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Bangkok Post
Bangkok Post
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Asean/SE Asia and the cycles of history

US President Joe Biden, left, and leaders from Asean arrive for a group photo on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington on May 12. For Asean to be able to thrive, the major powers have to be at relative peace. (Photo: AFP)

The simmering geopolitical tensions between the United States and China and Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine have turned the tide of history back to its historical norm. It is easy to see the global stage today as full of tension, confrontation, and conflict in a recurrent fashion. But it is worth recalling that merely 30 years ago, the world was in a different phase where a lasting peace seemed viable.

At that time, it looked like the cyclical nature of world history as alternating between war and peace could be put to an end with the right measure and mix of realisation and commitment on one hand and corresponding rules and institutions on the other. The "total war" started by Nazi Germany in Europe and Imperial Japan in Asia seemed to mark a turning point. The "European Project" was the principal by-product of integration and enmeshment that could ostensibly escape the recurrent waves of war and peace.

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