There’s preparing hypothetically for the return of Donald Trump, and then there is the reality.
With Trump’s victory confirmed, the Albanese government is now bracing for punishing tariffs on Australian exports, a shrinking world economy and a shift in the axis of global power – not towards the US but away from it.
While some well connected Australian observers of US politics insist the second Trump administration could be better for this country than many assume, there is concern in government ranks that Trump’s reputation as a disrupter will tilt things significantly to the downside.
Compounding the returning president’s power, the Republican party’s likely congressional control – of possibly both House and Senate – means no legislative handbrake on his inclinations, whatever they may turn out to be. That makes a lot of people very nervous.
His supporters, certainly in this country, say the strongman approach will serve America and the world well.
“Self belief is what the West needs right now and Trump has that in spades,” former prime minister Tony Abbott posted on social media on Tuesday evening.
But Trump’s unpredictability will also elevate the level of tension in global politics exponentially.
In economic terms, the 45th and now 47th president is expected to up-end world trade as he turns his country inward and applies a highly protectionist lens.
On security, the implications are vast. Trump appears unlikely to favour a nuanced ceasefire-focused approach to resolving conflicts in the Middle East. He is expected to support Russian president Vladimir Putin’s endeavours in Ukraine. And that may embolden China’s president Xi Jinping to more actively pursue his own expansionist agenda.
China stands to benefit considerably from the Trump victory. If the US throws its activist diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific region into reverse and retreats to its own shores, the nations of the region may well look to the other big benefactor. All the effort to persuade Australia’s Pacific neighbours that their future is most secure with western allies and not with China’s high-dependency chequebook diplomacy could prove fruitless.
China may yet be able to present its totalitarianism as a virtue – the stable alternative to an erratic force much further away.
And what if Xi persuades the American dealmaker to trade away protection of Taiwan’s independence. What happens then?
Nobody knows.
There is less trepidation about the Aukus nuclear submarine pact. With bipartisan support across the Congress and the enabling US legislation now passed, that appears unlikely to be significantly affected. At least, that’s the view right now.
But the world’s still-inadequate efforts to address the climate crisis are about to be dramatically undermined with Trump set to withdraw from the Paris agreement and place many countries under huge pressure – and give others the excuse – to wind back their emissions-reduction efforts.
And then there’s the already-powerful Trump backers – such as billionaire Elon Musk – and other wealthy rent-seekers whose influence will increase. What Musk’s closeness to the presidency means for global communications, social cohesion and everything else is very unclear. These kinds of figures pose challenges not even quantifiable yet.
In the short term, the Australian government is focused on what it can control as it contemplates a second Trump administration.
Via its highly regarded ambassador to Washington, former prime minister Kevin Rudd, the centre-left Albanese government has been working hard to build relationships with Trump confidantes and those who may become them. Senior ministers and the prime minister have had meetings with key figures in his close circle.
They’ll be looking for every opportunity to build on those ties.
For all the suggestions that Rudd’s past condemnations of Trump may be a setback in his personal dealings with the incoming president, the Australian ambassador has at least one thing running in his favour.
He also made a comeback, albeit re-elevated by his parliamentary colleagues and not the electorate at large.
Unlike Trump, Rudd only gets one number in the historical leaders’ lineup, not two – he’s designated the 26th prime minister, twice.
But when you’re desperate to find things in common, it’s somewhere to start.
