.
The private investment index in June rose 0.5% from May, the central bank said, while the private consumption index rose 1.1%, a sign the economy was picking up.
Thailand's manufacturing production index fell more than expected by 3.1% year-on-year in June, dragged by weaker automobile and petroleum production, while tensions in the Middle East added pressure from volatile energy and freight costs, the Ministry of Industry said.
Thailand Securities Depository (TSD) confirmed that unauthorised access to its Investor Portal had exposed the personal data of around 200,000 investors, including names, national ID numbers, securities account details and some bank account information. No financial losses were detected in the incident, which affected around 4% of the 5 million shareholder records in the system, the Stock Exchange of Thailand said.
Energy authorities are preparing to relaunch and remarket gasohol E20 in the third quarter, in what officials describe as a more determined effort to reduce the country's heavy reliance on imported oil.
COMING UP: On Monday, the UK and the US release manufacturing purchasing managers' index updates. On Tuesday, the US reports trade figures and factory orders. On Wednesday, the US updates crude oil inventories, Japan and the US releases services PMI and the UK releases composite PMI. On Thursday, Brazil decides on interest rates, the UK reports construction PMI, and the US announces initial jobless claims. On Friday, Japan releases household spending while Germany and China report trade figures.
Locally, Kasikorn Asset Management and JP Morgan Asset Management on Tuesday will discuss their strategic partnership and growth plans. On Thursday, Roojai Insurance announces its business expansion plan.
STOCKS TO WATCH: InnovestX Securities sees a supportive backdrop for Thai equities after 2026 corporate earnings forecasts were revised up significantly. However, risks remain as renewed US-Iran hostilities and concerns over sticky US inflation could weigh on sentiment. Top picks are TRUE, GULF and SAWAD.
Asia Plus Securities recommends revisiting China-related plays, as Beijing is expected to accelerate fiscal spending to support economic growth in the second half after weak second-quarter growth of 4.3%, down from 5% in the first quarter. The brokerage believes additional stimulus would benefit SCGP, SCC, AOT, AAV, CENTEL, MINT, PSL, III, WICE, CPALL, CRC, AU, HANA, DELTA, STA and CBG.
TECHNICAL VIEW: Asia Plus Securities sees support at 1,587 points and resistance at 1,657. InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,585 and resistance at 1,655.
